Calibration of 14C Histograms:A Comparison of Methods

The interpretation of C-14 histograms is complicated by the non-linearity of the C-14 time scale in terms of Calendar years, which may result in clustering of C-14 ages in certain time intervals unrelated to the (geologic or archaeologic) phenomenon of interest. One can calibrate C-14 histograms for such distortions using two basic approaches. The KORHIS method constructs a C-14 histogram before calibration is performed by means of a correction factor. We present the CALHIS method based on the Groningen calibration program for individual C-14 ages. CALHIS first calibrates Single C-14 ages and then sums the resulting calibration distributions, thus yielding a calibrated C-14 histogram. The individual calibration distributions are normalized to a standard Gaussian distribution before superposition, thus allowing direct comparison among various C-14 histograms. Several experiments with test data sets demonstrate that CALHIS produces significantly better results than KORHIS. Although some problems remain (part of the distortions due to C-14 variations cannot be eliminated), we show that CALHIS offers good prospects for using C-14 histograms, particularly with highly precise and accurate C-14 ages.</p

What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030. METHODS: Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020-2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies. RESULTS: Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19's impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM). CONCLUSIONS: Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination

Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: Required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background: India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this. Methods: We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Results: Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6-7 year-old children). Conclusion: To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure

Genome-wide association study with 1000 genomes imputation identifies signals for nine sex hormone-related phenotypes.

Genetic factors contribute strongly to sex hormone levels, yet knowledge of the regulatory mechanisms remains incomplete. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified only a small number of loci associated with sex hormone levels, with several reproductive hormones yet to be assessed. The aim of the study was to identify novel genetic variants contributing to the regulation of sex hormones. We performed GWAS using genotypes imputed from the 1000 Genomes reference panel. The study used genotype and phenotype data from a UK twin register. We included 2913 individuals (up to 294 males) from the Twins UK study, excluding individuals receiving hormone treatment. Phenotypes were standardised for age, sex, BMI, stage of menstrual cycle and menopausal status. We tested 7,879,351 autosomal SNPs for association with levels of dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), oestradiol, free androgen index (FAI), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin, progesterone, sex hormone-binding globulin and testosterone. Eight independent genetic variants reached genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10(-8)), with minor allele frequencies of 1.3-23.9%. Novel signals included variants for progesterone (P=7.68 × 10(-12)), oestradiol (P=1.63 × 10(-8)) and FAI (P=1.50 × 10(-8)). A genetic variant near the FSHB gene was identified which influenced both FSH (P=1.74 × 10(-8)) and LH (P=3.94 × 10(-9)) levels. A separate locus on chromosome 7 was associated with both DHEAS (P=1.82 × 10(-14)) and progesterone (P=6.09 × 10(-14)). This study highlights loci that are relevant to reproductive function and suggests overlap in the genetic basis of hormone regulation.We thank Roche Diagnostics Australia Pty Limited, Castle Hill, Australia, who provided support for the analysis of the hormones. We thank the volunteer twins for their participation in the study. Twins UK received funding support from NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (grant to Guys’ and St. Thomas’ Hospitals and King’s College London); the Chronic Disease Research Foundation; Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation, the Fonds de la Recherche en Santé Québec, The Lady Davis Institute, the Jewish General Hospital and Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation du Quebec. The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC project grants 1010494, 1048216), and Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital Research (grant PP2009/028). This work was supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust (092447/Z/10/Z) and Medical Research Council (MC_U106179472).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ejhg.2015.10

Sex differences in the association between plasma copeptin and incident type 2 diabetes: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Vasopressin plays a role in osmoregulation, glucose homeostasis and inflammation. Therefore, plasma copeptin, the stable C-terminal portion of the precursor of vasopressin, has strong potential as a biomarker for the cardiometabolic syndrome and diabetes. Previous results were contradictory, which may be explained by differences between men and women in responsiveness of the vasopressin system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of copeptin for prediction of future type 2 diabetes in men and women separately. METHODS: From the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study, 4,063 women and 3,909 men without diabetes at baseline were included. A total of 208 women and 288 men developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 7.7 years. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, we observed a stronger association of copeptin with risk of future diabetes in women (OR 1.49 [95% CI 1.24, 1.79]) than in men (OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.85, 1.19]) (p (interaction) < 0.01). The addition of copeptin to the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) clinical model improved the discriminative value (C-statistic,+0.007, p = 0.02) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] = 0.004, p < 0.01) in women. However, we observed no improvement in men. The additive value of copeptin in women was maintained when other independent predictors, such as glucose, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and 24 h urinary albumin excretion (UAE), were included in the model. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The association of plasma copeptin with the risk of developing diabetes was stronger in women than in men. Plasma copeptin alone, and along with existing biomarkers (glucose, hs-CRP and UAE), significantly improved the risk prediction for diabetes in women

Report of the Working Group on the Effects of Extraction of Marine Sediments on the Marine Ecosystem, WGEXT, 31 May-4 June 2010, Djurönäset, Sweden

ICES WGEXT Report 201

Report of the Working Group on the Effects of Extraction of Marine Sediments on the Marine Ecosystem, WGEXT, 11-15 April 2011, Delft, the Netherlands

ICES WGEXT Report 201

Pleosporales

One hundred and five generic types of Pleosporales are described and illustrated. A brief introduction and detailed history with short notes on morphology, molecular phylogeny as well as a general conclusion of each genus are provided. For those genera where the type or a representative specimen is unavailable, a brief note is given. Altogether 174 genera of Pleosporales are treated. Phaeotrichaceae as well as Kriegeriella, Zeuctomorpha and Muroia are excluded from Pleosporales. Based on the multigene phylogenetic analysis, the suborder Massarineae is emended to accommodate five families, viz. Lentitheciaceae, Massarinaceae, Montagnulaceae, Morosphaeriaceae and Trematosphaeriaceae