The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies

Global fiscal consolidation

The buildup in government debt in response to the great recession

Handbook for Family Planning Operations Research Design [Arabic]

The Handbook for Family Planning Operations Research Design, first published in English by the Population Council in 1983, was based on field research studies in Asia. This second edition contains revised and expanded sections. Where appropriate, examples from Latin America and Africa have been added. The introductory section contains a current statement on the process of health and family planning operations research (OR). New chapters have been included on selecting an appropriate intervention to test in an OR study, and on describing the main elements of the study intervention. The chapter on information dissemination has been expanded and a new chapter on the utilization of research findings has been added. The book is designed to help health and family planning researchers develop and write a detailed OR proposal. It also aims to help program administrators and managers understand the process of OR and the uses of research findings for service-delivery improvement. Although the book is not a text on research methods, it does provide key concepts and important methods essential to conducting field research studies

Handbook for Family Planning Operations Research Design

The Handbook for Family Planning Operations Research Design, first published in English by the Population Council in 1983, was based on field research studies in Asia. This second edition contains revised and expanded sections. Where appropriate, examples from Latin America and Africa have been added. The introductory section contains a current statement on the process of health and family planning operations research (OR). New chapters have been included on selecting an appropriate intervention to test in an OR study, and on describing the main elements of the study intervention. The chapter on information dissemination has been expanded and a new chapter on the utilization of research findings has been added. The book is designed to help health and family planning researchers develop and write a detailed OR proposal. It also aims to help program administrators and managers understand the process of OR and the uses of research findings for service-delivery improvement. Although the book is not a text on research methods, it does provide key concepts and important methods essential to conducting field research studies

Designing HIV/AIDS Intervention Studies: An Operations Research Handbook

This handbook has several objectives and uses. First, it is designed to help HIV/AIDS researchers develop and write a detailed operations research proposal. An appropriate use of the handbook is as a resource in workshops or courses on research design and proposal development. Thus, the organization of the handbook follows that of a research proposal, starting with identifying, defining, and justifying a research problem, and ending with how to prepare a budget. Although the handbook is not an academic textbook on research methods, it does provide a review of many key concepts and important methods essential for conducting HIV/AIDS field research studies. These features can also help HIV/AIDS program administrators and managers as well as health policymakers understand the process of operations research and the uses of research findings to improve HIV/AIDS service delivery. Most examples were drawn from HIV/AIDS operations research studies conducted in Africa, Asia, and Latin America by the Horizons program, a global HIV/AIDS operations research program funded by USAID and implemented by the Population Council

Photometric observations of 1856 Ruzena

CCD photometric observations of asteroid 1856 Rùžena were taken over a span of 10 nights in April 2018, yielding a lightcurve with a rotation period of 5.960 ± 0.003h and an amplitude of 0.65 mag.peer-reviewe

Biosecurity and Yield Improvement Technologies Are Strategic Complements in the Fight against Food Insecurity

The delivery of food security via continued crop yield improvement alone is not an effective food security strategy, and must be supported by pre- and post-border biosecurity policies to guard against perverse outcomes. In the wake of the green revolution, yield gains have been in steady decline, while post-harvest crop losses have increased as a result of insufficiently resourced and uncoordinated efforts to control spoilage throughout global transport and storage networks. This paper focuses on the role that biosecurity is set to play in future food security by preventing both pre- and post-harvest losses, thereby protecting crop yield. We model biosecurity as a food security technology that may complement conventional yield improvement policies if the gains in global farm profits are sufficient to offset the costs of implementation and maintenance. Using phytosanitary measures that slow global spread of the Ug99 strain of wheat stem rust as an example of pre-border biosecurity risk mitigation and combining it with post-border surveillance and invasive alien species control efforts, we estimate global farm profitability may be improved by over US$4.5 billion per annum