Ecological Niche and Geographic Distribution of Human Monkeypox in Africa

Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970–2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox

A systematic review of frameworks for the interrelationships of mental health evidence and policy in low- and middle-income countries

Background: The interrelationships between research evidence and policy-making are complex. Different theoretical frameworks exist to explain general evidence–policy interactions. One largely unexplored element of these interrelationships is how evidence interrelates with, and influences, policy/political agenda-setting. This review aims to identify the elements and processes of theories, frameworks and models on interrelationships of research evidence and health policy-making, with a focus on actionability and agenda-setting in the context of mental health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: A systematic review of theories was conducted based on the BeHeMOTh search method, using a tested and refined search strategy. Nine electronic databases and other relevant sources were searched for peer-reviewed and grey literature. Two reviewers screened the abstracts, reviewed full-text articles, extracted data and performed quality assessments. Analysis was based on a thematic analysis. The included papers had to present an actionable theoretical framework/model on evidence and policy interrelationships, such as knowledge translation or evidence-based policy, specifically target the agenda-setting process, focus on mental health, be from LMICs and published in English. Results: From 236 publications included in the full text analysis, no studies fully complied with our inclusion criteria. Widening the focus by leaving out ‘agenda-setting’, we included ten studies, four of which had unique conceptual frameworks focusing on mental health and LMICs but not agenda-setting. The four analysed frameworks confirmed research gaps from LMICs and mental health, and a lack of focus on agenda-setting. Frameworks and models from other health and policy areas provide interesting conceptual approaches and lessons with regards to agenda-setting. Conclusion: Our systematic review identified frameworks on evidence and policy interrelations that differ in their elements and processes. No framework fulfilled all inclusion criteria. Four actionable frameworks are applicable to mental health and LMICs, but none specifically target agenda-setting. We have identified agenda-setting as a research theory gap in the context of mental health knowledge translation in LMICs. Frameworks from other health/policy areas could offer lessons on agenda-setting and new approaches for creating policy impact for mental health and to tackle the translational gap in LMICs

Empirical relationships among resilience indicators on Micronesian reefs

A process-orientated understanding of ecosystems usually starts with an exploratory analysis of empirical relationships among potential drivers and state variables. While relationships among herbivory, algal cover, and coral recruitment, have been explored in the Caribbean, the nature of such relationships in the Pacific appears to be variable or unclear. Here, we examine potential drivers structuring the benthos and herbivorous fish assemblages of outer-shelf reefs in Micronesia (Palau, Guam and Pohnpei). Surveys were stratified by wave exposure and protection from fishing. High biomass of most herbivores was favoured by high wave exposure. High abundance of large-bodied scarids was associated with low turf abundance, high coral cover, and marine reserves. The remaining herbivores were more abundant in reefs with low coral cover, possibly because space and hence food limitation occur in high-coral-cover reefs. Rugosity had no detectable effect on herbivorous fish abundance once differences in exposure and coral cover were accounted for. At identical depths, high wave exposure was associated with greater volumes (cover × canopy height) of macroalgae and algal turfs, which most likely resulted from high primary productivity driven by flow. In exposed areas, macroalgal cover declined as the acanthurid biomass increased. The volume of algal turfs was negatively associated with coral cover and herbivore biomass. In turn, high coral cover and herbivore biomass are likely to intensify grazing. The density of juvenile corals was variable where macroalgal cover was low but was confined to lower densities where macroalgal cover was high. High coral cover and density of juvenile corals were favoured in sheltered habitats. While a weak positive relationship was found between scarid biomass and juvenile coral density, we hypothesise that high scarid densities may hinder juvenile density through increased corallivory. New hypotheses emerged that will help clarify the role of acanthurids, wave exposure, and corallivory in driving the recovery of Pacific coral communities