Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species

The impact of marine reserves on exploited species with complex life histories: a modeling study using the Caribbean spiny lobster in Exuma Sound, Bahamas

Most benthic invertebrates and reef-associated fish undergo a dispersive, planktonic larval stage prior to settlement and metamorphosis into the juvenile and adult stages. In some species, settlement may be decoupled from adult abundance at local spatial scales if hydrodynamic conditions or larval behavior do not promote local retention. Similarly, spatial variability in postsettlement mortality or secondary dispersal by juveniles and adults may decouple spatial patterns of adult abundance from those of settlement. as a consequence, spatial patterns of settlement and adult abundance may be functionally related in a complex fashion. Whether biotic/environmental factors control spatial patterns of abundance may have profound implications for conservation of exploited benthic marine species, particularly when patterns of exploitation are themselves spatially structured as they are under management by marine reserves. As part of this dissertation, a spatially-explicit population dynamics model for the Caribbean spiny lobster in Exuma Sound, Bahamas was developed. The model is stage- and age-structured, and features dispersal of larvae from hatching sites via advection by hydrodynamic currents and diffusion, active migration of postlarvae into shallow nursery habitats, density-dependent survival and dispersal of benthic life-history stages (juveniles and adults), size-specific fecundity, and spatially-explicit exploitation rates. The population dynamics model was used heuristically to investigate the joint effects of reserve design (i.e., size, location, number), exploitation, population regulation and larval dispersal via hydrodynamic currents on population abundance and fishery yield. Principal findings were that fishery yield and larval production were idiosyncratic functions of reserve size, substantially influenced by interactions between current patterns and reserve location. Also, management strategies which implemented a single large reserve outperformed those using a network of small reserves, a reduction in total effort, or no action whatsoever. Results support the efficacy of marine reserves as a tool for rebuilding overexploited marine populations and creating sustainable fisheries. However, haphazard reserve creation may lead to a false sense of security, and poorly-designed reserves can perform worse than taking no action at all. Thus, designing successful marine reserves requires knowledge of local and regional patterns of hydrodynamic transport and larval dispersal, as well as other species\u27 life-history characteristics

A Deepwater Dispersal Corridor for Adult Female Blue Crabs in Chesapeake Bay

In marine ecosystems, there is no empirical evidence for the utility of dispersal corridors in conservation, despite widespread migrations by mammals, fish, and invertebrates. We investigated the potential for a deepwater dispersal corridor (\u3e 13 m depths) in protecting adult females of the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, en route from shallow-water nursery and mating areas to the spawning sanctuary in lower Chesapeake Bay.https://scholarworks.wm.edu/vimsbooks/1128/thumbnail.jp

Efficacy of blue crab spawning sanctuaries in Chesapeake Bay

Sanctuaries can potentially protect a significant fraction of the spawning stock, and thereby sustain heavily exploited populations. Despite the worldwide use of marine and estuarine spawning sanctuaries, the effectiveness of such sanctuaries remains untested. We therefore attempted to quantify the effectiveness of the spawning sanctuaries for adult female blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in Chesapeake Bay. We used baywide winter dredge survey data to estimate the potential spawning stock prior to the major exploitation period, and summer trawl survey data to estimate spawning stock abundance within the Lower Bay Spawning Sanctuary and adjacent Bayside Eastern Shore Sanctuary during the reproductive period. Hence, we were able to approximate the percentage of the potential spawning stock that was protected by both sanctuaries after exploitation. On average, approximately 16% of the potential spawning stock survived to reach the Lower Bay Spawning Sanctuary and Bayside Eastern Shore Sanctuary. Even under a best-case scenario (i.e., crab residence time of 2 weeks), the sanctuaries only protected an estimated 22% of the potential spawning stock, which is well below the percentage recommended by recent stock assessments for sustainable exploitation (28%). In the worst case, a mere 11% of the potential spawning stock survived to reach the spawning sanctuaries. Hence, we recommend a substantial expansion of the spawning sanctuaries, as well as the complementary protection of other life stages in critical habitats, such as nursery grounds and dispersal corridors. Furthermore, traditional fisheries management measures (e.g., effort control) should be used in concert with sanctuaries to thwart impediments to effective implementation of the sanctuaries, such as redirected fishing effort.https://scholarworks.wm.edu/vimsbooks/1084/thumbnail.jp

A cross-ecosystem comparison of temporal variability in recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

As part of the international MENU collaboration, variability in temporal patterns of recruitment and spawning stock were compared among functionally analogous species from four marine ecosystems including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation for each time series and by representing the time series as anomalies. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in recruitment and spawning stock indices were examined among and between ecosystems and related to observed patterns in biophysical properties (e.g. local trophodynamics, local hydrography and large scale climate indices) using a wide range of time series analyses, autocorrelation corrections, autoregressive processes, and multivariate cross-correlation analyses. Of all the commonalities, the relatively similar cross-ecosystem and within-species magnitude of variation was most notable. Of all the differences, the timing of high or low recruitment years across both species and ecosystems was most notable. However, many of the peaks in these indices of recruitment were synchronous across ecosystems for functionally analogous species. Yet the relationships (or lack thereof) between recruitment anomalies and key biophysical properties demonstrated that no one factor consistently caused large recruitment events. Our observations also suggested that there was no routine and common set of factors that influences recruitment; often multiple factors were of similar relative prominence. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically very distant ecosystems, but biophysical causes of the fluctuations are difficult to partition. Keywords: Ecosystem, recruitment, trophodynamics, variation

A comparison of community and trophic structure in five marine ecosystems based on energy budgets and system metrics

As part of the international MENU collaboration, energy budget models for five marine ecosystems were compared to identify differences and similarities in trophic and community characteristics across ecosystems. We examined the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the combined Norwegian/Barents Seas in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Comparable energy budgets were constructed for each ecosystem by aggregating information for similar species groups into consistent functional groups across all five ecosystems. Several ecosystem metrics (including functional group production, consumption, and biomass ratios, ABC curves, cumulative biomass, food web macrodescriptors, and network metrics) were examined across the ecosystems. The comparative approach clearly identified data gaps for each ecosystem, an important outcome of this work. Commonalities across the ecosystems included overall high primary production and energy flow at low trophic levels, high production and consumption by carnivorous zooplankton, and similar proportions of apex predator to lower trophic level biomass. Major differences included distinct biomass ratios of pelagic to demersal fish, ranging from highest in the Norwegian/Barents ecosystem to lowest in the Alaskan systems, and notable gradients in primary production per unit area, highest in the Alaskan and Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine ecosystems, and lowest in the Norwegian ecosystems. While comparing a disparate group of organisms across a wide range of marine ecosystems is challenging, this work demonstrates that standardized metrics both elucidate properties common to marine ecosystems and identify key distinctions for fishery management

Lessons on Marine Protected Area Management in Northern Boreal Regions from the United States and Norway

In comparison to tropical reef systems, relatively few marine protected areas (MPA’s) exist in temperate or subarctic systems (e.g., North Pacific and North Atlantic) where species diversity is lower, abundance of individual species is often higher, and many fish species exhibit large amounts of movement during one or more of their life stages, especially as adults. A review of MPA’s in three northern areas—the Northwest Atlantic, Northeast Atlantic, and the Northeast Pacific—indicates that MPA’s can be useful management tools towards fisheries management and habitat conservation. However, achieving fishery goals, such as sustainable use of the fisheries resources, will depend on population abundance (relative to unfished conditions) and fish behavior and movement. For example, depleted populations of stationary species such as Atlantic sea scallops, Placopecten magellanicus, in the Northeast Atlantic and European lobster, Homarus grammarus, in the North Sea have responded positively to small MPA’s, whereas migratory offshore Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, and Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus, apparently do not appear to benefit from closed areas because of movement into fished areas. Efficient habitat conservation requires detailed habitat mapping on relevant spatial scales. In northern boreal systems with large remote areas, this information is difficult and expensive to access. An alternative strategy of closing and protecting unexploited areas has worked well for the Aleutian Island coral closure area in Alaska. MPA’s can be effective fisheries management tools when the species to be protected have been depleted and show a small to moderate level of movement, and reproductive success is ensured. MPA’s can be effective at preserving habitat when the design is based on scientific information and takes into account the impact on the user groups.publishedVersio

Time-averaged and time-resolved laser optical temperature measurements in water with Filtered Brillouin Scattering combined with LDV

A laser measuring system was developed and built that allows to optically measure temperature in water using the method of Filtered Brillouin Scattering (FBS). First time-resolved optical temperature measurements were demonstrated. Furthermore, the FBS-system was combined with an LDV to enable simultaneous measurement of flow velocity and therefore the system is also capable to measure the heat flow. Time-averaged temperature values were determined with good accuracy and, as a special highlight, also timeresolved temperature measurements have been demonstrated with temporal resolution in the order of approximately 10 ms, validated by comparison with fast thermocouple measurements. The overarching goal of the research project was to prepare the market introduction of a laser-optical measuring system for spatially point-based and time-resolved measurement of the heat flow in liquids, especially in water. In order to realize this, it was necessary to measure the local velocity and the local temperature in a liquid. The optical measurement of the local velocity has long been possible using the established method of laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV). Therefore, the heat flow measurement method to be developed should be based on this technology. Until now, there was no suitable optical method for measuring the temperature. In recent years, however, the physical phenomenon of Brillouin scattering has become one focus of measurement technology development. If a small volume of liquid is irradiated with light, the molecules in the liquid scatter back part of the light, which is known as Brillouin scattering. The spectrum of the scattered light depends on the local temperature in the liquid; and it turns out that this physical relationship can be exploited to develop a highly accurate, fast, and non-contact method for measuring temperature. In this paper, we explain the Filtered Brillouin Scattering (FBS) method, show a setup for measuring temperature and velocity in water flows and thus a method for determining the heat flow, and demonstrate the measurement accuracy using a calibration test bench. The temperature measurement accuracy achieved is in the order of 1 K

Laseroptische Temperaturmessung in Flüssigkeiten mittels gefilterter Brillouin-Streuung

In diesem Beitrag wird ein neuartiges, laserbasiertes Messverfahren zur Erfassung der Temperatur von Flüssigkeiten vorgestellt. Das Verfahren basiert auf der temperaturabhängigen Brillouin-Streuung von Laserlicht kombiniert mit einem optischen Filter in Form molekularen Joddampfes. Das Verfahren kann beispielsweise zur örtlich und zeitlich aufgelösten Erfassung des Temperaturprofils einer Rohrströmung eingesetzt werden. Der nichtinvasive Charakter laseroptischer Messverfahren verhindert dabei die Beeinflussung des Strömungsprofils durch Sensoreinbauten. Der vorliegende Beitrag führt kurz die physikalischen Grundlagen aus, beschreibt den Einsatz eines Molekularfilters und stellt die verschiedenen Teilkomponenten des Messsystems vor. Anschließend wird mit ausgewählten Messergebnissen für stationäre und dynamische Temperaturzustände die grundsätzliche Funktionsfähigkeit des Messprinzips nachgewiesen