It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success

The consequences of economic globalization on electoral outcomes have recently become a prominent topic of research. We complement the emerging literature on this topic by studying whether changes in a subnational region's trade competitiveness affect the incumbent's vote share in that region. Using a novel dataset that relates subnational trade competitiveness to election results in 29 countries over a 20‐year period, we show that this is indeed the case. We also show that this effect is most pronounced for elections where the clarity of responsibility is high. Finally, we find mixed evidence for a moderating effect of incumbents' economic ideology as a moderator. These findings also contribute to the broader economic voting literature

Nonlinear Differential Equations Satisfied by Certain Classical Modular Forms

A unified treatment is given of low-weight modular forms on \Gamma_0(N), N=2,3,4, that have Eisenstein series representations. For each N, certain weight-1 forms are shown to satisfy a coupled system of nonlinear differential equations, which yields a single nonlinear third-order equation, called a generalized Chazy equation. As byproducts, a table of divisor function and theta identities is generated by means of q-expansions, and a transformation law under \Gamma_0(4) for the second complete elliptic integral is derived. More generally, it is shown how Picard-Fuchs equations of triangle subgroups of PSL(2,R) which are hypergeometric equations, yield systems of nonlinear equations for weight-1 forms, and generalized Chazy equations. Each triangle group commensurable with \Gamma(1) is treated.Comment: 40 pages, final version, accepted by Manuscripta Mathematic

Targeted Amplicon Sequencing (TAS): A Scalable Next-Gen Approach to Multilocus, Multitaxa Phylogenetics

Next-gen sequencing technologies have revolutionized data collection in genetic studies and advanced genome biology to novel frontiers. However, to date, next-gen technologies have been used principally for whole genome sequencing and transcriptome sequencing. Yet many questions in population genetics and systematics rely on sequencing specific genes of known function or diversity levels. Here, we describe a targeted amplicon sequencing (TAS) approach capitalizing on next-gen capacity to sequence large numbers of targeted gene regions from a large number of samples. Our TAS approach is easily scalable, simple in execution, neither time-nor labor-intensive, relatively inexpensive, and can be applied to a broad diversity of organisms and/or genes. Our TAS approach includes a bioinformatic application, BarcodeCrucher, to take raw next-gen sequence reads and perform quality control checks and convert the data into FASTA format organized by gene and sample, ready for phylogenetic analyses. We demonstrate our approach by sequencing targeted genes of known phylogenetic utility to estimate a phylogeny for the Pancrustacea. We generated data from 44 taxa using 68 different 10-bp multiplexing identifiers. The overall quality of data produced was robust and was informative for phylogeny estimation. The potential for this method to produce copious amounts of data from a single 454 plate (e.g., 325 taxa for 24 loci) significantly reduces sequencing expenses incurred from traditional Sanger sequencing. We further discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this method, while offering suggestions to enhance the approach

The SPARC water vapour assessment II: biases and drifts of water vapour satellite data records with respect to frost point hygrometer records

Satellite data records of stratospheric water vapour have been compared to balloon-borne frost point hygrometer (FP) profiles that are coincident in space and time. The satellite data records of 15 different instruments cover water vapour data available from January 2000 through December 2016. The hygrometer data are from 27 stations all over the world in the same period. For the comparison, real or constructed averaging kernels have been applied to the hygrometer profiles to adjust them to the measurement characteristics of the satellite instruments. For bias evaluation, we have compared satellite profiles averaged over the available temporal coverage to the means of coincident FP profiles for individual stations. For drift determinations, we analysed time series of relative differences between spatiotemporally coincident satellite and hygrometer profiles at individual stations. In a synopsis we have also calculated the mean biases and drifts (and their respective uncertainties) for each satellite record over all applicable hygrometer stations in three altitude ranges (10–30 hPa, 30–100 hPa, and 100 hPa to tropopause). Most of the satellite data have biases <10 % and average drifts <1 % yr−1 in at least one of the respective altitude ranges. Virtually all biases are significant in the sense that their uncertainty range in terms of twice the standard error of the mean does not include zero. Statistically significant drifts (95 % confidence) are detected for 35 % of the ≈ 1200 time series of relative differences between satellites and hygrometers

International variation in childhood cancer mortality rates from 2001 to 2015: Comparison of trends in the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership countries

Despite improved survival rates, cancer remains one of the most common causes of childhood death. The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) showed variation in cancer survival for adults. We aimed to assess and compare trends over time in cancer mortality between children, adolescents and young adults (AYAs) and adults in the six countries involved in the ICBP: United Kingdom, Denmark, Australia, Canada, Norway and Sweden. Trends in mortality between 2001 and 2015 in the six original ICBP countries were examined. Age standardised mortality rates (ASR per million) were calculated for all cancers, leukaemia, malignant and benign central nervous system (CNS) tumours, and non-CNS solid tumours. ASRs were reported for children (age 0-14 years), AYAs aged 15 to 39 years and adults aged 40 years and above. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) in mortality rates per country were estimated using Joinpoint regression. For all cancers combined, significant temporal reductions were observed in all countries and all age groups. However, the overall AAPC was greater for children (-2.9; 95% confidence interval = -4.0 to -1.7) compared to AYAs (-1.8; -2.1 to -1.5) and adults aged >40 years (-1.5; -1.6 to -1.4). This pattern was mirrored for leukaemia, CNS tumours and non-CNS solid tumours, with the difference being most pronounced for leukaemia: AAPC for children -4.6 (-6.1 to -3.1) vs AYAs -3.2 (-4.2 to -2.1) and over 40s -1.1 (-1.3 to -0.8). AAPCs varied between countries in children for all cancers except leukaemia, and in adults over 40 for all cancers combined, but not in subgroups. Improvements in cancer mortality rates in ICBP countries have been most marked among children aged 0 to 14 in comparison to 15 to 39 and over 40 year olds. This may reflect better care, including centralised service provision, treatment protocols and higher trial recruitment rates in children compared to older patients.</p

Severity of COVID-19 in children with cancer : Report from the United Kingdom Paediatric Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project

BACKGROUND: Children with cancer are frequently immunocompromised. While children are generally thought to be at less risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults, comprehensive population-based evidence for the risk in children with cancer is unavailable. We aimed to produce evidence of the incidence and outcomes from SARS-CoV-2 in children with cancer attending all hospitals treating this population across the UK. METHODS: Retrospective and prospective observational study of all children in the UK under 16 diagnosed with cancer through data collection from all hospitals providing cancer care to this population. Eligible patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The primary end-point was death, discharge or end of active care for COVID-19 for those remaining in hospital. RESULTS: Between 12 March 2020 and 31 July 2020, 54 cases were identified: 15 (28%) were asymptomatic, 34 (63%) had mild infections and 5 (10%) moderate, severe or critical infections. No patients died and only three patients required intensive care support due to COVID-19. Estimated incidence of hospital identified SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer under 16 was 3%. CONCLUSIONS: Children with cancer with SARS-CoV-2 infection do not appear at increased risk of severe infection compared to the general paediatric population. This is reassuring and supports the continued delivery of standard treatment

The rise and fall of the king : the correlation between FO Aquarii's low states and the White Dwarf's Spindown

The intermediate polar FO Aquarii experienced its first-reported low-accretion states in 2016, 2017, and 2018. We establish that these low states occurred shortly after the system's white dwarf (WD) began spinning down, after having spent a quarter-century spinning up. FO Aquarii is the only intermediate polar whose period derivative has undergone a sign change, and it has now done so twice. By combining our spin-pulse timings with previous data, we determine that the WD's spin period has varied quasi-sinusoidally since the system's discovery, and an extrapolation predicts that the white dwarf was spinning down during newly discovered low states in photographic plates from 1964, 1965, and 1974. Thus, FO Aquarii's low states appear to occur exclusively during epochs of spindown. Additionally, our time-series photometry of the 2016-18 low states reveals that the mode of accretion is extremely sensitive to the accretion rate; when the system is fainter than V~14.0, the accretion onto the WD is largely stream-fed, but when it is brighter, it is almost exclusively disk-fed. The system's grazing eclipse remained detectable throughout all observations, confirming the uninterrupted presence of a disk-like structure, regardless of the accretion state. Our observations are consistent with theoretical predictions that during the low states, the accretion disk dissipates into a ring of diamagnetic blobs. Finally, a new XMM-Newton observation from 2017 indicates that the system's anomalously soft X-ray spectrum and diminished X-ray luminosity in the wake of the 2016 low state appear to be long-lasting changes compared to pre-2016 observations.peer-reviewe

Isometric handgrip as an adjunct for blood pressure control: a primer for clinicians

Considered a global health crisis by the World Health Organization, hypertension (HTN) is the leading risk factor for death and disability. The majority of treated patients do not attain evidence-based clinical targets, which increases the risk of potentially fatal complications. HTN is the most common chronic condition seen in primary care; thus, implementing therapies that lower and maintain BP to within-target ranges is of tremendous public health importance. Isometric handgrip (IHG) training is a simple intervention endorsed by the American Heart Association as a potential adjuvant BP-lowering treatment. With larger reductions noted in HTN patients, IHG training may be especially beneficial for those who (a) have difficulties continuing or increasing drug-based treatment; (b) are unable to attain BP control despite optimal treatment; (c) have pre-HTN or low-risk stage I mild HTN; and (d) wish to avoid medications or have less pill burden. IHG training is not routinely prescribed in clinical practice. To shift this paradigm, we focus on (1) the challenges of current HTN management strategies; (2) the effect of IHG training; (3) IHG prescription; (4) characterizing the population for whom it works best; (5) clinical relevance; and (6) important next steps to foster broader implementation by clinical practitioners