Risk management strategies for managing natural disaster risks: A case study in Shiraz City, Iran

Almost all parts of Iran are seismic hazard prone areas and due to the low quality of constructions as well the increase of exposure in urban areas, recent earthquake events caused unacceptable huge losses, both in human and economic terms. To assess the resilience of various risk bearers, including the government as well as private sector entities, the resources to cope with potential future events as well as possible interdependencies during the occurrence have to be analyzed in detail. Furthermore, to pro-actively act against possible future extremes with risk hedging instruments such as insurance, the underlying risk has to be determined in quantitative manner. This paper suggest how to combine both, the coping dimension as well as the risk dimension, to determine possible risk management strategies which may be feasible in the Iranian context. The focus is specifically on risk instruments, such as insurance, for the Shiraz region in Iran, where the newly produced probabilistic loss estimates are available which are subsequently used to analyze possible insurance schemes and for determining corresponding premium payments as well as affordability. The paper discusses how such risk instruments can be embedded within an integrated framework and which additional options, such as risk reduction or risk pooling, would be beneficial to lower premiums to affordable levels

Earthquake risk modeling for the evaluation of losses to property owners in the metropolitan area of Shiraz

Natural disasters can cause huge human and economic losses, and subsequent operation efforts in disaster relief, recovery and construction by the government, the private sector stakeholders as well as international donors can significantly drain their resources from other non-disaster related pre-planned investments. As a consequence, there is now a paradigm shift for dealing with extremes from after the event approaches to more pro-active ones, the later one including risk reduction and risk financing options. However, reliable and quantitative up-to-date estimation of the underlying risks is of outmost importance towards developing effective risk management strategies as well as risk reduction activities. This is even more so the case for countries that are highly exposed to natural hazards, such as earthquake risk in Iran. This paper focuses on earthquake risk for Shiraz, the 4th largest city in Iran located in a high seismic active hazard zone with high socio-economic and historical importance for the country. It is for the first time that such an assessment for the region is performed and therefore the results should shed some light on potential risks with a probability based setting which could guide current earthquake related policy processes in the region. A catastrophe modeling approach is adopted to assess risk and a detailed analysis of potential economic losses as well as vulnerability assessments for assets within district 1 is performed. Via combining the hazard, exposure and vulnerability an Exceedance Probability (EP) curve for assets as well as human losses are constructed. The EP curve represents a powerful tool for the assessment of feasible risk reduction strategies as well as cost-benefit analysis for these strategies. An approach is suggested how this could be achieved within an integrative framework

Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process?

The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A uniquely defined function is derived which quantitatively predicts the expected average outcome of a soccer match in terms of the fitness of both teams. It is checked whether temporary fitness fluctuations of a team hamper the predictability of a soccer match. To a very good approximation scoring goals during a match can be characterized as independent Poissonian processes with pre-determined expectation values. Minor correlations give rise to an increase of the number of draws. The non-Poissonian overall goal distribution is just a consequence of the fitness distribution among different teams. The limits of predictability of soccer matches are quantified. Our model-free classification of the underlying ingredients determining the outcome of soccer matches can be generalized to different types of sports events

Numerical indications of a q-generalised central limit theorem

We provide numerical indications of the $q$-generalised central limit theorem that has been conjectured (Tsallis 2004) in nonextensive statistical mechanics. We focus on $N$ binary random variables correlated in a {\it scale-invariant} way. The correlations are introduced by imposing the Leibnitz rule on a probability set based on the so-called $q$-product with $q \le 1$. We show that, in the large $N$ limit (and after appropriate centering, rescaling, and symmetrisation), the emerging distributions are $q_e$-Gaussians, i.e., $p(x) \propto [1-(1-q_e) \beta(N) x^2]^{1/(1-q_e)}$, with $q_e=2-\frac{1}{q}$, and with coefficients $\beta(N)$ approaching finite values $\beta(\infty)$. The particular case $q=q_e=1$ recovers the celebrated de Moivre-Laplace theorem.Comment: Minor improvements and corrections have been introduced in the new version. 7 pages including 4 figure

Reflections on ten years of using economics games and experiments in teaching

In this paper, the author reflects on his 10 years’ experience of using games and experiments and in the process develops a type of practitioner’s guide. The existing quantitative and qualitative evidence on the impact of using games on student learning is reviewed. On balance, a positive effect, on measures of attainment, is found in the literature. Given these findings, it is surprising that there is also evidence in the UK and US that they are not widely used. Some factors are discussed that might deter tutors from employing them. Unsurprisingly, one of these is the additional cost, which might make the use of online games seem more attractive, given the way results can be automatically recorded. However, some relatively low-cost paper-based games were found to have significant advantages. In particular, they appear to facilitate social interaction which has a positive impact on student motivation and learning. One popular and effective paper-based game is discussed in some detail. A number of recommendations are provided on how to implement the game in order to maximise the learning benefits it can provide. Some ideas on how to maximise the learning benefits from using games more generally are also considered

An Edgeworth expansion for finite population L-statistics

In this paper, we consider the one-term Edgeworth expansion for finite population L-statistics. We provide an explicit formula for the Edgeworth correction term and give sufficient conditions for the validity of the expansion which are expressed in terms of the weight function that defines the statistics and moment conditions.Comment: 14 pages. Minor revisions. Some explanatory comments and a numerical example were added. Lith. Math. J. (to appear

Physical Resilience of the Electricity Transmission Grid against Earthquake: Analysis of a Prototype Model

Increasing number of power supply interruptions due to earthquakes leads to heavy direct and indirect economic losses and indicates the importance of resilience of electric power networks. The present study, focusing on seismic resilience of the electricity transmission grid, is looking to develop a basic framework for calculating power grid performance and resilience. This research, based on the network performance analysis and the graph theory, is using a prototype model of the electricity transmission grid to calculate the average performance of the system over recovery time, as the system resilience. This research distinguishes between the damaged facilities in the network by classifying damage levels to different degrees between zero and one and assigning performance values to each level to go beyond the binary statement of connectivity analysis, while having fast and simple calculations

Why we can no longer ignore consecutive disasters

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies