ALBATROSS cruise report

This proposal seeks support for a study of the influence of the Scotia Sea on global ocean circulation. During a 35 day research cruise using RRS James Clark Ross, we shall undertake a high quality hydrographic and tracer survey of the southwest Atlantic in the form of an enclosed box. This box incorporates repeats of three hydrographic sections completed during the last decade, so we shall detect any changes in water mass properties. It crosses the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) twice and so enables us to quantify its transport. The Scotia Sea is a region believed to exhibit intense water mass modi?cation. Deep waters from the Weddell Sea escape through narrow passages into the Argentine Basin and are also entrained into the eastward flowing ACC. Deep waters flowing east through Drake Passage are believed to undergo freshening and cooling in the Scotia Sea. When taken together with previous hydrographic sections, our survey will complete a set of boxes, so we shall use inverse techniques to determine horizontal and surface fluxes of heat and freshwater in the Weddell Sea, Scotia Sea and Southwest Atlantic. Thus we shall quantify the r^ole of the Scotia Sea in the ocean-atmosphere climate system

Dynamical ocean forcing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation at lead times of up to five months

We show that a simple three-dimensional ocean model linearised about a resting basic state can accurately simulate the dynamical ocean response to wind forcing by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This includes the propagation of equatorial waves in the Indian Ocean, from the generation of oceanic equatorial Kelvin waves to the arrival of downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby waves in the western Indian Ocean, where they have been shown to trigger MJO convective activity. Simulations with idealised wind forcing suggest that the latitudinal width of this forcing plays a crucial role in determining the potential for such feedbacks. Forcing the model with composite MJO winds accurately captures the global ocean response, demonstrating that the observed ocean dynamical response to the MJO can be interpreted as a linear response to surface wind forcing. The model is then applied to study “primary” Madden-Julian events, which are not immediately preceded by any MJO activity nor by any apparent atmospheric triggers, but have been shown to coincide with the arrival of downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby waves. Case study simulations show how this oceanic equatorial Rossby wave activity is partly forced by reflection of an oceanic equatorial Kelvin wave triggered by a westerly wind burst 140 days previously, and partly directly forced by easterly wind stress anomalies around 40 days prior to the event. This suggests predictability for primary Madden-Julian events on times scales of up to five months, following the re-emergence of oceanic anomalies forced by winds almost half a year earlier

The causes of full ocean depth interannual variability in Drake Passage

In recent years a number of large scale modes of Southern Hemisphere climate variability have been observed, most notably the Southern Annular Mode (SAM, e.g. Thompson and Solomon, 2002), the Pacific South American modes (PSA, e.g. Mo and Peagle, 2001), the Antarctic Dipole (e.g. Martinson and Ianuzzi, 2003), the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (e.g. White and Peterson, 1996), and of course the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). All have pronounced effects over or in the Southern Ocean, and may be expected to account for a significant part of the interannual variability observed there. Most studies analyse these phenomena from a large-scale point of view, often by extracting modes from Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic fields using various mathematical techniques. In this study we have taken an alternative approach, and tried to understand the causes of the full ocean depth variability in Drake Passage observed in the WOCE SR1b repeat hydrographic sections (Cunningham et al. 2003)

R squared effect-size measures and overlap between direct and indirect effect in mediation analysis

In a recent article in this journal (Fairchild, MacKinnon, Taborga & Taylor, 2009), a method was described for computing the variance accounted for by the direct effect and the indirect effect in mediation analysis. However, application of this method leads to counterintuitive results, most notably that in some situations in which the direct effect is much stronger than the indirect effect, the latter appears to explain much more variance than the former. The explanation for this is that the Fairchild et al. method handles the strong interdependence of the direct and indirect effect in a way that assigns all overlap variance to the indirect effect. Two approaches for handling this overlap are discussed, but none of them is without disadvantages

How Well Do the Generic Multi-attribute Utility Instruments Incorporate Patient and Public Views Into Their Descriptive Systems?

Multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs) are increasingly being used to generate utility data, which can be used to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). These QALY data can then be incorporated into a cost-utility analysis as part of an economic evaluation, to inform health care resource allocation decisions. Many health care decision-making bodies around the world, such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, require the use of generic MAUIs. Recently, there has been a call for greater input of patients into the development of patient-reported outcome measures, and this is now actively encouraged. By incorporating the views of patients, greater validity of an instrument is expected and it is more likely that patients will be able to self-complete the instrument, which is the ideal when obtaining information about a patient's health-related quality of life. This paper examines the stages of MAUI development and the scope for patient and/or public involvement at each stage. The paper then reviews how much the main generic MAUIs have incorporated the views of patients/the public into the development of their descriptive systems at each of these stages, and the implications of this. The review finds that the majority of MAUIs had very little input from patients/the public. Instead, existing literature and/or the views of experts were used. If we wish to incorporate patient/public views into future development of MAUIs, qualitative methods are recommended

No straight lines – young women’s perceptions of their mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-ethnography

Background: Young mothers face mental health challenges during and after pregnancy including increased rates of depression compared to older mothers. While the prevention of teenage pregnancy in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom has been a focus for policy and research in recent decades, the need to understand young women’s own experiences has been highlighted. The aim of this meta-ethnography was to examine young women’s perceptions of their mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy to provide new understandings of those experiences. Methods: A systematic review and meta-ethnographic synthesis of qualitative research was conducted. Seven databases were systematically searched and forward and backward searching conducted. Papers were included if they were from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and explored mental health and wellbeing experiences of young mothers (age under 20 in pregnancy; under 25 at time of research) as a primary research question – or where evidence about mental health and wellbeing from participants was foregrounded. Nineteen papers were identified and the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist for qualitative research used to appraise the evidence. Following the seven-step process of meta-ethnography, key constructs were examined within each study and then translated into one another. Results: Seven translated themes were identified forming a new line of argument wherein mental health and wellbeing was analysed as relating to individual bodily experiences; tied into past and present relationships; underpinned by economic insecurity and entangled with feelings of societal surveillance. There were ‘no straight lines’ in young women’s experiences, which were more complex than dominant narratives around overcoming adversity suggest. Conclusions: The synthesis concludes that health and social care professionals need to reflect on the operation of power and stigma in young women’s lives and its impact on wellbeing. It adds to understanding of young women’s mental health and wellbeing during and after pregnancy as located in physical and structural factors rather than individual capacities alone

Obesity and pre-hypertension in family medicine: Implications for quality improvement

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background.</p> <p>Prevention of pre-hypertension is an important goal for primary care patients. Obesity is a risk factor for hypertension, but has not been addressed for pre-hypertension in primary care populations. The objective of this study was to assess the degree to which obesity independently is associated with risk for pre-hypertension in family medicine patients.</p> <p>Methods.</p> <p>This study was a retrospective analysis of information abstracted from medical records of 707 adult patients. Multivariable logistic regression was used to test the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and pre-hypertension, after adjustment for comorbidity and demographic characteristics. Pre-hypertension was defined as systolic pressure between 120 and 139 mm Hg or diastolic pressure between 80 and 89 mm Hg.</p> <p>Results.</p> <p>In our sample, 42.9% of patients were pre-hypertensive. Logistic regression analysis revealed that, in comparison to patients with normal body mass, patients with BMI > 35 had higher adjusted odds of being pre-hypertensive (OR = 4.5, CI 2.55–8.11, p < .01). BMI between 30 and 35 also was significant (OR = 2.7, CI 1.61–4.63, p < 0.01) as was overweight (OR = 1.8, CI 1.14–2.92, p = 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion.</p> <p>In our sample of family medicine patients, elevated BMI is a risk factor for pre-hypertension, especially BMI > 35. This relationship appears to be independent of age, gender, marital status and comorbidity. Weight loss intervention for obese patients, including patient education or referral to weight loss programs, might be effective for prevention of pre-hypertension and thus should be considered as a potential quality indicator.</p

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of a single annual professional intervention for the prevention of childhood dental caries in a remote rural Indigenous community

Background The aim of the study is to reduce the high prevalence of tooth decay in children in a remote, rural Indigenous community in Australia, by application of a single annual dental preventive intervention. The study seeks to (1) assess the effectiveness of an annual oral health preventive intervention in slowing the incidence of dental caries in children in this community, (2) identify the mediating role of known risk factors for dental caries and (3) assess the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the intervention. Methods/design The intervention is novel in that most dental preventive interventions require regular re-application, which is not possible in resource constrained communities. While tooth decay is preventable, self-care and healthy habits are lacking in these communities, placing more emphasis on health services to deliver an effective dental preventive intervention. Importantly, the study will assess cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness for broader implementation across similar communities in Australia and internationally. Discussion There is an urgent need to reduce the burden of dental decay in these communities, by implementing effective, cost-effective, feasible and sustainable dental prevention programs. Expected outcomes of this study include improved oral and general health of children within the community; an understanding of the costs associated with the intervention provided, and its comparison with the costs of allowing new lesions to develop, with associated treatment costs. Findings should be generalisable to similar communities around the world. The research is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), registration number ACTRN12615000693527; date of registration: 3rd July 2015