Epidemiology of influenza-like illness in the Amazon Basin of Peru, 2008-2009.

BackgroundData addressing the incidence and epidemiology of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) in tropical regions of the world is scarce, particularly for the neotropics of South America.MethodsWe conducted active, population-based surveillance for ILI across 45 city blocks within the Amazon Basin city of Iquitos, Peru. Demographic data and household characteristics were collected for all participants, and participating households were visited three times weekly to inquire about ILI (fever plus cough or sore throat) among household residents. Nasal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from participants with ILI and tested for influenza virus infection.ResultsBetween May 1, 2008 and July 8, 2009, we monitored 10,341 participants for ILI for a total of 11,569.5 person-years. We detected 459 ILI episodes, with 252 (54.9%) of the participants providing specimens. Age-adjusted incidence of ILI was estimated to be 46.7 episodes/1000 person-years. Influenza A and B viruses were detected in 25 (9.9%) and 62 (24.6%) specimens of ILI patients, respectively, for an estimated age-adjusted incidence rate of 16.5 symptomatic influenza virus infections/1000 person-years. Risk factors for ILI included age, household crowding, and use of wood as cooking fuel. For influenza virus infection specifically, age and use of wood as a cooking fuel were also identified as risk factors, but no effect of household crowding was observed.ConclusionsOur results represent the initial population-based description of the epidemiology of ILI in the Amazon region of Peru, which will be useful for developing region-specific strategies for reducing the burden of respiratory disease

Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru.

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally

The genetic structure of Aedes aegypti populations is driven by boat traffic in the Peruvian Amazon.

In the Americas, as in much of the rest of the world, the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti is found in close association with human habitations, often leading to high population densities of mosquitoes in urban settings. In the Peruvian Amazon, this vector has been expanding to rural communities over the last 10-15 years, but to date, the population genetic structure of Ae. aegypti in this region has not been characterized. To investigate the relationship between Ae. aegypti gene flow and human transportation networks, we characterized mosquito population structure using a panel of 8 microsatellite markers and linked results to various potential mechanisms for long-distance dispersal. Adult and immature Ae. aegypti (>20 individuals per site) were collected from Iquitos city and from six neighboring riverine communities, i.e., Nauta, Indiana, Mazan, Barrio Florida, Tamshiaco, and Aucayo. FST statistics indicate significant, but low to moderate differentiation for the majority of study site pairs. Population structure of Ae. aegypti is not correlated with the geographic distance between towns, suggesting that human transportation networks provide a reasonable explanation for the high levels of population mixing. Our results indicate that Ae. aegypti gene flow among sub-populations is greatest between locations with heavy boat traffic, such as Iquitos-Tamshiaco and Iquitos-Indiana-Mazan, and lowest between locations with little or no boat/road traffic between them such as Barrio Florida-Iquitos. Bayesian clustering analysis showed ancestral admixture among three genetic clusters; no single cluster was exclusive to any site. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that human transportation networks, particularly riverways, are responsible for the geographic spread of Ae. aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon. Our findings are applicable to other regions of the world characterized by networks of urban islands connected by fluvial transport routes

Usefulness of commercially available GPS data-loggers for tracking human movement and exposure to dengue virus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our understanding of the effects of human movement on dengue virus spread remains limited in part due to the lack of precise tools to monitor the time-dependent location of individuals. We determined the utility of a new, commercially available, GPS data-logger for long-term tracking of human movements in Iquitos, Peru. We conducted a series of evaluations focused on GPS device attributes key to reliable use and accuracy. GPS observations from two participants were later compared with semi-structured interview data to assess the usefulness of GPS technology to track individual mobility patterns.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Positional point and line accuracy were 4.4 and 10.3 m, respectively. GPS wearing mode increased spatial point error by 6.9 m. Units were worn on a neck-strap by a carpenter and a moto-taxi driver for 14-16 days. The application of a clustering algorithm (I-cluster) to the raw GPS positional data allowed the identification of locations visited by each participant together with the frequency and duration of each visit. The carpenter moved less and spent more time in more fixed locations than the moto-taxi driver, who visited more locations for a shorter period of time. GPS and participants' interviews concordantly identified 6 common locations, whereas GPS alone identified 4 locations and participants alone identified 10 locations. Most (80%) of the locations identified by participants alone were places reported as visited for less than 30 minutes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study demonstrates the feasibility of a novel, commercially available GPS data-logger for long-term tracking of humans and shows the potential of these units to quantify mobility patterns in relationship with dengue virus transmission risk in a tropical urban environment. Cost, battery life, size, programmability and ease of wear are unprecedented from previously tested units, proving the usefulness of GPS-dataloggers for linking movement of individuals and transmission risk of dengue virus and other infectious agents, particularly in resource-poor settings.</p

Calling in sick: Impacts of fever on intra-urban human mobility

© 2016 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure

Incomplete Protection against Dengue Virus Type 2 Re-infection in Peru

© 2016 Public Library of Science. All Rights Reserved. Background: Nearly half of the world’s population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010–2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region. Methodology/Principal Findings: We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010–2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0%–65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1–17.7). Conclusions/Significance: Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics

Comment on Bachmann et al. (2013): A nonrepresentative sample cannot describe the extent of cultural eutrophication of natural lakes in the United States

In their recent paper, Bachmann et al. (2013) evaluate the extent to which natural lakes in the contiguous United States have been affected by cultural eutrophication since Europe-an settlement, using paleolimnological data collected during the 2007 National Lakes Assessment (NLA; U.S. Environ-mental Protection Agency [USEPA] 2009). The NLA sites were selected using a statistically valid sampling design that allows for the overall ecological condition of the nation’s lakes to be accurately characterized (USEPA 2009). Given the current consensus among limnologists regarding the prevalence of culturally eutrophic lakes (Finlayson and D’Cruz 2005; Carpenter et al. 2011), the conclusion of Bachmann et al. that ‘‘in the United States of America, the extent that natural lakes have been changed by cultural eutrophication does not seem to be large’’ (Bachmann et al. 2013, p. 950) is surprising. The findings of Bachmann et al. supporting this statement are not based on the entire NLA sample of natural lakes but rather on a subset of them. We demonstrate below that not only is this subset not representative of the entire population of natural lakes in the United States, but that it is biased toward lakes in regions with less anthropogenic activity and substantially lower nutrient concentrations. Consequently, we argue that the conclusions drawn by Bachmann et al. (2013) at the national scale are based upon a statistically flawed analysis

Synthesis

Human activity in the last century has led to a substantial increase in nitrogen (N) emissions and deposition. This N deposition has reached a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations to the structure and function of many ecosystems across the United States. One approach for quantifying the level of pollution that would be harmful to ecosystems is the critical loads approach. The critical load is dei ned as the level of a pollutant below which no detrimental ecological effect occurs over the long term according to present knowledge. The objective of this project was to synthesize current research relating atmospheric N deposition to effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the United States and to identify empirical critical loads for atmospheric N deposition. The receptors that we evaluated included freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi and other soil microbes, lichens, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. The main responses reported fell into two categories: (1) biogeochemical, and (2) individual species, population, and community responses. This report synthesizes current research relating atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the United States and to identify empirical critical loads for atmospheric N deposition. The report evaluates the following receptors: freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi and other soil microbes, lichens, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. The main responses reported fell into two categories: (1) biogeochemical; and (2) individual species, population, and community responses. The range of critical loads for nutrient N reported for U.S. ecoregions, inland surface waters, and freshwater wetlands is 1 to 39 kg N ha-1 y-1. This range spans the range of N deposition observed over most of the country. The empirical critical loads for N tend to increase in the following sequence for different life forms: diatoms, lichens and bryophytes, mycorrhizal fungi, herbaceous plants and shrubs, trees