Uncertainty and Cooperation: Analytical Results and a Simulated Agent Society

Uncertainty is an important factor that influences social evolution in natural and artificial environments. Here we distinguish between three aspects of uncertainty. Environmental uncertainty is the variance of resources in the environment, perceived uncertainty is the variance of the resource distribution as perceived by the organism and effective uncertainty is the variance of resources effectively enjoyed by individuals. We show analytically that perceived uncertainty is larger than environmental uncertainty and that effective uncertainty is smaller than perceived uncertainty, when cooperation is present. We use an agent society simulation in a two dimensional world for the generation of simulation data as one realisation of the analytical results. Together with our earlier theoretical work, results here show that cooperation can buffer the detrimental effects of uncertainty on the organism. The proposed conceptualisation of uncertainty can help in understanding its effects on social evolution and in designing artificial social environments.Agent-Based Modelling, Cooperation, Social Interaction Simulation, Uncertainty

Is Sensitivity to Anticoagulant Rodenticides Affected by Repeated Exposure in Hawks?

A seminal question in wildlife toxicology is whether exposure to an environmental contaminant, in particular a secondgeneration anticoagulant rodenticide, can evoke subtle long lasting effects on body condition, physiological function and survival. Many reports indicate that non-target predators often carry residues of several rodenticides, which is indicative of multiple exposures. An often-cited study in laboratory rats demonstrated that exposure to the second-generation anticoagulant rodenticide brodifacoum prolongs blood clotting time for a few days, but weeks later when rats were re-exposed to the first-generation anticoagulant rodenticide warfarin, coagulopathy was more pronounced in brodifacoum-treated rats than naïve rats exposed to warfarin. To further investigate this phenomenon, American kestrels were fed environmentally realistic doses of chlorophacinone or brodifacoum for a week, and following a week-long recovery period, birds were then challenged with a low-level dietary dose of chlorophacinone. In the present study, neither hematocrit nor clotting time (prothrombin time, Russell’s viper venom time) were differentially affected in sequentially exposed kestrels compared to naïve birds fed low-level dietary dose of chlorophacinone. While the present findings do not reveal lasting effects of anticoagulant exposure on blood clotting ability, findings in laboratory rats and other species have demonstrated such effects on blood clotting, and even other molecular pathways associated with immune function and xenobiotic metabolism. Additional studies using an environmentally realistic route of exposure and dose are underway to further test this hypothesis

Development of Dietary-Based Toxicity Reference Values to Assess the Risk of Chlorophacinone to Non-Target Raptorial Birds

Regulatory changes in the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in parts of North America may result in expanded use of first-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (FGARs). Recent toxicological studies with captive raptors have demonstrated that these species are considerably more sensitive to the FGAR diphacinone than traditional avian wildlife test species (mallard, bobwhite). We have now examined the toxicity of the FGAR chlorophacinone (CPN) to American kestrels fed rat tissue mechanically amended with CPN, or rat tissue containing biologically-incorporated CPN, for 7 days. Nominal CPN concentrations in these diets were 0.15, 0.75, and 1.5 μg/g food wet weight, and actual CPN concentration in diets were analytically verified as being close to target values. Food intake was consistent among groups, body weight fluctuated by less than 6%, exposure and adverse effects were generally dose-dependent, and there were no dramatic differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diets. Using benchmark dose statistical methods, toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50% of the kestrels was estimated to be about 80 μg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for prothrombin time and 40 μg CPN/kg body weight-day for Russell’s viper venom time. Based upon carcass CPN residues reported in rodents from field baiting studies, empirical measures of food consumption in kestrels, and dietary-based toxicity reference values derived from the 7-day exposure scenario, some free-ranging raptors consuming CPN-exposed prey might exhibit coagulopathy and hemorrhage. These sublethal responses associated with exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of CPN could compromise survival of exposed birds

Role of polymorphisms in codons 143 and 160 of the O6-alkylguanine DNA alkyltransferase gene in lung cancer risk

O6-Alkylguanine DNA alkyltransferase (AGT) plays an important role in the repair of alkylating agent-induced DNA damage and protection from the carcinogenic effects of environmental agents. To examine the importance of the AGT codon 143 and codon 160 polymorphisms in risk for lung cancer and to assess the prevalence of these polymorphisms in different racial groups, we performed genotype analysis of lung cancer patients and matched controls. The prevalence of the AGT143Val allele in controls was 0.07 in Caucasians and 0.03 in African Americans. The AGT143Val allele was not detected in an unmatched Asian control cohort. The prevalence of the AGT160Arg variant allele was 0.01 in Caucasians, 0.02 in African Americans, and 0.03 in Asians. A marginally significant association was observed between the AGT codon 143 (isoleucine/valine) genotype and risk for lung cancer (odds ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval = 1.01– 4.7). The prevalence of the AGT160Arg variant allele was similar in lung cancer cases versus matched controls. These results suggest that the AGT codon 143 polymorphism may play an important role in risk for lung cancer

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases

Toxicity reference values for chlorophacinone and their application for assessing anticoagulant rodenticide risk to raptors

Despite widespread use and benefit, there are growing concerns regarding hazards of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides to non-target wildlife which may result in expanded use of first-generation compounds, including chlorophacinone (CPN). The toxicity of CPN over a 7-day exposure period was investigated in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) fed either rat tissue mechanically- amended with CPN, tissue from rats fed Rozol bait (biologically-incorporated CPN), or control diets (tissue from untreated rats or commercial bird of prey diet) ad libitum. Nominal CPN concentrations in the formulated diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and measured concentrations averaged 94 % of target values. Kestrel food consumption was similar among groups and body weight varied by less than 6 %. Overt signs of intoxication, liver CPN residues, and changes in prothrombin time (PT), Russell’s viper venom time (RVVT) and hematocrit, were generally dose-dependent. Histological evidence of hemorrhage was present at all CPN dose levels, and most frequently observed in pectoral muscle and heart. There were no apparent differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diet formulations. Dietary-based toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50 % of the kestrels were 79.2 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for PT and 39.1 µg/kg body weight-day for RVVT. Based upon daily food consumption of kestrels and previously reported CPN concentrations found in small mammals following field baiting trials, these toxicity reference values might be exceeded by free-ranging raptors consuming such exposed prey. Tissue-based toxicity reference values for coagulopathy in 50 % of exposed birds were 0.107 µg CPN/g liver wet weight for PT and 0.076 µg/g liver for RVVT, and are below the range of residue levels reported in raptor mortality incidents attributed to CPN exposure. Sublethal responses associated with exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of CPN could compromise survival of free-ranging raptors, and should be considered in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs

Platform dependence of inference on gene-wise and gene-set involvement in human lung development

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With the recent development of microarray technologies, the comparability of gene expression data obtained from different platforms poses an important problem. We evaluated two widely used platforms, Affymetrix U133 Plus 2.0 and the Illumina HumanRef-8 v2 Expression Bead Chips, for comparability in a biological system in which changes may be subtle, namely fetal lung tissue as a function of gestational age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We performed the comparison via sequence-based probe matching between the two platforms. "Significance grouping" was defined as a measure of comparability. Using both expression correlation and significance grouping as measures of comparability, we demonstrated that despite overall cross-platform differences at the single gene level, increased correlation between the two platforms was found in genes with higher expression level, higher probe overlap, and lower p-value. We also demonstrated that biological function as determined via KEGG pathways or GO categories is more consistent across platforms than single gene analysis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that while the comparability of the platforms at the single gene level may be increased by increasing sample size, they are highly comparable ontologically even for subtle differences in a relatively small sample size. Biologically relevant inference should therefore be reproducible across laboratories using different platforms.</p

Survival Improvements in Adolescents and Young Adults after Myeloablative Allogeneic Transplantation for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

AbstractAdolescents and young adults (AYAs, ages 15 to 40 years) with cancer have not experienced survival improvements to the same extent as younger and older patients. We compared changes in survival after myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) among children (n = 981), AYAs (n = 1218), and older adults (n = 469) who underwent transplantation over 3 time periods: 1990 to 1995, 1996 to 2001, and 2002 to 2007. Five-year survival varied inversely with age group. Survival improved over time in AYAs and paralleled that seen in children; however, overall survival did not change over time for older adults. Survival improvements were primarily related to lower rates of early treatment-related mortality in the most recent era. For all cohorts, relapse rates did not change over time. A subset of 222 AYAs between the ages of 15 and 25 at 46 pediatric or 49 adult centers were also analyzed to describe differences by center type. In this subgroup, there were differences in transplantation practices among pediatric and adult centers, although HCT outcomes did not differ by center type. Survival for AYAs undergoing myeloablative allogeneic HCT for ALL improved at a similar rate as survival for children

Toxicity reference values for chlorophacinone and their application for assessing anticoagulant rodenticide risk to raptors

Despite widespread use and benefit, there are growing concerns regarding hazards of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides to non-target wildlife which may result in expanded use of first-generation compounds, including chlorophacinone (CPN). The toxicity of CPN over a 7-day exposure period was investigated in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) fed either rat tissue mechanically- amended with CPN, tissue from rats fed Rozol bait (biologically-incorporated CPN), or control diets (tissue from untreated rats or commercial bird of prey diet) ad libitum. Nominal CPN concentrations in the formulated diets were 0.15, 0.75 and 1.5 µg/g food wet weight, and measured concentrations averaged 94 % of target values. Kestrel food consumption was similar among groups and body weight varied by less than 6 %. Overt signs of intoxication, liver CPN residues, and changes in prothrombin time (PT), Russell’s viper venom time (RVVT) and hematocrit, were generally dose-dependent. Histological evidence of hemorrhage was present at all CPN dose levels, and most frequently observed in pectoral muscle and heart. There were no apparent differences in toxicity between mechanically-amended and biologically-incorporated CPN diet formulations. Dietary-based toxicity reference values at which clotting times were prolonged in 50 % of the kestrels were 79.2 µg CPN consumed/kg body weight-day for PT and 39.1 µg/kg body weight-day for RVVT. Based upon daily food consumption of kestrels and previously reported CPN concentrations found in small mammals following field baiting trials, these toxicity reference values might be exceeded by free-ranging raptors consuming such exposed prey. Tissue-based toxicity reference values for coagulopathy in 50 % of exposed birds were 0.107 µg CPN/g liver wet weight for PT and 0.076 µg/g liver for RVVT, and are below the range of residue levels reported in raptor mortality incidents attributed to CPN exposure. Sublethal responses associated with exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of CPN could compromise survival of free-ranging raptors, and should be considered in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs