Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues

Public attitudes that are in opposition to scientific consensus can be disastrous and include rejection of vaccines and opposition to climate change mitigation policies. Five studies examine the interrelationships between opposition to expert consensus on controversial scientific issues, how much people actually know about these issues, and how much they think they know. Across seven critical issues that enjoy substantial scientific consensus, as well as attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines and mitigation measures like mask wearing and social distancing, results indicate that those with the highest levels of opposition have the lowest levels of objective knowledge but the highest levels of subjective knowledge. Implications for scientists, policymakers, and science communicators are discussed

Raising argument strength using negative evidence: A constraint on models of induction

Both intuitively, and according to similarity-based theories of induction, relevant evidence raises argument strength when it is positive and lowers it when it is negative. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that argument strength can actually increase when negative evidence is introduced. Two kinds of argument were compared through forced choice or sequential evaluation: single positive arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”) and double mixed arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain, X’s music DOES NOT; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”). Negative evidence in the second premise lowered credence when it applied to an item X from the same subcategory (e.g., Haydn) and raised it when it applied to a different subcategory (e.g., AC/DC). The results constitute a new constraint on models of induction

Evaluating everyday explanations

People frequently rely on explanations provided by others to understand complex phenomena. A fair amount of attention has been devoted to the study of scientific explanation, and less on understanding how people evaluate naturalistic, everyday explanations. Using a corpus of diverse explanations from Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" and other online sources, we assessed how well a variety of explanatory criteria predict judgments of explanation quality. We find that while some criteria previously identified as explanatory virtues do predict explanation quality in naturalistic settings, other criteria, such as simplicity, do not. Notably, we find that people have a preference for complex explanations that invoke more causal mechanisms to explain an effect. We propose that this preference for complexity is driven by a desire to identify enough causes to make the effect seem inevitable

Interactive effects of pesticide exposure and habitat structure on behavior and predation of a marine larval fish

Coastal development has generated multiple stressors in marine and estuarine ecosystems, including habitat degradation and pollutant exposure, but the effects of these stressors on the ecology of fishes remain poorly understood. We studied the separate and combined effects of an acute 4 h sublethal exposure of the pyrethroid pesticide esfenvalerate and structural habitat complexity on behavior and predation risk of larval topsmelt (Atherinops affinis). Larvae were exposed to four nominal esfenvalerate concentrations (control, 0.12, 0.59, 1.18 μg/L), before placement into 12 L mesocosms with a three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) predator. Five treatments of artificial eelgrass included a (1) uniform and (2) patchy distribution of eelgrass at a low density (500 shoots per m(2)), a (3) uniform and (4) patchy distribution of eelgrass at a high density (1,000 shoots per m(2)), and (5) the absence of eelgrass. The capture success of predators and aggregative behavior of prey were observed in each mesocosm for 10 min of each trial, and mortality of prey was recorded after 60 min. Exposure to esfenvalerate increased the proportion of larvae with swimming abnormalities. Surprisingly, prey mortality did not increase linearly with pesticide exposure but increased with habitat structure (density of eelgrass), which may have been a consequence of compensating predator behavior. The degree of prey aggregation decreased with both habitat structure and pesticide exposure, suggesting that anti-predator behaviors by prey may have been hampered by the interactive effects of both of these factors