State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Seroprevalence, predictors and estimated incidence of maternal and neonatal Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 infection in semi-urban women in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 (HSV-2) has public health importance as a leading cause of genital ulcers, a co-factor in HIV-1 acquisition and transmission and as a cause of neonatal herpes infections. Little is known of its epidemiology and burden in Coastal Kenya. Methods: We screened plasma samples for HSV-2 infection from 826 women aged 15-34 years who participated in an HIV-1 survey in Kilifi in 2004. The sample comprised 563 women selected randomly from a demographic surveillance system (DSS) and 263 women who presented for voluntary counseling and testing (VCT). Predictors for HSV-2 seropositivity were determined using multivariate logistic regression. The incidence of HSV-2 infection and risk of neonatal herpes were estimated by a simple catalytic model fitted to age-seroprevalence data. Results: HSV-2 prevalence was 32% in the DSS recruits vs. 44% in the VCT recruits (P < 0.001), while, HIV-1 prevalence was 8% in the DSS recruits vs. 12% in the VCT recruits (P = 0.12). Independent risk factors for HSV-2 infection in all women were: older age (30-34 years; odds ratio (OR) 10.5, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.2 - 21.0), recruitment from VCT (OR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1 - 2.1), history of genital ulcers (OR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2 - 2.3) and HIV infection (OR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.6-4.6). Education beyond primary (OR 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5 - 0.9) was inversely associated with HSV-2 infection. In the DSS sample, HSV-2 incidence was estimated at 4 cases (95% CI: 3.3 - 4.4) per 100 women per year, 17 cases (95% CI: 16-18) per 1,000 pregnancies per year and 33 neonatal cases (95% CI: 31-36) per 100,000 births per year. Conclusions: HSV-2 transmission is rapid following the onset of sexual activity and likely to result in a significant burden of genital ulcer disease. Nevertheless, the burden of neonatal HSV-2 can be predicted to be low. Educating young women about HSV-2 infection may help in reducing its burden in this semi-urban population

Impact of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine resistance on effectiveness of intermittent preventive therapy for malaria in pregnancy at clearing infections and preventing low birth weight

Background: Owing to increasing sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) resistance in sub-Saharan Africa, monitoring the effectiveness of intermittent preventive therapy in pregnancy (IPTp) with SP is crucial. Methods: Between 2009 and 2013, both the efficacy of IPTp-SP at clearing existing peripheral malaria infections and the effectiveness of IPTp-SP at reducing low birth weight (LBW) were assessed among human immunodeficiency virus–uninfected participants in 8 sites in 6 countries. Sites were classified as high, medium, or low resistance after measuring parasite mutations conferring SP resistance. An individual-level prospective pooled analysis was conducted. Results: Among 1222 parasitemic pregnant women, overall polymerase chain reaction–uncorrected and –corrected failure rates by day 42 were 21.3% and 10.0%, respectively (39.7% and 21.1% in high-resistance areas; 4.9% and 1.1% in low-resistance areas). Median time to recurrence decreased with increasing prevalence of Pfdhps-K540E. Among 6099 women at delivery, IPTp-SP was associated with a 22% reduction in the risk of LBW (prevalence ratio [PR], 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], .69–.88; P < .001). This association was not modified by insecticide-treated net use or gravidity, and remained significant in areas with high SP resistance (PR, 0.81; 95% CI, .67–.97; P = .02). Conclusions: The efficacy of SP to clear peripheral parasites and prevent new infections during pregnancy is compromised in areas with >90% prevalence of Pfdhps-K540E. Nevertheless, in these high-resistance areas, IPTp-SP use remains associated with increases in birth weight and maternal hemoglobin. The effectiveness of IPTp in eastern and southern Africa is threatened by further increases in SP resistance and reinforces the need to evaluate alternative drugs and strategies for the control of malaria in pregnancy

Value of Information and Value of Implementation: Application of an Analytic Framework to Inform Resource Allocation Decisions in Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer

Objective: In a budget-constrained health-care system, decisions about investing in strategies to promote implementation have to be made alongside decisions about health-care provision and research funding. Using a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach, an analytic framework has been developed to inform these separate but related decisions, establishing the expected value of both perfect information (EVPI) and perfect implementation (EVPIM). We applied this framework to inform decision-making about resource allocation to metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (mHRPC) in the UK. Methods: Based on available evidence on the cost-effectiveness of all plausible treatments for mHRPC, we determined which treatment option(s) were cost-effective and explored the uncertainty surrounding this decision. Given the decision uncertainty and the variation in care provided by health-care professionals, we then determined the EVPI and EVPIM. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses to explore the influence of alternative assumptions regarding various decision parameters on the efficiency of resource allocation. Results: Depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold (lambda), we identified mitoxantrone plus prednisone/prednisolone and docetaxel plus prednisone/prednisolone (3 weekly) as the optimal treatments for mHRPC. Given current clinical practice, there appears to be considerable scope for improving the efficiency of health-care provision: the EVPI (estimated to be over pound13 million) indicates that acquiring further information could be cost-effective; and the EVPIM (estimated to be over pound4 million) suggests that investing in strategies to implement the treatments regimens being identified as optimal is potentially worthwhile. Through sensitivity analyses, we found that the EVPI and EVPIM are mainly driven by lambda, the number of treatment options being considered, the current level of implementation, and the size of the eligible patient population. Conclusion: The application demonstrates that the framework provides a simple and useful analytic tool for decision-makers to address resource allocation problems between health-care provision, further research, and implementation effort