Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report

Empirical Equations of Equilibrium within Tidal Inlets

This work develops a general approach to equilibrium assessment to determine the stability of a tidal inlet. This is achieved by establishing a universal empirical equation with the inclusion of all affecting parameters. Data were collected from a number of tidal inlets from a range of published material, and relationships between the parameters considered to be of importance in inlet equilibrium dynamics were derived through linear regressioii. The most significant of these were analysed through multiple regression to yield a general empirical equation with the inclusion of the important factors. The results show the intimate Imkage between these parameters. Relationships describing these are statistically significant to 99.5%. The smgle most important parameter in cross-sectional area adjustment and sand volume variation of the outer delta was shovra to be the mean maxunum velocity. The tidal prism, cross-sectional area, inlet discharge and the longshore drift were found to adjust to maintain a constant mean maximum velocity of ~1.02ms necessary to impart a critical bottom stress on the inlet bed. The inlet follows a tendency to increase its stability with increasing cross-sectional area. When this is greater than ~1914m2, the inlet attains natural equilibrium and "relatively good conditions" (Bruun, 1978)

Sea surface height variability in the North East Atlantic from satellite altimetry

Data from 21 years of satellite altimeter measurements are used to identify and understand the major contributing components of sea surface height variability (SSV) on monthly time-scales in the North East Atlantic. A number of SSV drivers is considered, which are categorised into two groups; local (wind and sea surface temperature) and remote (sea level pressure and the North Atlantic oscillation index). A multiple linear regression model is constructed to model the SSV for a specific target area in the North Sea basin. Cross-correlations between candidate regressors potentially lead to ambiguity in the interpretation of the results. We therefore use an objective hierarchical selection method based on variance inflation factors to select the optimal number of regressors for the target area and accept these into the regression model if they can be associated to SSV through a direct underlying physical forcing mechanism. Results show that a region of high SSV exists off the west coast of Denmark and that it can be represented well with a regression model that uses local wind, sea surface temperature and sea level pressure as primary regressors. The regression model developed here helps to understand sea level change in the North East Atlantic. The methodology is generalised and easily applied to other regions.Environmental Fluid Mechanic