The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions

This paper develops a financial stress index for the United States, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI), which provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that could indicate it. The index is based on daily public-market data collected from four sectors of the fi nancial markets—the credit, foreign exchange, equity, and interbank markets. A dynamic weighting method is employed to capture changes in the relative importance of these four sectors as they occur. In addition, the design of the index allows the origin of the stress to be identified. We compare the CFSI to alternative indexes, using a detailed benchmarking methodology, and show how the CFSI can be applied to systemic stress monitoring and early warning system design. To that end, we investigate alternative stress-signaling thresholds and frequency regimes and then establish optimal frequencies for filtering out market noise and idiosyncratic episodes. Finally, we quantify a powerful CFSI-based rating system that assigns a probability of systemic stress to ranges of CFSI outcomes.Systemic risk ; Risk assessment

SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk, incorporating the structural characteristics of the fi nancial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain fi nancial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifi cations that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing, scenario analysis, and policy.Systemic risk ; Liquidity (Economics)

A novel school-based intervention to improve nutrition knowledge in children: cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Improving nutrition knowledge among children may help them to make healthier food choices. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness and acceptability of a novel educational intervention to increase nutrition knowledge among primary school children. METHODS: We developed a card game 'Top Grub' and a 'healthy eating' curriculum for use in primary schools. Thirty-eight state primary schools comprising 2519 children in years 5 and 6 (aged 9-11 years) were recruited in a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial. The main outcome measures were change in nutrition knowledge scores, attitudes to healthy eating and acceptability of the intervention by children and teachers. RESULTS: Twelve intervention and 13 control schools (comprising 1133 children) completed the trial. The main reason for non-completion was time pressure of the school curriculum. Mean total nutrition knowledge score increased by 1.1 in intervention (baseline to follow-up: 28.3 to 29.2) and 0.3 in control schools (27.3 to 27.6). Total nutrition knowledge score at follow-up, adjusted for baseline score, deprivation, and school size, was higher in intervention than in control schools (mean difference = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.05 to 2.16; p = 0.042). At follow-up, more children in the intervention schools said they 'are currently eating a healthy diet' (39.6%) or 'would try to eat a healthy diet' (35.7%) than in control schools (34.4% and 31.7% respectively; chi-square test p < 0.001). Most children (75.5%) enjoyed playing the game and teachers considered it a useful resource. CONCLUSIONS: The 'Top Grub' card game facilitated the enjoyable delivery of nutrition education in a sample of UK primary school age children. Further studies should determine whether improvements in nutrition knowledge are sustained and lead to changes in dietary behaviour.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Variability in the Heritability of Body Mass Index: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression

Evidence for a major role of genetic factors in the determination of body mass index (BMI) comes from studies of related individuals. Despite consistent evidence for a heritable component of BMI, estimates of BMI heritability vary widely between studies and the reasons for this remain unclear. While some variation is natural due to differences between populations and settings, study design factors may also explain some of the heterogeneity. We performed a systematic review that identified 88 independent estimates of BMI heritability from twin studies (total 140,525 twins) and 27 estimates from family studies (42,968 family members). BMI heritability estimates from twin studies ranged from 0.47 to 0.90 (5th/50th/95th centiles: 0.58/0.75/0.87) and were generally higher than those from family studies (range: 0.24–0.81; 5th/50th/95th centiles: 0.25/0.46/0.68). Meta-regression of the results from twin studies showed that BMI heritability estimates were 0.07 (P = 0.001) higher in children than in adults; estimates increased with mean age among childhood studies (+0.012/year, P = 0.002), but decreased with mean age in adult studies (−0.002/year, P = 0.002). Heritability estimates derived from AE twin models (which assume no contribution of shared environment) were 0.12 higher than those from ACE models (P < 0.001), whilst lower estimates were associated with self reported versus DNA-based determination of zygosity (−0.04, P = 0.02), and with self reported versus measured BMI (−0.05, P = 0.03). Although the observed differences in heritability according to aspects of study design are relatively small, together, the above factors explained 47% of the heterogeneity in estimates of BMI heritability from twin studies. In summary, while some variation in BMI heritability is expected due to population-level differences, study design factors explained nearly half the heterogeneity reported in twin studies. The genetic contribution to BMI appears to vary with age and may have a greater influence during childhood than adult life

Altered Patterns of Fungal Keratitis at a London Ophthalmic Referral Hospital: An Eight-Year Retrospective Observational Study.

PURPOSE: In previous studies of fungal keratitis (FK) from temperate countries, yeasts were the predominant isolates, with ocular surface disease (OSD) being the leading risk factor. Since the 2005-2006 outbreak of contact lens (CL)-associated Fusarium keratitis, there may have been a rise in CL-associated filamentary FK in the United Kingdom. This retrospective case series investigated the patterns of FK from 2007 to 2014. We compared these to 1994-2006 data from the same hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. METHODS: All cases of FK presenting to Moorfields Eye Hospital between 2007 and 2014 were identified. The definition of FK was either a fungal organism isolated by culture or fungal structures identified by light microscopy (LM) of scrape material, histopathology, or in vivo corneal confocal microscopy (IVCM). Main outcome measure was cases of FK per year. RESULTS: A total of 112 patients had confirmed FK. Median age was 47.2 years. Between 2007 and 2014, there was an increase in annual numbers of FK (Poisson regression, P = .0001). FK was confirmed using various modalities: 79 (70.5%) by positive culture, 16 (14.3%) by LM, and 61 (54.5%) by IVCM. Seventy-eight patients (69.6%) were diagnosed with filamentary fungus alone, 28 (25%) with yeast alone, and 6 (5.4%) with mixed filamentary and yeast infections. This represents an increase in the proportion of filamentary fungal infections from the pre-2007 data. Filamentary fungal and yeast infections were associated with CL use and OSD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The number of FK cases has increased. This increase is due to CL-associated filamentary FK. Clinicians should be aware of these changes, which warrant epidemiologic investigations to identify modifiable risk factors

Using the Rosat Catalogue to find Counterparts for Unidentified Objects in the 1st Fermi/LAT Catalogue

There are a total of 1451 gamma-ray emitting objects in the Fermi Large Area Telescope First Source Catalogue. The point source location accuracy of typically a few arcminutes has allowed the counterparts for many of these sources to be found at other wavelengths, but even so there are 630 which are described as having no plausible counterpart at 80% confidence. In order to help identify the unknown objects, we have cross-correlated the positions of these sources with the Rosat All Sky Survey Bright Source Catalogue. In this way, for Fermi sources which have a possible counterpart in soft X-rays, we can use the, much smaller, Rosat error box to search for identifications. We find a strong correlation between the two samples and calculate that there are about 60 sources with a Rosat counterpart. Using the Rosat error boxes we provide tentative associations for half of them, demonstrate that the majority of these are either blazars or blazar candidates and give evidence that most belong to the BL Lac class. Given that they are X-ray selected and most are high synchrotron peaked objects, which indicates the presence of high energy electrons, these sources are also good candidates for TeV emission, and therefore good probes of the extragalactic background light.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure; Accepted for publication in MNRA

Nano silica dispersion in epoxy: the investigation of heat, milling speed and duration effect

Nano composites are a promising development but the challenge of homogenous and discrete dispersion of the nano fillers are barriers that must be overcome before they can be effectively implemented. Although the common dispersion methods such as particle surface modification, comprehensive milling metrologies and the usage of solvents bear results, these are time consuming and not cost effective. In this paper, we explore the efficiency of coupling the usage of ball-media and heat on the dispersion of nano silica in epoxy. No solvents are involved. The effects of milling speed and duration are also studied albeit under a fixed ball media : silica-epoxy volume ratio of 3:5. The experiment set-up involves a simple 3-blade mixer, round bottom flask and 60 ? m zirconia ball. At nano silica loading of 10 wt % the nano silica clusters are systematically reduced from 1.5 - 2 ? m to 100 - 200 nm with the usage of ball media and application of heat. At the optimum milling speed and duration of 500 rpm for 5 hours, the aggregate sizes were further reduced to 30 - 70 nm, which is almost a discrete dispersion

Randomised controlled trial of a theory-based behavioural intervention to reduce formula milk intake

Objective: To assess the efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to prevent rapidweight gain in formula-milk fed infants.  Design: In this single (assessor) blind, randomised controlled trial, 669 healthy full-terminfants receiving formula-milk within 14 weeks of birth were individually-randomised tointervention (n=340) or attention-matched control (n=329) groups. The intervention aimed toreduce formula-milk intakes, and promote responsive feeding and growth monitoring toprevent rapid weight gain (>+ 0.67 standard deviation scores [SDS]). It was delivered tomothers by trained facilitators up to infant age 6 months through 3 face-to-face contacts, 2telephone contacts, and written materials.  Results: Retention was 93% (622) at 6 months, 88% (586) at 12 months, and 94% attended >4/5 sessions. The intervention strengthened maternal attitudes to following infant feedingrecommendations, reduced reported milk intakes at ages 3 (-14%; intervention vs controlinfants), 4 (-12%), 5 (-9%), and 6 (-7%) months, slowed initial infant weight gain frombaseline to 6 months (mean change 0.32 vs 0.42 SDS, baseline-adjusted difference(intervention vs control) -0.08 [95% CI; -0.17, -0.004] SDS), but had no effect on the primaryoutcome of weight gain to 12 months (baseline-adjusted difference -0.04 [-0.17, 0.10] SDS).By 12 months, 40.3% of infants in the intervention group and 45.9% in the control groupshowed rapid weight gain (OR: 0.84 [95% CI; 0.59, 1.17]).  Conclusions: Despite reducing milk intakes and initial weight gain, the intervention did notalter the high prevalence of rapid weight gain to age 12 months suggesting the need forsustained intervention