Futures Basis for Cotton: Impact of Globalization and Structural Change

A model of commodity futures contract basis was developed based on Working’s theory of the price of storage. An error-correction model was estimated for the basis for the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) #2 cotton contract maturing in December during 2000-08. The model was also extended to incorporate the impact of changes in market activity that evolved as financial markets and commodity price behavior underwent significant changes after 2005. The model captured the inversion of basis following the collapse of China’s crop in 2003, but the shock realized during 2008 may have been in part driven by one-time events not included in the model. Estimates from the error-correction model suggest an extended period for the return of basis to equilibrium, spanning from about 1 ½ to 2 months.Basis, futures markets, cotton, error-correction model, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing,

PERSPECTIVES ON COTTON GLOBAL TRADE REFORMS

World cotton prices fell to nearly unprecedented levels during the 2001/02 marketing year, causing distress to cotton producers and exporters worldwide. In a number of developing countries highly dependent on cotton for export earnings or where cotton is the primary cash crop, this distress was particularly acute. Global trade barriers to cotton are widespread, leading to some concern about the relationship between these trade barriers and global welfare. In particular, with the Doha Development Agenda's negotiations underway, discussion about the impact of trade barriers on the cotton sectors of developing countries has become more intense. A static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model finds that removing cotton tariffs and other trade barriers to cotton by all countries increases global welfare but only slightly. Global welfare improves with liberalization, and the welfare of developing countries in aggregate also improves. However, while some developing countries demonstrably benefit, not all developing countries see welfare gains. In addition to welfare, removing all global cotton trade barriers increases world trade in cotton.International Relations/Trade,

Two Upper Cretaceous Flysch Sequences in the Caribbean Mountains of Venezuela and Their Relationship to Caribbean Tectonics

The Caribbean Mountains of Venezuela reach from the Venezuelan Andes to the Northern Ranges of Trinidad. Upper Cretaceous and Paleocene flysch units deposited in a marine euxinic basin are crucial in unraveling the evolution of the mountains. Two formations in the Acarigua region (near the termination in the Venezuelan Andes), the Rio Guache and Nuezalito formations, are the most complete sections of these flysch sequences. A sedimentary petrologic study was undertaken to determine the source areas for these formations, to put age brackets on the timing of uplift and rotation of portions of the Caribbean Mountains. The mountains are divided into five tectonic divisions: The Cordillera de la Costa Belt, the Tinaco Belt, the Paracotos Belt, the Villa de Cura Belt and the Flysch Basins. The remnants of an island arc system connected with the evolution of the mountains lies off the coastline. Plutonic clasts from the Nuezalito formation indicate that deposition occurred in a basin bounded on the north by the Tinaco and Villa de Cura belts, a Tinaco Belt correlative which now forms the Guajira Peninsula and possibly the island arc system. The southern margin of the basin was formed by the continental platform. Uplift, plutonism and metamorphism of several belts had already occurred by the time of deposition of the Nuezalito formation. The Rio Guache formation was deposited under similar conditions. More abundant metamorphic clasts suggest that uplift of the Cordillera de la Costa Belt occurred after the Nuezalito and before the Rio Guache formations were deposited. Analysis of graywackes from the two formations shows differences in composition attributable to depositional factors, but no clear variation in maturity which might indicate whether the Rio Guache formation was derived in part from recycled older sediments such as the Nuezalito formation. Comparison of monocrystalline to polycrystalline quartz ratios in the two formations shows the Rio Guache formation to be more mature, but this may have little statistical validity. Recent theories for evolution of the Caribbean Mountains speculate that the island arc, rotating to the south as a result of eastward movement of the Caribbean plate, collided with the continental craton, causing orogenesis to occur. Paleomagnetic data suggests that the Tinaco and Villa de Cura as well as the Guajira Peninsula also rotated. The Nuezalito basin rotated with these belts; consequently the timing of rotation cannot be fixed by the provenance of clasts in the Nuezalito formation. Changes in the style of orogenesis in the Caribbean Mountains are reflected in the clast types present in the Rio Guache and Nuezalito formations. A theory proposed by Crook (1974) states that graywackes reflect three different types of geotectonic terrains. The data collected from graywacke and pebble clast analysis indicates that this model is overly simplistic, and that perhaps the model should be replaced by more exact theories

USDA PERSPECTIVE ON THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON

Crop Production/Industries,

Project sanitarium:playing tuberculosis to its end game

Interdisciplinary and collaborative projects between industry and academia provide exceptional opportunities for learning. Project Sanitarium is a serious game for Windows PC and Tablet which aims to embed learning about tuberculosis (TB) through the player taking on the role of a doctor and solving cases across the globe. The project developed as a collaboration between staff and undergraduate students at the School of Arts, Media and Computer Games at Abertay University working with academics and researchers from the Infection Group at the University of St Andrews. The project also engaged industry partners Microsoft and DeltaDNA. The project aimed to educate students through a workplace simulation pedagogical model, encourage public engagement at events and through news coverage and lastly to prototype whether games could be used to simulate a virtual clinical trial. The project was embedded in the Abertay undergraduate programme where students are presented with real world problems to solve through design and technology. The result was a serious game prototype that utilized game design techniques and technology to demystify and educate players about the diagnosis and treatment of one of the world’s oldest and deadliest diseases, TB. Project Sanitarium aims to not only educate the player, but allows the player to become a part of a simulated drug trial that could potentially help create new treatments in the fight against TB. The game incorporates a mathematical model that is based on data from real-world drug trials. The interdisciplinary pedagogical model provides undergraduates with workplace simulation, wider industry collaboration and access to academic expertise to solve challenging and complex problems

USDA PERSPECTIVE ON THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON

Crop Production/Industries,

The United States and World Cotton Outlook

Crop Production/Industries,

The United States and World Cotton Outlook

Crop Production/Industries,

Saving and demographics: some international comparisons

Saving and investment ; Consumer behavior

Margaret Thatcher's economic experiment: are there lessons for the Reagan Administration?

Fiscal policy