A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios

Tuberculosis from Mycobacterium bovis in Binational Communities, United States

The incidence in San Diego is increasing and is concentrated mostly in persons of Mexican origin

Effects of temperature and salinity on the growth of Alexandrium (Dinophyceae) isolates from the Salish Sea

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Phycology 52 (2016): 230–238, doi:10.1111/jpy.12386.Toxin-producing blooms of dinoflagellates in the genus Alexandrium have plagued the inhabitants of the Salish Sea for centuries. Yet the environmental conditions that promote accelerated growth of this organism, a producer of paralytic shellfish toxins, is lacking. This study quantitatively determined the growth response of two Alexandrium isolates to a range of temperatures and salinities, factors that will strongly respond to future climate change scenarios. An empirical equation, derived from observed growth rates describing the temperature and salinity dependence of growth, was used to hindcast bloom risk. Hindcasting was achieved by comparing predicted growth rates, calculated from in situ temperature and salinity data from Quartermaster Harbor, with corresponding Alexandrium cell counts and shellfish toxin data. The greatest bloom risk, defined at μ >0.25 d−1, generally occurred from April through November annually; however, growth rates rarely fell below 0.10 d−1. Except for a few occasions, Alexandrium cells were only observed during the periods of highest bloom risk and paralytic shellfish toxins above the regulatory limit always fell within the periods of predicted bloom occurrence. While acknowledging that Alexandrium growth rates are affected by other abiotic and biotic factors, such as grazing pressure and nutrient availability, the use of this empirical growth function to predict higher risk time frames for blooms and toxic shellfish within the Salish Sea provides the groundwork for a more comprehensive biological model of Alexandrium bloom dynamics in the region and will enhance our ability to forecast blooms in the Salish Sea under future climate change scenarios.NOAA Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Bloom (ECOHAB) Program; Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health; National Science Foundation Grant Number: OCE-1314642; National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Grant Number: 1-P01-ES021923-0

Genome-Wide Scan Identifies Loci Associated with Classical BSE Occurrence

Classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is an acquired prion disease that is invariably fatal in cattle and has been implicated as a significant human health risk. Sequence variations in the coding region of the prion gene (PRNP) have been associated with acquired transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) susceptibility in mammals; however, this is not the case in cattle. It has been hypothesized that genes, in addition to the prion gene, contribute to genetic susceptibility of acquired TSEs. Accordingly, genetic studies of classical BSE in cattle identified loci other than PRNP that are associated with disease incidence. The objective of this study was to utilize a genome-wide association study to test for genetic loci associated with classical BSE. The samples include 143 BSE affected (case) and 173 unaffected half sib (control) animals collected in the mid 1990s in Southern England. The data analysis identifies loci on two different chromosomes associated with BSE disease occurrence. Most notable is a single nucleotide polymorphism on chromosome 1 at 29.15 Mb that is associated with BSE disease (p = 3.09E-05). Additionally, a locus on chromosome 14, within a cluster of SNPs showed a trend toward significance (p = 5.24E-05). It is worth noting that in a human vCJD study markers on human chromosome 8, a region with shared synteny to the region identified on cattle chromosome 14, were associated with disease. Further, our candidate genes appear to have plausible biological relevance with the known etiology of TSE disease. One of the candidate genes is hypothetical gene LOC521010, similar to FK506 binding protein 2 located on chromosome 1 at 29.32 Mb. This gene encodes a protein that is a member of the immunophilin protein family and is involved in basic cellular processes including protein folding. The chromosomal regions identified in this study and candidate genes within these regions merit further investigation

Reanalysis of continuous shellfish monitoring data in pursuit of temporal and spatial patterns of paralytic shellfish toxins in the Puget Sound/Salish Sea

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are of growing concern on the West Coast of North America. The dinoflagellate Alexandrium catanella is known to produce toxins that have the potential to concentrate in shellfish and, when consumed by humans or marine mammals, may result in Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) leading to illness or death. In Puget Sound, the Washington State Department of Health (WDOH) collects and tests shellfish samples to protect the health and safety of shellfish consumers as well as the livelihood of the extensive local shellfish industry. Such data have been collected since the 1950s. We analyze data from 2003 to 2016 which can be mapped onto standard indicator sites for bi-weekly time series and spatial analysis. Our analysis uses a combination of simple regression and visual assessment of maps and graphs to describe patterns within subbasins, as well as larger-scale patterns within the Salish Sea. We also make spatial comparisons between the annual initiation of toxic shellfish beds and A. catanella benthic cyst concentrations. By determining the presence or absence of spatial or temporal trends, we hope to contribute to shellfish sampling efficacy and efficiency, help prioritize shellfish sampling and location, and thereby reduce the risk of human consumption of Paralytic Shellfish Toxins

Climate Change and the World’s “Sacred Sea”—Lake Baikal, Siberia

Lake Baikal—the world\u27s largest, oldest, and most biotically diverse lake—is responding strongly to climate change, according to recent analyses of water temperature and ice cover. By the end of this century, the climate of the Baikal region will be warmer and wetter, particularly in winter. As the climate changes, ice cover and transparency, water temperature, wind dynamics and mixing, and nutrient levels are the key abiotic variables that will shift, thus eliciting many biotic responses. Among the abiotic variables, changes in ice cover will quite likely alter food-web structure and function most because of the diverse ways in which ice affects the lake\u27s dominant primary producers (endemic diatoms), the top predator (the world\u27s only freshwater seal), and other abiotic variables. Melting permafrost will probably exacerbate the effects of additional anthropogenic stressors (industrial pollution and cultural eutrophication) and could greatly affect ecosystem functioning

Agricultural data management and sharing: Best practices and case study

Agricultural data are crucial to many aspects of production, commerce, and research involved in feeding the global community. However, in most agricultural research disciplines standard best practices for data management and publication do not exist. Here we propose a set of best practices in the areas of peer review, minimal dataset development, data repositories, citizen science initiatives, and support for best data management. We illustrate some of these best practices with a case study in dairy agroecosystems research. While many common, and increasingly disparate data management and publication practices are entrenched in agricultural disciplines, opportunities are readily available for promoting and adopting best practices that better enable and enhance data-intensive agricultural research and production

Alexandrium cyst distribution and germination in Puget Sound

The Puget Sound Alexandrium Harmful Algal Bloom (PS-AHAB: www.tiny.cc/psahab) program, funded by NOAA/ECOHAB, seeks to understand environmental controls on the benthic (cyst) and planktonic life stages of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella, and disentangle the effects of climate pathways on the timing and location of blooms. Spatially detailed mapping of winter surface sediment cyst distributions in 2011, 2012, and 2013 found the highest cyst concentrations in Bellingham Bay in the north and Quartermaster Harbor in central Puget Sound. However, the viability of cysts at these seed bed areas is low – with fewer than 54% of cysts germinating when incubated at favorable temperatures. The time of year that cysts can germinate does not appear to be controlled by an endogenous clock, but the rate of germination is strongly determined by temperature. These results may complicate potential relationships between cyst abundances and bloom magnitude the following season. A monthly time series of cyst abundances was also collected at two locations in Quartermaster Harbor from 2012-2013 as part of a related Sea Grant project investigating the seasonal variability in cyst abundances. Cyst abundances varied by a factor of ~6 with the lowest cyst abundances occurring in the spring (Apr) and the highest cyst abundances occurring in late fall (Oct/Nov). This seasonal pattern is consistent with observed A. catenella bloom dynamics in Quartermaster Harbor. The improved understanding of the processes that govern cyst germination and bloom initiation provided by this study contribute towards the development of a predictive capacity for A. catenella blooms in Puget Sound. Details on A. catenella growth rates and toxicity and an analysis of potential bloom transport using a high-resolution hydrodynamic simulation of Puget Sound and adjacent coastal waters (MoSSea: http://faculty.washington.edu/pmacc/MoSSea/), as well as simulations of potential future climate impacts on blooms, will be discussed in separate presentations by B.D. Bill and S.K. Moore respectively, at this conference

Tidal Breathing Measurements at Discharge and Clinical Outcomes in Extremely Low Gestational Age Neonates

Rationale: The relationship between respiratory function at hospital discharge and the severity of later respiratory disease in extremely low gestational age neonates is not well defined. Objectives: To test the hypothesis that tidal breathing measurements near the time of hospital discharge differ between extremely premature infants with BPD or respiratory disease in the first year of life compared to those without these conditions. Methods: Study subjects were part of the Prematurity and Respiratory Outcomes Program (PROP) study, a longitudinal cohort study of infants born <29 gestational weeks followed from birth to 1 year of age. Respiratory inductance plethysmography was used for tidal breathing measurements before and after inhaled albuterol 1 week prior to anticipated hospital discharge. Infants were breathing spontaneously and were receiving ≤1 liter per minute (lpm) nasal cannula flow at 21-100% FiO2. A survey of respiratory morbidity was administered to caregivers at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months corrected age to assess for respiratory disease. We compared tidal breathing measurements in infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD, oxygen requirement at 36 wk) and with and without respiratory disease in the first year of life. Measurements were also performed in a comparison cohort of term infants. Results: 765 infants survived to 36 weeks post-menstrual age, with research-quality tidal breathing data in 452 out of 564 tested (80.1%). Among these 452 infants, the rate of post-discharge respiratory disease was 65.7%. Compared to a group of 18 term infants, PROP infants had abnormal tidal breathing patterns. However, there were no significant differences in tidal breathing measurements in PROP infants who had BPD or who had respiratory disease in the first year of life compared to those without these diagnoses. Bronchodilator response was not significantly associated with respiratory disease in the first year of life. Conclusions: Extremely premature infants receiving <1 lpm nasal cannula support at 21-100% FiO2 have tidal breathing measurements that differ from term infants, but these measurements do not differentiate those preterm infants who have BPD or will have respiratory disease in the first year of life from those who do not

\u27I need time to start antiretroviral therapy\u27: Understanding reasons for delayed ART initiation among people diagnosed with HIV in Lusaka, Zambia

INTRODUCTION: Rapid antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation can improve patient outcomes such as viral suppression and prevent new infections. However, not everyone who can start ART does so immediately. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study to inform interventions supporting rapid initiation in the \u27Test and Start\u27 era. We purposively sampled 20 adult patients living with HIV and a previous gap in care from ten health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia for interviews. We inductively analysed transcripts using a thematic, narrative approach. In their narratives, seven participants discussed delaying ART initiation. RESULTS: Drawing on messages gleaned from facility-based counselling and community information, many cited greater fear of rapid sickness or death due to imperfect adherence or treatment side effects than negative health consequences due to delayed initiation. Participants described needing time to \u27prepare\u27 their minds for a lifetime treatment commitment. Concerns about inadvertent HIV status disclosure during drug collection discouraged immediate initiation, as did feeling healthy, and worries about the impact of ART initiation on relationship dynamics. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that counselling messages should accurately communicate treatment risks, without perpetuating fear-based narratives about HIV. Identifying and managing patient-specific concerns and reasons for the \u27need for time\u27 may be important for supporting individuals to rapidly accept lifelong treatment.Key messagesFear-based adherence messaging in health facilities about the dangers of missing a treatment dose or changing the time when ART is taken contributes to Zambian patients\u27 refusals of immediate ART initiationResponsive health systems that balance a stated need for time to accept one\u27s diagnosis and prepare to embark on a lifelong treatment plan with interventions to identify and manage patient-specific treatment related fears and concerns may support more rapid ART initiationPerceived social stigma around HIV continues to be a significant challenge for treatment initiation