Decision-Making in Agent-Based Modeling: A Current Review and Future Prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory.While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs

1437. Family Duty and Safety Linked to Overcoming Attitudinal Barriers to Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination in Disparate Populations

Background: Minority adult populations are at a higher risk for invasive pneumococcal disease and also have significantly lower vaccination rates when compared with the general population. Ingrained attitudes are a significant barrier to receipt of pneumococcal vaccine in these disparate populations, and therefore we tested targeted informational messaging to overcome these. Methods: A survey instrument of attitudinal questions related to pneumococcal vaccination was administered via YouGov, an online public national survey house in 2017. Socioeconomic information was captured and linked to baseline Likert scale attitudinal question responses. Respondents were randomly assigned into subsamples that received different science-based messages that included information on pneumococcal vaccines related to: pneumonia prevention, fatality/consequences, vaccine safety information, family duty/safety, and a combined vignette including all of these. Because of the random assignment, any differences observed in the respondents’ outcomes across subsamples can be attributed to the messages. Descriptive statistics were used to compare the persuasive effectiveness of these messages to conventional vaccine information across racial and ethnic groups. Results: A total of 2,608 respondents, 1,327 (51%) white and 1,281 (49%) non-white (over-sampled) were represented. Of the total respondents as well as in white, and non-white respondents, the combined vignette was associated with positive coefficients of b = 0.26, b = 0.24, and b = 0.32, respectively (P-values all \u3c0.05). In whites, the vaccine safety information and family duty/safety also had significant coefficients b = 0.24 ( = P = 0.012) and b = 0.24 (P = 0016), respectively. In non-Whites, family duty/safety was the only additional message with a significant coefficient b = 0.25 (P = 0.007). Conclusion: In this survey assessing attitudes toward pneumococcal vaccination across racial and ethnic subpopulations, the disparate population was persuaded to receive the vaccine only when family duty and safety were linked within the informational messages. Future studies implementing this informational messaging strategy should be performed to validate this finding

Metagenomes of tropical soil-derived anaerobic switchgrass-adapted consortia with and without iron

Tropical forest soils decompose litter rapidly with frequent episodes of anoxia, making it likely that bacteria using alternate terminal electron acceptors (TEAs) such as iron play a large role in supporting decomposition under these conditions. The prevalence of many types of metabolism in litter deconstruction makes these soils useful templates for improving biofuel production. To investigate how iron availability affects decomposition, we cultivated feedstock-adapted consortia (FACs) derived from iron-rich tropical forest soils accustomed to experiencing frequent episodes of anaerobic conditions and frequently fluctuating redox. One consortium was propagated under fermenting conditions, with switchgrass as the sole carbon source in minimal media (SG only FACs), and the other consortium was treated the same way but received poorly crystalline iron as an additional terminal electron acceptor (SG + Fe FACs). We sequenced the metagenomes of both consortia to a depth of about 150 Mb each, resulting in a coverage of 26× for the more diverse SG + Fe FACs, and 81× for the relatively less diverse SG only FACs. Both consortia were able to quickly grow on switchgrass, and the iron-amended consortium exhibited significantly higher microbial diversity than the unamended consortium. We found evidence of higher stress in the unamended FACs and increased sugar transport and utilization in the iron-amended FACs. This work provides metagenomic evidence that supplementation of alternative TEAs may improve feedstock deconstruction in biofuel production

Restoring shellfish reefs: Global guidelines for practitioners and scientists

Widespread global declines in shellfish reefs (ecosystem-forming bivalves such as oysters and mussels) have led to growing interest in their restoration and protection. With restoration projects now occurring on four continents and in at least seven countries, global restoration guidelines for these ecosystems have been developed based on experience over the past two decades. The following key elements of the guidelines are outlined: (a) the case for shellfish reef resto- ration and securing financial resources; (b) planning, feasibility, and goal set- ting; (c) biosecurity and permitting; (d) restoration in practice; (e) scaling up from pilot to larger scale restoration, (f) monitoring, (g) restoration beyond oyster reefs (specifically mussels), and (h) successful communication for shell- fish reef restoration projects

Personalized Nutrition as a Key Contributor to Improving Radiation Response in Breast Cancer

Understanding metabolic and immune regulation inherent to patient populations is key to improving the radiation response for our patients. To date, radiation therapy regimens are prescribed based on tumor type and stage. Patient populations who are noted to have a poor response to radiation such as those of African American descent, those who have obesity or metabolic syndrome, or senior adult oncology patients, should be considered for concurrent therapies with radiation that will improve response. Here, we explore these populations of breast cancer patients, who frequently display radiation resistance and increased mortality rates, and identify the molecular underpinnings that are, in part, responsible for the radiation response and that result in an immune-suppressive tumor microenvironment. The resulting immune phenotype is discussed to understand how antitumor immunity could be improved. Correcting nutrient deficiencies observed in these populations should be considered as a means to improve the therapeutic index of radiation therapy

Dacron® vs. PTFE as bypass materials in peripheral vascular surgery – systematic review and meta-analysis

Roll S, Müller-Nordhorn J, Keil T, et al. Dacron® vs. PTFE as bypass materials in peripheral vascular surgery – systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Surgery. 2008;8(1): 22.Background: In peripheral vascular bypass surgery different synthetic materials are available for bypass grafting. It is unclear which of the two commonly used materials, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) or polyester (Dacron®) grafts, is to be preferred. Thus, the aim of this meta-analysis and systematic review was to compare the effectiveness of these two prosthetic bypass materials (Dacron® and PTFE). Methods: We performed a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Cochrane-Library – CENTRAL, EMBASE and other databases for relevant publications in English and German published between 1999 and 2008. Only randomized controlled trials were considered for inclusion. We assessed the methodological quality by means of standardized checklists. Primary patency was used as the main endpoint. Random-effect meta-analysis as well as pooling data in life table format was performed to combine study results. Results: Nine randomized controlled trials (RCT) were included. Two trials showed statistically significant differences in primary patency, one favouring Dacron® and one favouring PTFE grafts, while 7 trials did not show statistically significant differences between the two materials. Meta-analysis on the comparison of PTFE vs. Dacron® grafts yielded no differences with regard to primary patency rates (hazard ratio 1.04 (95% confidence interval [0.85;1.28]), no significant heterogeneity (p = 0.32, I2 = 14%)). Similarly, there were no significant differences with regard to secondary patency rates. Conclusion: Systematic evaluation and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing Dacron® and PTFE as bypass materials for peripheral vascular surgery showed no evidence of an advantage of one synthetic material over the other

New structural analogues of curcumin exhibit potent growth suppressive activity in human colorectal carcinoma cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal carcinoma is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the Western World. Novel therapeutic approaches are needed for colorectal carcinoma. Curcumin, the active component and yellow pigment of turmeric, has been reported to have several anti-cancer activities including anti-proliferation, anti-invasion, and anti-angiogenesis. Clinical trials have suggested that curcumin may serve as a potential preventive or therapeutic agent for colorectal cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the inhibitory effects of curcumin and novel structural analogues, GO-Y030, FLLL-11, and FLLL-12, in three independent human colorectal cancer cell lines, SW480, HT-29, and HCT116. MTT cell viability assay was used to examine the cell viability/proliferation and western blots were used to determine the level of PARP cleavages. Half-Maximal inhibitory concentrations (IC₅₀) were calculated using Sigma Plot 9.0 software.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Curcumin inhibited cell viability in all three of the human colorectal cancer cell lines studied with IC₅₀values ranging between 10.26 μM and 13.31 μM. GO-Y030, FLLL-11, and FLLL-12 were more potent than curcumin in the inhibition of cell viability in these three human colorectal cancer cell lines with IC₅₀values ranging between 0.51 μM and 4.48 μM. In addition, FLLL-11 and FLLL-12 exhibit low toxicity to WI-38 normal human lung fibroblasts with an IC-50 value greater than 1,000 μM. GO-Y030, FLLL-11, and FLLL-12 are also more potent than curcumin in the induction of apoptosis, as evidenced by cleaved PARP and cleaved caspase-3 in all three human colorectal cancer cell lines studied.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results indicate that the three curcumin analogues studied exhibit more potent inhibitory activity than curcumin in human colorectal cancer cells. Thus, they may have translational potential as chemopreventive or therapeutic agents for colorectal carcinoma.</p

Social Factors Key to Landscape-Scale Coastal Restoration: Lessons Learned from Three U.S. Case Studies

In the United States, extensive investments have been made to restore the ecological function and services of coastal marine habitats. Despite a growing body of science supporting coastal restoration, few studies have addressed the suite of societally enabling conditions that helped facilitate successful restoration and recovery efforts that occurred at meaningful ecological (i.e., ecosystem) scales, and where restoration efforts were sustained for longer (i.e., several years to decades) periods. Here, we examined three case studies involving large-scale and long-term restoration efforts including the seagrass restoration effort in Tampa Bay, Florida, the oyster restoration effort in the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland and Virginia, and the tidal marsh restoration effort in San Francisco Bay, California. The ecological systems and the specifics of the ecological restoration were not the focus of our study. Rather, we focused on the underlying social and political contexts of each case study and found common themes of the factors of restoration which appear to be important for maintaining support for large-scale restoration efforts. Four critical elements for sustaining public and/or political support for large-scale restoration include: (1) resources should be invested in building public support prior to significant investments into ecological restoration; (2) building political support provides a level of significance to the recovery planning efforts and creates motivation to set and achieve meaningful recovery goals; (3) recovery plans need to be science-based with clear, measurable goals that resonate with the public; and (4) the accountability of progress toward reaching goals needs to be communicated frequently and in a way that the general public comprehends. These conclusions may help other communities move away from repetitive, single, and seemingly unconnected restoration projects towards more large-scale, bigger impact, and coordinated restoration efforts