A Great Leap Forward, the Second Time Around: Thirty Years of Economic Reforms in China

December of 2008 marks the 30th year of the beginning of China's economic opening. The country's rapid development since 1978 is without historical precedent. Yet this growth is even more impressive when one surveys the entire period from the founding of the People's Republic in 1949 to present. Although the years from1949 to 1978 were close to catastrophic, and the basis for economic development over the next thirty years could have hardly been worse, on the 60th anniversary of the government's founding, the country's achievements - at least from an economic perspective - must be viewed as an extraordinary success. On the 30th anniversary of China's economic opening, the following article assesses that which has been achieved to date. It also explores the causes of the economic stagnation of the "lost decades" between 1949 and 1978. The deep stagnation experienced during the early years of the People's Republic as well as China's reorientation in 1978 and subsequent boom can only be understood with reference to this historical period. Any assessment of the country's present-day political and economic situation is also contingent upon an appreciation of the long cycles that characterize Chinese history. Since the opening of the country and its rise to the world's second-largest economy and trading partner, China has surpassed Japan and taken on equal standing with the EU as the most significant decision maker in economic and political affairs after the US. China's importance is not yet reflected in World Bank and IMF quotas or in the composition of the G8-yet China is sure to take on an increasingly prominent role in coming years. If China can maintain the growth rates witnessed over the past three decades, in less than 15 years it will surpass the US as the world's largest economy and most significant trading partner. While the future is by no means preordained, all of the preconditions for this to occur are in place. China still possesses large labor reserves; is a net creditor to the rest of the world and holds currency reserves of a historically unprecedented volume; will soon be the largest and most dynamic domestic market in the world (and will therefore continue to attract direct foreign investment); and displays considerable potential for growth in domestic demand. Furthermore, the reform of China's financial sector and the deregulation of capital flows could potentially stoke additional economic expansion. The current financial crisis has not left China unscathed, but is unlikely to have a lasting effect on the country's long-term development.China, Communism, Market Economy, Gradualism

The Russian Banking Sector: Unsolved Problems Seven Years after the Crisis

The Russian foreign exchange and financial market crisis of summer 1998 was caused by international movements of capital following the Asian crisis, and it plunged the Russian commercial banks into major difficulties. Practically the entire banking sector was hit by acute liquidity shortage. The main cause of the banking crisis must be seen in the banking sector regulation, which was defective if not lacking altogether. This encouraged the banks to take big exchange rate risks on liabilities in foreign currencies, and to lend with little risk diversification, which proved fatal in the crisis. The method used by the Russian authorities to deal with the crisis was also unorthodox by western standards. The crisis was overcome without major restructuring in the banking sector and accomplished at astonishingly little cost to the economy as a whole. However, the success in the form of good growth rates in every year since 1998 only seemingly justifies this neglect, for the relatively weak constitution of the banking sector in Russia _ compared with other transition economies _ has certainly hampered even better economic development. Although some more recent legislative initiatives do give reason to hope for improvement here, powerful interests are still preventing the optimal restructuring of the banking scene that is necessary for the economy as a whole.

THE EURO AND CAPITAL MARKETS: A NEW ERA

This paper is organised as follows. Section 2 examines the forces that have changed the financial landscape at the world level over the last two decades. Section 3 summarises the arguments of how the introduction of the euro should add to these broader economic forces in reshaping euro financial markets. Section 4 verifies whether the actual experience since January 1999 has been in line with the ex ante expectations. Most of the analysis will be based on developments of the bond market. Section 5 offers some conclusions.Euro; capital markets; bonds

Economic Development in Turkey Stabilizes: Banking Sector Reforms Make Progress

The year 2004 saw Turkey take a big step forward to the European Union, as international investors also believe, and in December last year the European Council opened up real prospects of entry for Turkey for the first time. Agreement was also reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on further support, chiefly to secure the servicing of public debt in the next few years. The consequences of the serious financial crisis in 2001 now seem to be largely overcome, although the inflation rate is still too high - currently at around 9%. However, it is believed that Turkey may well fulfil the Maastricht criteria for public budgets in the next two years. According to the latest figures economic growth was around 9% last year, and strong growth is expected this year as well. This analysis takes a closer look at some of the important aspects of Turkey's economic development in recent years and the state of the reforms already carried out, particularly in the banking sector. It shows that the Turkish economy is developing very satisfactorily - compared with the development in the most recent new EU member states as well, so at least in the economic perspective Turkey's aim of coming close to EU membership in the medium term does not appear to be unrealistic.

THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR - CHALLENGES AND OUTLOOK IN TRANSITION TO EU MEMBERSHIP

The paper explores the readiness of the Turkish banking sector for integration into the European Union. We address the issue from four different angles. First, we review the present structure and health of the sector, including the state of the regulatory framework, providing where possible a comparative perspective with the larger EU accession countries. Second, we look at the sector's financial solidity in 2003, with a view to gauging its readiness to adapt to a more challenging banking environment. Third, we look at the present obstacles to financial deepening and identify the most pressing issues that seem to hinder the sector's growth. Fourth, we explore issues of productivity and efficiency in the sector. In a final section, we ask the question of whether the Turkish banking sector is or will be ready in due time for EU accession and formulate some policy recommendations. We conclude that in 2004 the Turkish banking sector compares well with those of the new members of the EU. The major source of financial instability in the past was macroeconomic instability and government involvement. At present Turkey is closer to achieving macro-stability than ever in the past, and the government is reducing its direct involvement. Major strides have been accomplished after the crisis of 2001 in cleaning up a very nontransparent and politicized banking environment and in upgrading the regulatory structure to EU standards. Clearly, the job is not finished yet, with the challenge of introducing risk-management based on Basle II and of bringing the capital market to EU standards. Further consolidation and mergers with foreign partners will be inevitable. Should EU integration become a concrete vision of the future, macro stability has great chances to become rooted in Turkey and the banking sector will quickly move to EU standards, long before any accession date.Banking sector; European Union; integration; Turkey; regulatory framework

Design requirements for behavior change support systems with high use continuance: insights for the target group of students

To counteract the high academic stress of students and subsequent health problems, a behavior change support system (BCSS) for self-regulated learning is developed. Since use continence is a prerequisite for the system’s supporting effects, this study examines design requirements that promote its use continuance. While previous studies on BCSS’s use continuance are mostly quantitative using pre-defined constructs, this study additionally considers qualitative statements to exploratively identify additional requirements. Analysis of statements from 54 students and quantitative data from 25 students identifies 19 design requirements, which can be synthesized into ten meta requirements. These findings support the integration of already defined design principles, e.g., self-monitoring, but also reveal new requirements, e.g., a low-threshold character or the promotion of learning about the targeted behavior. The data also suggest that the design of the BCSS does not affect all students equally, but that perceptions of use continuance are dependent on individual preferences

Streuobstbestände erhalten durch gemeinschaftliche Nutzungskonzepte − Analyse von Fallbeispielen aus dem Land Brandenburg

Streuobstbestände sind trotz zahlreicher nützlicher Funktionen stark gefährdete Biotope und akut von der Vernichtung bedroht. Hauptursache für die starke Gefährdung und den massiven Rückgang der Bestände ist, dass sich der gewerbliche Streuobstbau seit Jahren als unwirtschaftlich erweist und aufgegeben wird. In dieser Arbeit wurden daher Alternativen zur klassischen gewerblichen Nutzung − gemeinschaftliche Nutzungskonzepte − anhand von vier Fallbeispielen aus Brandenburg auf ihren Beitrag zum Erhalt von Streuobstbeständen hin untersucht. Die Analyse zeigte, dass gemeinschaftliche Nutzungskonzepte im Vergleich zu gewerblichen sehr gute Pflegezustände ihrer Streuobstbestände aufweisen und die notwendigen ökologischen und sozio-ökonomischen Pflegemaßnahmen (z.B. Schnitt oder Öffentlichkeitsarbeit) umfangreich und kontinuierlich erbringen. Den Konzepten gelingt es zudem, ihre interne Struktur derartig auszugestalten, dass ein langlebiges Bestehen der gemeinschaftlichen Pflege und Nutzung der Bestände zu erwarten ist. Trotz Herausforderungen und Grenzen für derartige Konzepte zeigte sich, dass gemeinschaftliche Nutzungskonzepte vielfältige Potenziale haben: den Erhalt von Streuobstbeständen ganzheitlich anzugehen, die multiplen Funktionen von Streuobst über zahlreiche Formate zu vermitteln und dabei weder ökonomischen Rentabilitätszwängen, noch schwankenden Ertragsmengen oder dem Druck des Marktes zu unterliegen. Sie bieten dadurch neue und geeignetere Ansätze für den Erhalt von Streuobst, als bisher in der Literatur proklamiert, sowie vielversprechende Chancen eine zukunftsfähige und zeitgemäße Streuobstnutzung mit möglichst vielen Beteiligten neu zu denken

Design requirements for behavior change support systems with high use continuance: insights for the target group of students

To counteract the high academic stress of students and subsequent health problems, a behavior change support system (BCSS) for self-regulated learning is developed. Since use continence is a prerequisite for the system’s supporting effects, this study examines design requirements that promote its use continuance. While previous studies on BCSS’s use continuance are mostly quantitative using pre-defined constructs, this study additionally considers qualitative statements to exploratively identify additional requirements. Analysis of statements from 54 students and quantitative data from 25 students identifies 19 design requirements, which can be synthesized into ten meta requirements. These findings support the integration of already defined design principles, e.g., self-monitoring, but also reveal new requirements, e.g., a low-threshold character or the promotion of learning about the targeted behavior. The data also suggest that the design of the BCSS does not affect all students equally, but that perceptions of use continuance are dependent on individual preferences

Großer Sprung im zweiten Anlauf: 30 Jahre Wirtschaftsreformen in China

Im Dezember 2008 jährt sich der Beginn der wirtschaftlichen Öffnung Chinas zum dreißigsten Mal. Der Wachstumsspurt der Volksrepublik China seit 1978 übertrifft alles bisher Bekannte. Diese Dynamik ist umso beachtlicher, blickt man auf den gesamten Zeitraum seit der Gründung der Volksrepublik im Oktober 1949 zurück: Obwohl die Jahre 1949 bis 1978 einer Katastrophe gleichkamen, die Ausgangslage für die folgenden 30 Jahre kaum ungünstiger sein konnte, wird die Bilanz zur 60- Jahr-Feier der Volksrepublik zumindest aus ökonomischer Sicht außerordentlich positiv ausfallen. Seit der Öffnung und dem wirtschaftlichen Aufstieg zur zweitgrößten Wirtschafts- und Handelsmacht hat China Japan überholt und aufgeschlossen zur Europäischen Union als wichtigstem wirtschaftspolitischen Entscheidungsträger nach den Vereinigten Staaten. Diese Bedeutung Chinas spiegelt sich noch nicht in den Quoten von Weltbank und Währungsfonds oder der G8-Grupppe wider, aber dies ist nur eine Frage der Zeit. Wenn China das Wachstum der vergangenen Jahrzehnte aufrechterhalten kann, wird es in weniger als 15 Jahren die Vereinigten Staaten als größte Wirtschafts- und Handelsmacht der Welt ablösen. Die Voraussetzungen dafür sind vorhanden. China hat noch große ungenutzte Arbeitsreserven, ist Nettogläubiger der restlichen Welt und verfügt daher über Devisenreserven in einer bislang unerreichten Größenordnung, ist bald der größte Binnenmarkt der Welt und bleibt weiterhin attraktiv für ausländische Direktinvestoren. Reformen des Finanzwesens und Liberalisierung der Zahlungsbilanz können zusätzliche Wachstumsschübe auslösen. Die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise lässt China nicht unberührt, hat aber keinen nachhaltigen Einfluss auf die langfristige Entwicklung.China, Communism, Market Economy, Gradualism