Cohort effects and the returns to education in West Germany

Using a Mincer-type wage function, we estimate cohort effects in the returns to education for West German workers born between 1925 and 1974. The main problem to be tackled in the specification is to separately identify cohort, experience, and possibly also age effects in the returns. For women, we find a large and robust decline in schooling premia: in the private sector, the returns to a further year of post-compulsory education fell from twelve per cent for the 1945-49 cohort to about seven per cent for those born in the early 1970s. Cohort effects in men?s returns to education are less obvious, but we do find evidence that they, too, have declined. We conclude by identifying possible reasons for the decline. --returns to education,cohort effects,population ageing

Semiparametric Multinomial Logit Models for Analysing Consumer Choice Behaviour

The multinomial logit model (MNL) is one of the most frequently used statistical models in marketing applications. It allows to relate an unordered categorical response variable, for example representing the choice of a brand, to a vector of covariates such as the price of the brand or variables characterising the consumer. In its classical form, all covariates enter in strictly parametric, linear form into the utility function of the MNL model. In this paper, we introduce semiparametric extensions, where smooth effects of continuous covariates are modelled by penalised splines. A mixed model representation of these penalised splines is employed to obtain estimates of the corresponding smoothing parameters, leading to a fully automated estimation procedure. To validate semiparametric models against parametric models, we utilise proper scoring rules and compare parametric and semiparametric approaches for a number of brand choice data sets

Cohort effects and the returns to education in West Germany

Using a Mincer-type wage function, we estimate cohort effects in the returns to education for West German workers born between 1925 and 1974. The main problem to be tackled in the specification is to separately identify cohort, experience, and possibly also age effects in the returns. For women, we find a large and robust decline in schooling premia: in the private sector, the returns to a further year of post-compulsory education fell from twelve per cent for the 1945-49 cohort to about seven per cent for those born in the early 1970s. Cohort effects in men's returns to education are less obvious, but we do find evidence that they, too, have declined. We conclude by identifying possible reasons for the decline

Conjoint-Analyse und Marktsegmentierung

Die Marktsegmentierung zählt neben der Neuproduktplanung und Preisgestaltung zu den wesentlichen Einsatzgebieten der Conjoint-Analyse. Neben traditionell eingesetzten zweistufigen Vorgehensweisen, bei denen Conjoint-Analyse und Segmentierung in zwei getrennten Schritten erfolgen, stehen heute mit Methoden wie der Clusterwise Regression oder Mixture-Modellen neuere Entwicklungen, die eine simultane Segmentierung und Präferenzschätzung ermöglichen, zur Verfügung. Der Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über die vorliegenden methodischen Ansätze zur Verknüpfung von Conjoint-Analyse und Marktsegmentierung und zeigt die Vorzüge simultaner Conjointsegmentierungsmethoden gegenüber den in der Unternehmenspraxis noch immer weit verbreiteten zweistufigen Verfahren auf. Along with new product/concept identification and pricing, market segmentation ranks among the primary purposes in commercial conjoint applications. Traditionally, this conjoint segmentation has been accomplished by a two-step procedure, (1) either by first segmenting markets and subsequently estimating conjoint models at the segment level or (2) by first conducting conjoint analysis at the individual level and then clustering individual level part-worths. However, in recent years, some powerful techniques for simultaneously performing market segmentation and calibrating segment-level part-worths such as clusterwise regression procedures and mixture models have been proposed. This article provides an overview of existing conjoint segmentation methods and particularly focuses on the newer simultaneous approaches which offer substantial advantages compared to the traditional two-step procedures.Marktsegmentierung; Conjoint-Analyse ; Simultanverfahren;

Vector Field Embryogeny

We present a novel approach toward evolving artificial embryogenies, which omits the graph representation of gene regulatory networks and directly shapes the dynamics of a system, i.e., its phase space. We show the feasibility of the approach by evolving cellular differentiation, a basic feature of both biological and artificial development. We demonstrate how a spatial hierarchy formulation can be integrated into the framework and investigate the evolution of a hierarchical system. Finally, we show how the framework allows the investigation of allometry, a biological phenomenon, and its role for evolution. We find that direct evolution of allometric change, i.e., the evolutionary adaptation of the speed of system states on transient trajectories in phase space, is advantageous for a cellular differentiation task

Model building, refinement and validation

An introduction to the proceedings of the CCP4 Study Weekend held at the University of Warwick on the 6–7 January 2011

A Worker-Like Female of Myrmica sabuleti (Meinert, 1861) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Myrmicinae) in a Pitfall Trap with Five Mermithids (Nematoda: Mermithidae) Protruding from the Gaster

A worker-like female of Myrmica sabuleti (Meinert, 1861), pitfall-trapped near Jena, Germany, in late summer 2016, was infested by five postparasitic juvenile mermithids. They poked out of the ant´s gaster as a trail of seven filaments of various lengths. Apart from its swollen gaster, the ant differed from conspecifics in several morphometric parameters. Using both morphological and molecular techniques, the parasite family Mermithidae was confirmed. Our stray find raises multiple questions concerning the genus and species identity of the parasite, its biology, and the infestation rate of the host ant population. More mermithid awareness by the various researchers working with Myrmica will help, but directed fieldwork, experimental life-history research, and molecular studies are needed to emancipate progress in ant-mermithid research from serendipity

Assessment of the Coral Reefs of the Turks and Caicos Islands (Part 2: Fish Communities)

Ecologically and commercially significant coral reef fishes were surveyed at 28 sites in the Turks and Caicos Islands during August 1999. Our results constitute the first quantitative census of these fishes and can serve as baseline information for subsequent studies. Their density and size generally were highest off West Caicos and lowest in Mouchoir Bank. Herbivore density overall showed no correlation with macroalgal index (a proxy for biomass) or live stony coral cover, but surgeonfish density was positively correlated with macroalgal index. Species richness of these select fishes was positively correlated with the species richness of stony corals that were ≥10cm in diameter. Current fishing pressures overall were low, and the reef-fish communities appeared relatively intact on the Turks and Caicos Banks. However, overfishing and destructive fishing practices have negatively impacted the reef fish communities on Mouchoir Bank

Carpal, tarsal, and stifle skin lesion prevalence and potential risk factors in Swiss dairy cows kept in tie stalls: A cross-sectional study.

The prevalence of skin lesions at the legs of dairy cows often serves as an indicator for animal welfare and is used as a measurement of adequacy of the present housing conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of skin lesions at the carpus, tarsus, and stifle in Swiss dairy cows kept in tie stalls and to describe potential risk factors associated with the different types and severities thereof. Skin lesions and potential risk factors were assessed in 627 cows of 27 tie stall farms in a cross-sectional study. The associations of each outcome and the potential risk factors were assessed by means of logistic regression models using farm as the random factor. One odds ratio was obtained for each biologically relevant risk factor category and the final models were compared between the lesion types and locations. Tarsal lesions were recorded most frequently, with a prevalence of 62.2, 34.4, and 24.0% for moderate to severe hair loss, any severity of ulceration, and moderate to severe swelling, respectively. The prevalence of carpal lesions ranged from 54.4% for hair loss, over 7.7% for ulceration, to 6.1% for swelling, while stifle lesions were recorded less frequently with a prevalence of 18.6, 8.9, 3.4% for hair loss, ulceration, and swelling, respectively. The risk for various skin lesion types and locations significantly increased, when the concrete stall base was covered with a rubber mat and the bedding depth was low. Cows were at the lowest risk to develop skin lesions when they had more than 13 days of outdoor exercise per month. The prevalence of skin lesions in tied Swiss dairy cows is remarkably high and could possibly be reduced by providing the herd more frequent outdoor exercise and a well-cushioned, friction-absorbing and non-abrasive lying surface