Agreements on Climate Protection - The Verification Problem

The sustained reduction of climate gas emissions associated with the generation, conversion and utilization of energy is clearly becoming an ever more important task in energy and environmental policy . Different strategies are conceivable in order to fulfil this mission. The aim of the IKARUS Project ($\textbf{I}$nstrumente für $\textbf{K}$limag$\textbf{a}$s- $\textbf{R}$ed$\textbf{u}$ktions$\textbf{s}$trategien - Instruments for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies) was to provide a set of tools with which strategies can be developed and reconstructed (making conceptual use of the various technologies) and also tested with respect to their internal consistency and examined with regard to their economic impacts. Corresponding to the great complexity of the task in hand and the technological range of energy applications, the set of instruments is very extensive. It consists of two parts: a data base with a comprehensive data collection and several computer models of various types. The relational $\textbf{data base}$ in ORACLE with a graphics interface has a twofold function as a supplier to the model and as an independently usable information system. It is subdivided into a technology data base, model data base and general data base. The data were collected in six data subprojects for the reference year of 1989 and estimated for the years 2005 and 2020. The $\textbf{technology data base}$ contains technological, economic and ecological data on representative technologies ranging from primary energy extraction up to final energy use, supplemented by commentaries, graphics, structural diagrams and characteristic curve fields. The reliability of the data is represented and annotated by an assessment diagram so that a reconstructible, comprehensive basis for strategy discussions capable of finding consensus can be provided in accordance with the objective. In addition to the individual technologies, aggregated "mixed technology" data were generated as input data for the optimization model mentioned below and stored in the $\textbf{model data base}$. In order to keep this aggregation sufficiently flexible with respect to optimizing the energy supply and utilization system the user is provided with some aggregation tools, developed in the data subprojects, upstream of the optimization model in the interface of the data base. Finally, the $\textbf{general data base}$ contains exogenous [...

Aktuelle Trends der Flächennutzungsentwicklung, neue Indikatoren und Funktionalitäten des IÖR-Monitors

Der Monitor der Siedlungs- und Freiraumentwicklung (IÖR-Monitor) stellt seit 2010 Indikatoren zur Flächennutzungsentwicklung und zur Landschaftsqualität für Deutschland bereit. Vorgestellt werden aktuelle Ergebnisse der Flächennutzungsentwicklung und neue Indikatoren wie die Flächenproduktivität, Indikatoren zum Anteil von Siedlungs- und Verkehrsflächen sowie gebäudeüberbauten Flächen in amtlich festgesetzten Überschwemmungsgebieten, die Reliefvielfalt und -energie und die gehölzdominierte Ökotondichte. Ergänzt wurden Indikatoren zur Gesamtkraftverkehrs- und Fahrwegnetzdichte. Inzwischen werden viele Indikatoren auch als hochauflösende Rasterkarten bis zu 100 m Rasterweite präsentiert. Das ermöglicht interessante Differenzierungen insbesondere der Flächennutzung bzw. -bedeckung in urbanen und ruralen Landschaften. Ergänzt wurden WMS-Dienste, die die Einbindung der Rasterkarten in eigene GISUmgebungen ermöglichen. Die Datenangebote des IÖR-Monitors sind inzwischen INSPIRE-konform durch Metadaten beschrieben und Bestandteil der GDI-DE und des Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

Flächennutzungsmonitoring - aktuelle Ergebnisse und Entwicklungen im IÖR-Monitor

Nach Darstellung der Anforderungen an ein zeitgemäßes Flächennutzungsmonitoring werden aktuelle Ergebnisse des Monitors der Siedlungs- und Freiraumentwicklung (IÖR-Monitor) vorgestellt. Diese beruhen insbesondere auf der Analyse topographischen Geobasisdaten von 2012 (mittlere Grundaktualität 2010). Die Siedlungs- und Verkehrsfläche steigt danach weiter ungemindert, sodass keine Entwarnung bzgl. des Erreichens der Flächensparziele gegeben werden kann. Da sich der IÖR-Monitor insbesondere auf die Auswertung des ATKIS Basis-DLM stützt, werden dessen jüngste Entwicklungen mit den Aspekten Aktualität und AAA-Migration vorgestellt. Erstmals werden die Ergebnisse des IÖR-Monitors durch Migrationseffekte geringfügig beeinflusst, die im Detail dargestellt werden. Anschließend werden neue Indikatoren der Kategorie Siedlung (Bodenversiegelungsgrad), Gebäude (Gebäudedichte und -überbauungsgrad) sowie Landschaftsqualität (Anteil naturbetonter Flächen und Hemerobieindex) erläutert. Inzwischen ist auch die kleinräumige Indikatordarstellung in Form von Rasterkarten bis 100-m-Rasterweite in einem integrierten Detailviewer mit GIS-Funktionalität möglich. Die technische Realisierung und die verfügbaren Indikatorkarten werden kurz vorgestellt. Der Beitrag schließt mit einem Ausblick auf die nächsten Arbeiten im IÖR-Monitor ab

Der globale Wasserkreislauf und seine Beeinflussung durch den Menschen: Möglichkeiten zur Fernerkundungs-Detektion und -Verifikation

Die vorliegende Studie ist eine Erweiterung des Votragsmanuskriptes, daß von den Autoren zum Thema "Global Water Cycle" für die " lO$^{th}$ Summer School: Man-EnvironmentTechnology" im Rahmen der Zusammenarbeit zwischen der Universität Bonn und dem Forschungszentrum Jülich angefertigt wurde. Die Erweiterungen erfolgten im Bereich des Einsatzes satellitengestützer Sensortechniken zur quantitativen Abschätzung der Komponenten des globalen Wasserkreislaufs und zur Bewertung der anthropogen bedingten Änderungen dieser Komponenten. Diese Arbeit wurde im Rahmen des Projektes "Satellitengestützte Verifikationsverfahren" durchgeführt, die vom BMWI gefördert wurden. Ein Teil der Abbildungen dieser Studie wurde freundlicherweise von Kollegen per Internet bereitgestellt. In diesem Zusammenhang ist Herrn Kevin Trenberth vom National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Herrn David Randel vom Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere in Ft. Collins/Colorado und Herr Aiguo Dai von der Climate Analysis Section des National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder zu danken. Herrn Max Voß, Herrn Andreas Poth, Herrn Sascha Mertes und Herrn Sven Nußbaum möchten die Autoren an dieser Stelle für ihren unermüdlichen Einsatz bei der Bearbeitung der Abbildungen, bei der Textkorrektur und bei der endgültigen Textformatierung danken. Herrn Andreas Poth und Herrn Yamout gilt unser Dank für viele hilfreiche Hinweise auf weiterführende Internet-Informationen

Quantifying Detection Probabilities for Proliferation Activities in Undeclared Facilities

International Safeguards is currently in an evolutionary process to increase effiec-tiveness and efficiency of the verification system. This is an obvious consequence ofthe inability to detect the Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapons programme in the early90's. By the adoption of the Programme 93+2, this has led to the development ofIntegrated Safeguards and the State-level concept. Moreover, the IAEA's focus wasextended onto proliferation activities outside the State's declared facilities. The effec-tiveness of safeguards activities within declared facilities can and have been quantifiedwith respect to costs and detection probabilities. In contrast, when verifying the ab-sence of undeclared facilities this quantification has been avoided in the past becauseit has been considered to be impossible. However, when balancing the allocation ofbudget between the declared and the undeclared field, explicit reasoning is neededwhy safeguards effort is distributed in a given way. Such reasoning can be given by aholistic, information and risk-driven approach to Acquisition Path Analysis comprisingdeclared and undeclared facilities [1]. Regarding the input, this approach relies on thequantification of several factors, i.e. costs of attractiveness values for specific prolif-eration activities, potential safeguards measures and detection probabilities for thesemeasures also for the undeclared field. In order to overcome the lack of quantificationfor detection probabilities in undeclared facilities, the authors of this paper propose ageneral verification error model. Based on this model, four different approaches are ex-plained and assessed with respect to their advantages and disadvantages: the analogyapproach, the Bayes approach, the frequentist approach and the process approach.The paper concludes with a summary and an outlook on potential future researchactivities

Can State-level Safeguards be applied in Nuclear Weapon States?

Acquisition Path Analysis (APA) is a key element of IAEA’s State-level concept. Currently, this process is mainly based on expert judgment. However, the requirements from the IAEA state that the process must be objective, reproducible, transparent, standardized, documented and as a result non-discriminatory. A formal approach fulfilling these requirements has been set up by the authors in the past (see [1]). In this paper, the refined methodology is presented. Improvements have been made in the interface definition between the three stages, the general network model has been updated, and the automatic vi-sualization of acquisition paths has been accomplished. Furthermore, a prototype implementation will be shown. Based on this methodology, a test case example is presented which models a hypothetic nuclear weapon State not having signed the NPT. For this case, it will be shown how APA can be implemented using the proposed methodology. [1] C. Listner, M.J. Canty , A. Rezniczek, G. Stein, I. Niemeyer A Concept for Handling Acquisition Path Analysis in the Framework of IAEA’s State-level Approach Proceedings of the INMM Annual Meeting, 201

The Evolution of International Safeguards - A View from Germany

On March 25 in the year 1957, the treaty creating the European Atomic Energy Community, the so-called 'Euratom Treaty' was signed by West Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. This treaty constituted the legal framework to establish a multinational safeguards system in these countries to guarantee that nuclear materials are not diverted to purposes otherthan those intended.In 1973, the European Community signed an agreement with the IAEA to accept safeguards pursuant to the NPT on all nuclear material in all their peaceful activities. This 'Verification Agreement' provided the basic for a co-operation of Euratom and IAEA in conducting their respective safeguards activities. Over the years, this co-operation evolved into a real partnership now governed by the rule of 'one job one person'.In the sixties and the following two decades, Germany embarked into numerous nuclear activities covering nearly the whole spectrum of different nuclear facilities. Germany thus could collect experiences with safeguards approaches and safeguards practices for many installations in the nuclear fuel cycle which we will delineate exemplarily in our presentation.The paper will also deal with the new Safeguards approach based on the State Level Concept and Integrated Safeguards. The implication on Safeguards Implementation and evaluation for Germany will be analyzed

Acquisition Path Analysis: JCPOA Case Study

A systems-based approach to acquisition path analysis was developed under a request by the International Atomic Energy Agency Member State Support Program. The model evaluates a given state’s Physical Model to determine the optimal inspection strategy by first applying graph theory for the determination of the technically feasible acquisition paths by the state and then applying game theory for the evaluation of inspection and proliferation strategies. To satisfy the requirements of the request, the Physical Model was constructed as a directed graph such that edges represent processes leading to the nodes, which are material forms. In previous papers presented at the INMM annual meetings and elsewhere, the model was demonstrated by using two hypothetical states as examples. In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by Iran, the E3+3 and the European Union. Earlier this year, following the agreement’s schedule, Iran applied the Additional Protocol and modified Code 3.1 to its agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. This paper uses details within the JCPOA and its annexes along with open source information about the agreement to evaluate the utility of this systems-based approach to determine inspection strategies. By using the JCPOA as a data input, the model is demonstrated to be useful for acquisition path analysis. The results are critically evaluated and potential improvements to the acquisition path analysis model are detailed