Acquisition Path Analysis: JCPOA Case Study

Abstract

A systems-based approach to acquisition path analysis was developed under a request by the International Atomic Energy Agency Member State Support Program. The model evaluates a given state’s Physical Model to determine the optimal inspection strategy by first applying graph theory for the determination of the technically feasible acquisition paths by the state and then applying game theory for the evaluation of inspection and proliferation strategies. To satisfy the requirements of the request, the Physical Model was constructed as a directed graph such that edges represent processes leading to the nodes, which are material forms. In previous papers presented at the INMM annual meetings and elsewhere, the model was demonstrated by using two hypothetical states as examples. In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by Iran, the E3+3 and the European Union. Earlier this year, following the agreement’s schedule, Iran applied the Additional Protocol and modified Code 3.1 to its agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. This paper uses details within the JCPOA and its annexes along with open source information about the agreement to evaluate the utility of this systems-based approach to determine inspection strategies. By using the JCPOA as a data input, the model is demonstrated to be useful for acquisition path analysis. The results are critically evaluated and potential improvements to the acquisition path analysis model are detailed