Potential Minimum Threshold for Pallid Sturgeon Relative Condition in the Lower Missouri River

Pallid Sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) condition has declined in the lower Missouri River but the cause and the effects of this decline remain uncertain. Adult Pallid Sturgeon are becoming reproductively ready less frequently and sub-adult Pallid Sturgeon are likely delaying sexual maturation. Even more concerning, Pallid Sturgeon capture rates have declined the past two years (i.e., 2016 and 2017), despite the ongoing Pallid Sturgeon stocking program. Several Pallid Sturgeon that have been captured are visually emaciated but a minimum condition threshold has not been described. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present a potential lethal condition level for adult Pallid Sturgeon in the lower Missouri River then determine the capture frequency of Pallid Sturgeon below this assumed minimum condition threshold to test the validity of this hypothesis. Based on the mortality of an individual female adult Pallid Sturgeon held in captivity, mortality occurred when condition was 0.71. This potential minimum threshold is further supported with very few adult Pallid Sturgeon captured below this predicted minimum threshold. Using the minimum condition threshold established here to continue monitoring the Pallid Sturgeon population and the occurrence of individuals below this condition level could help managers better address factors hindering Pallid Sturgeon recovery

Population Characteristics, Development of a Predictive Population Viability Model, and Catch Dynamics for Pallid Sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River

Population characteristics and long-term population trends of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the lower Missouri River are relatively unknown. As recovery efforts continue, understanding and quantifying these characteristics and trends are critical for species recovery and future management decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the pallid sturgeon population characteristics, predict changes to the pallid sturgeon population based on different management and life history scenarios, and examine trot line catch dynamics in the lower Missouri River. Catch rates for pallid sturgeon collected with gill nets did not significantly change while catch rates using trot lines significantly declined for wild pallid sturgeon (P=0.0001) but did not differ among years for hatchery-reared fish (P=0.0610). The proportion of reproductively ready females to non-reproductively ready females was 1:2.0, compared to the male ratio of 1:0.9. The minimum female length-at-maturity was 788 mm and 798 mm for males while the minimum age-at-maturity for known aged hatchery-reared fish was age-9 for females and age-7 for males. The mean relative fecundity was 7%. Our population viability model was most sensitive to ≥age-1 survival rates. Fluctuating female spawning frequency by one year had minimal effect on the overall population growth and age-at-maturity was less sensitive than spawning frequency. Catch per unit effort was 14.6 fish per trot line rigged with hook timers to study the catch dynamics; however, several hook timers were activated but did not capture a fish. Therefore, the corrected CPUE was 17.7 fish per line with over half of the hook timer activations occurring 4-h post-deployment. Detecting shifts in population characteristics is essential for understanding population dynamics as hatchery inputs and natural perturbations continue to change the population structure. Barring any unforeseen natural catastrophes, the pallid sturgeon population in the lower Missouri River is not in immediate danger of local extirpation; however, the population appears to be a far from viable nor self-sustaining. Advisor: Mark A. Peg

Population Characteristics, Development of a Predictive Population Viability Model, and Catch Dynamics for Pallid Sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River

Population characteristics and long-term population trends of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the lower Missouri River are relatively unknown. As recovery efforts continue, understanding and quantifying these characteristics and trends are critical for species recovery and future management decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the pallid sturgeon population characteristics, predict changes to the pallid sturgeon population based on different management and life history scenarios, and examine trot line catch dynamics in the lower Missouri River. Catch rates for pallid sturgeon collected with gill nets did not significantly change while catch rates using trot lines significantly declined for wild pallid sturgeon (P=0.0001) but did not differ among years for hatchery-reared fish (P=0.0610). The proportion of reproductively ready females to non-reproductively ready females was 1:2.0, compared to the male ratio of 1:0.9. The minimum female length-at-maturity was 788 mm and 798 mm for males while the minimum age-at-maturity for known aged hatchery-reared fish was age-9 for females and age-7 for males. The mean relative fecundity was 7%. Our population viability model was most sensitive to ≥age-1 survival rates. Fluctuating female spawning frequency by one year had minimal effect on the overall population growth and age-at-maturity was less sensitive than spawning frequency. Catch per unit effort was 14.6 fish per trot line rigged with hook timers to study the catch dynamics; however, several hook timers were activated but did not capture a fish. Therefore, the corrected CPUE was 17.7 fish per line with over half of the hook timer activations occurring 4-h post-deployment. Detecting shifts in population characteristics is essential for understanding population dynamics as hatchery inputs and natural perturbations continue to change the population structure. Barring any unforeseen natural catastrophes, the pallid sturgeon population in the lower Missouri River is not in immediate danger of local extirpation; however, the population appears to be a far from viable nor self-sustaining. Advisor: Mark A. Peg

The Status of Fishes in the Missouri River, Nebraska: Lake Sturgeon \u3ci\u3e(Acipenser fulvescens)\u3c/i\u3e

Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) occurrences in the Missouri River along Nebraska’s eastern border are historically sporadic and rare. Presently, the wild Lake Sturgeon population in this river reach may be extirpated. A Recovery Program initiated by the Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC) has stocked almost 150,000 hatchery-reared Lake Sturgeon into the lower Missouri River at several sites in Missouri. As a result, the number of Lake Sturgeon collected has increased. Since monitoring began in 2003, no Lake Sturgeon have been collected above Gavins Point Dam while 40 fish were collected downstream of Gavins Point Dam. The majority of captures occurred in the lower channelized reach downstream of the confluence of the Platte and Missouri rivers. All fish collected are assumed to be progeny of MDC’s Recovery Program as either they were hatchery marked or their size (mean fork length = 764 mm, range = 602–997 mm) correlated with the expected growth rates. At present, their rarity warrants continued listing as a state threated species

The Status of Fishes in the Missouri River, Nebraska: Lake Sturgeon \u3ci\u3e(Acipenser fulvescens)\u3c/i\u3e

Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) occurrences in the Missouri River along Nebraska’s eastern border are historically sporadic and rare. Presently, the wild Lake Sturgeon population in this river reach may be extirpated. A Recovery Program initiated by the Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC) has stocked almost 150,000 hatchery-reared Lake Sturgeon into the lower Missouri River at several sites in Missouri. As a result, the number of Lake Sturgeon collected has increased. Since monitoring began in 2003, no Lake Sturgeon have been collected above Gavins Point Dam while 40 fish were collected downstream of Gavins Point Dam. The majority of captures occurred in the lower channelized reach downstream of the confluence of the Platte and Missouri rivers. All fish collected are assumed to be progeny of MDC’s Recovery Program as either they were hatchery marked or their size (mean fork length = 764 mm, range = 602–997 mm) correlated with the expected growth rates. At present, their rarity warrants continued listing as a state threated species

Heterogeneous detection probabilities for imperiled Missouri River fishes: implications for large-river monitoring programs

Occupancy modeling was used to determine (1) if detection probabilities (p) for 7 regionally imperiled Missouri River fishes (Scaphirhynchus albus, Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, Cycleptus elongatus, Sander canadensis, Macrhybopsis aestivalis, Macrhybopsis gelida, and Macrhybopsis meeki) differed among gear types (i.e. stationary gill nets, drifted trammel nets, and otter trawls), and (2) how detection probabilities were affected by habitat (i.e. pool, bar, and open water), longitudinal position (five 189 to 367 rkm long segments), sampling year (2003 to 2006), and season (July 1 to October 30 and October 31 to June 30). Adult, large-bodied fishes were best detected with gill nets (p: 0.02–0.74), but most juvenile large-bodied and all small-bodied species were best detected with otter trawls (p: 0.02–0.58). Trammel nets may be a redundant sampling gear for imperiled fishes in the lower Missouri River because most species had greater detection probabilities with gill nets or otter trawls. Detection probabilities varied with river segment for S. platorynchus, C. elongatus, and all small-bodied fishes, suggesting that changes in habitat influenced gear efficiency or abundance changes among river segments. Detection probabilities varied by habitat for adult S. albus and S. canadensis, year for juvenile S. albus, C. elongatus, and S. canadensis, and season for adult S. albus. Concentrating sampling effort on gears with the greatest detection probabilities may increase species detections to better monitor a population’s response to environmental change and the effects of management actions on large-river fishes

Emigration of hatchery‐reared Pallid Sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes and Richardson), through a Missouri River dam

The middle Missouri River (MMR; Fort Randall Dam, SD to Gavins Point Dam, NE‐SD) is stocked with hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes and Richardson), from upper Missouri River broodstock to aid recovery of this federally endangered species. Emigration of these fish through Gavins Point Dam restores genetic connectivity that likely existed pre‐impoundment but could lead to outbreeding depression in the future. Recapture data of hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon stocked in the MMR were evaluated to improve understanding of pallid sturgeon emigration. From 2004 to 2015, 219 emigrants were caught: 4 stocked at age ≥2 years and 215 stocked at age ≤1 year. Emigration of the 2001‐2007 year classes stocked at age 1 was a consistent phenomenon and appeared higher than emigration of year classes stocked at ages 2–3. Little evidence suggested emigration was associated with an unusually high‐water event in 2011. The annual emigration probability of individuals stocked at age 1 estimated from multi‐state mark–recapture models was 0.05 [95% confidence interval = 0.04–0.06] for fish ages ≥1 year. This study suggests that alterations to stocking practices (e.g. stocking age) may affect emigration rates and, therefore, connectivity among pallid sturgeon populations

Evidence of Limited Recruitment of Pallid Sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River

Pallid Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus are endemic to the Missouri and Mississippi river basins and are rare throughout their range. The species was listed as federally endangered with little to no evidence of natural recruitment. Since population augmentation was initiated as a recovery objective in the early 1990s, thousands of hatchery-origin Pallid Sturgeon have been stocked in the lower Missouri River (Gavins Point Dam [river kilometer 1,305.1] to the confluence of the Mississippi River [river kilometer 0.0]). Efforts to discriminate natural reproduction and recruitment of wild-origin Pallid Sturgeon from hatchery-origin fish has been hampered by tag loss in hatchery-origin sturgeon, inconsistent documentation of hatchery parental crosses, and the failure to collect tissue samples for genotyping all broodstock. However, the recent reconstruction of missing parental genotypes from known hatchery-origin progeny and from cryopreserved milt made it possible to examine Pallid Sturgeon recruitment. Therefore, our objectives were to 1) determine the likelihood that unmarked Pallid Sturgeon captured from the lower Missouri River were the result of natural recruitment and 2) examine the length distribution of wild- and hatchery-origin fish to determine if a difference exists by origin and examine the life-stage distribution. Genetic analysis showed that from 2003 to 2015, 358 ‘‘presumptive wild-origin’’ Pallid Sturgeon were captured in the lower Missouri River and the comparison between the length distributions of wild- and hatchery-origin fish did not provide any additional clarification into potential wildorigin fish. Low recruitment may be due to a small breeding population, high mortality of early life stages, hybridization with Shovelnose Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, or transport of drifting free embryos or larvae into inhospitable habitats. Determining what factors are limiting recruitment is the important next step for the recovery of Pallid Sturgeon in the lower Missouri River

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society

Adding 6 months of androgen deprivation therapy to postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of short-course versus no androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised controlled trial

Background Previous evidence indicates that adjuvant, short-course androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improves metastasis-free survival when given with primary radiotherapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the value of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy is unclear. Methods RADICALS-HD was an international randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of ADT used in combination with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to radiotherapy alone (no ADT) or radiotherapy with 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT), using monthly subcutaneous gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue injections, daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as distant metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. Standard survival analysis methods were used, accounting for randomisation stratification factors. The trial had 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 80% to 86% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·67). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047. Findings Between Nov 22, 2007, and June 29, 2015, 1480 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 61–69]) were randomly assigned to receive no ADT (n=737) or short-course ADT (n=743) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 121 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 9·0 years (IQR 7·1–10·1), metastasis-free survival events were reported for 268 participants (142 in the no ADT group and 126 in the short-course ADT group; HR 0·886 [95% CI 0·688–1·140], p=0·35). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 79·2% (95% CI 75·4–82·5) in the no ADT group and 80·4% (76·6–83·6) in the short-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 121 (17%) of 737 participants in the no ADT group and 100 (14%) of 743 in the short-course ADT group (p=0·15), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Metastatic disease is uncommon following postoperative bed radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adding 6 months of ADT to this radiotherapy did not improve metastasis-free survival compared with no ADT. These findings do not support the use of short-course ADT with postoperative radiotherapy in this patient population