Landslides in a changing climate

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A tool for the automatic calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence

Abstract Empirical rainfall thresholds are commonly used to forecast landslide occurrence in wide areas. Thresholds are affected by several uncertainties related to the rainfall and the landslide information accuracy, the reconstruction of the rainfall responsible for the failure, and the method to calculate the thresholds. This limits the use of the thresholds in landslide early warning systems. To face the problem, we developed a comprehensive tool, CTRL–T ( C alculation of T hresholds for R ainfall-induced L andslides− T ool) that automatically and objectively reconstructs rainfall events and the triggering conditions responsible for the failure, and calculates rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probabilities. CTRL−T uses a set of adjustable parameters to account for different morphological and climatic settings. We tested CTRL−T in Liguria region (Italy), which is highly prone to landslides. We expect CTRL−T has an impact on the definition of rainfall thresholds in Italy, and elsewhere, and on the reduction of the risk posed by rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

Abstract The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 rainfall events with – mostly shallow – landslides in Italy between January 1996 and February 2014. For each rainfall event with landslides, we reconstructed the rainfall history that presumably caused the slope failure, and we determined the corresponding rainfall duration D (in hours) and cumulated event rainfall E (in mm). Adopting a power law threshold model, we determined cumulated event rainfall–rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, at 5% exceedance probability, and their uncertainty. We defined a new national threshold for Italy, and 26 regional thresholds for environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, land-use, land cover, climate, and meteorology, and we used the thresholds to study the variations of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides in different environments, in Italy. We found that the national and the environmental thresholds cover a small part of the possible DE domain. The finding supports the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining thresholds for small geographical areas. We observed differences between some of the thresholds. With increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the thresholds become higher and steeper, indicating that more rainfall is needed to trigger landslides where the MAP is high than where it is low. This suggests that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the thresholds are higher for stronger rocks, and that forested areas require more rainfall than agricultural areas to initiate landslides. Finally, we observed that a 20% exceedance probability national threshold was capable of predicting all the rainfall-induced landslides with casualties between 1996 and 2014, and we suggest that this threshold can be used to forecast fatal rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. We expect the method proposed in this work to define and compare the thresholds to have an impact on the definition of new rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, and elsewhere

Disentangling cardiovascular control mechanisms during head-down tilt via joint transfer entropy and self-entropy decompositions

A full decomposition of the predictive entropy (PE) of the spontaneous variations of the heart period (HP) given systolic arterial pressure (SAP) and respiration (R) is proposed. The PE of HP is decomposed into the joint transfer entropy (JTE) from SAP and R to HP and self-entropy (SE) of HP. The SE is the sum of three terms quantifying the synergistic/redundant contributions of HP and SAP, when taken individually and jointly, to SE and one term conditioned on HP and SAP denoted as the conditional SE (CSE) of HP given SAP and R. The JTE from SAP and R to HP is the sum of two terms attributable to SAP or R plus an extra term describing the redundant/synergistic contribution to the JTE. All quantities were computed during cardiopulmonary loading induced by -25\uc2\ub0 head-down tilt (HDT) via a multivariate linear regression approach. We found that: (i) the PE of HP decreases during HDT; (ii) the decrease of PE is attributable to a lessening of SE of HP, while the JTE from SAP and R to HP remains constant; (iii) the SE of HP is dominant over the JTE from SAP and R to HP and the CSE of HP given SAP and R is prevailing over the SE of HP due to SAP and R both in supine position and during HDT; (iv) all terms of the decompositions of JTE from SAP and R to HP and SE of HP due to SAP and R were not affected by HDT; (v) the decrease of the SE of HP during HDT was attributed to the reduction of the CSE of HP given SAP and R; (vi) redundancy of SAP and R is prevailing over synergy in the information transferred into HP both in supine position and during HDT, while in the HP information storage synergy and redundancy are more balanced. The approach suggests that the larger complexity of the cardiac control during HDT is unrelated to the baroreflex control and cardiopulmonary reflexes and may be related to central commands and/or modifications of the dynamical properties of the sinus node

The Forgotten Role of Central Volume in Low Frequency Oscillations of Heart Rate Variability

The hypothesis that central volume plays a key role in the source of low frequency (LF) oscillations of heart rate variability (HRV) was tested in a population of end stage renal disease patients undergoing conventional hemodialysis (HD) treatment, and thus subject to large fluid shifts and sympathetic activation. Fluid overload (FO) in 58 chronic HD patients was assessed by whole body bioimpedance measurements before the midweek HD session. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) was measured using 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram recordings starting before the same HD treatment. Time domain and frequency domain analyses were performed on HRV signals. Patients were retrospectively classified in three groups according to tertiles of FO normalized to the extracellular water (FO/ECW%). These groups were also compared after stratification by diabetes mellitus. Patients with the low to medium hydration status before the treatment (i.e. 1st and 2nd FO/ECW% tertiles) showed a significant increase in LF power during last 30 min of HD compared to dialysis begin, while no significant change in LF power was seen in the third group (i.e. those with high pre-treatment hydration values). In conclusion, several mechanisms can generate LF oscillations in the cardiovascular system, including baroreflex feedback loops and central oscillators. However, the current results emphasize the role played by the central volume in determining the power of LF oscillations

Academy of Emergency Medicine and Care-Society of Clinical Biochemistry and Clinical Molecular Biology consensus recommendations for clinical use of sepsis biomarkers in the emergency department.

Increasing evidence is emerging that the measurement of circulating biomarkers may be clinically useful for diagnosing and monitoring sepsis. Eight members of AcEMC (Academy of Emergency Medicine and Care) and eight members of SIBioC (Italian Society of Clinical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine) were identified by the two scientific societies for producing a consensus document aimed to define practical recommendations about the use of biomarkers for diagnosing of sepsis and managing antibiotic therapy in the emergency department (ED). The cumulative opinions allowed defining three grade A recommendations (i.e., highly recommended indications), entailing ordering modality (biomarkers always available on prescription), practical use (results should be interpreted according to clinical information) and test ordering defined according to biomarker kinetics. Additional grade B recommendations (i.e., potentially valuable indications) entailed general agreement that biomarkers assessment may be of clinical value in the diagnostic approach of ED patients with suspected sepsis, suggestion for combined assessment of procalcitonin (PCT) and Creactive protein (CRP), free availability of the selected biomarker(s) on prescription, adoption of diagnostic threshold prioritizing high negative predictive value, preference for more analytically sensitive techniques, along with potential clinical usefulness of measuring PCT for monitoring antibiotic treatment, with serial testing defined according to biomarker kinetics. PCT and CRP were the two biomarkers that received the largest consensus as sepsis biomarkers (grade B recommendation), and a grade B recommendation was also reached for routine assessment of blood lactate. The assessment of biomarkers other than PCT and CRP was discouraged, with exception of presepsin for which substantial uncertainty in favor or against remained

Academy of Emergency Medicine and Care-Society of Clinical Biochemistry and Clinical Molecular Biology consensus recommendations for clinical use of sepsis biomarkers in the emergency department.

Increasing evidence is emerging that the measurement of circulating biomarkers may be clinically useful for diagnosing and monitoring sepsis. Eight members of AcEMC (Academy of Emergency Medicine and Care) and eight members of SIBioC (Italian Society of Clinical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine) were identified by the two scientific societies for producing a consensus document aimed to define practical recommendations about the use of biomarkers for diagnosing of sepsis and managing antibiotic therapy in the emergency department (ED). The cumulative opinions allowed defining three grade A recommendations (i.e., highly recommended indications), entailing ordering modality (biomarkers always available on prescription), practical use (results should be interpreted according to clinical information) and test ordering defined according to biomarker kinetics. Additional grade B recommendations (i.e., potentially valuable indications) entailed general agreement that biomarkers assessment may be of clinical value in the diagnostic approach of ED patients with suspected sepsis, suggestion for combined assessment of procalcitonin (PCT) and Creactive protein (CRP), free availability of the selected biomarker(s) on prescription, adoption of diagnostic threshold prioritizing high negative predictive value, preference for more analytically sensitive techniques, along with potential clinical usefulness of measuring PCT for monitoring antibiotic treatment, with serial testing defined according to biomarker kinetics. PCT and CRP were the two biomarkers that received the largest consensus as sepsis biomarkers (grade B recommendation), and a grade B recommendation was also reached for routine assessment of blood lactate. The assessment of biomarkers other than PCT and CRP was discouraged, with exception of presepsin for which substantial uncertainty in favor or against remained

Anaesthesiological strategies in elective craniotomy: randomized, equivalence, open trial – The NeuroMorfeo trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many studies have attempted to determine the <it>"best" </it>anaesthetic technique for neurosurgical procedures in patients without intracranial hypertension. So far, no study comparing intravenous (IA) with volatile-based neuroanaesthesia (VA) has been able to demonstrate major outcome differences nor a superiority of one of the two strategies in patients undergoing elective supratentorial neurosurgery. Therefore, current practice varies and includes the use of either volatile or intravenous anaesthetics in addition to narcotics. Actually the choice of the anaestesiological strategy depends only on the anaesthetists' preferences or institutional policies.</p> <p>This trial, named NeuroMorfeo, aims to assess the equivalence between volatile and intravenous anaesthetics for neurosurgical procedures.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>NeuroMorfeo is a multicenter, randomized, open label, controlled trial, based on an equivalence design. Patients aged between 18 and 75 years, scheduled for elective craniotomy for supratentorial lesion without signs of intracranial hypertension, in good physical state (ASA I-III) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) equal to 15, are randomly assigned to one of three anaesthesiological strategies (two VA arms, sevoflurane + fentanyl or sevoflurane + remifentanil, and one IA, propofol + remifentanil). The equivalence between intravenous and volatile-based neuroanaesthesia will be evaluated by comparing the intervals required to reach, after anaesthesia discontinuation, a modified Aldrete score ≥ 9 (primary end-point). Two statistical comparisons have been planned:</p> <p>1) sevoflurane + fentanyl vs. propofol + remifentanil;</p> <p>2) sevoflurane + remifentanil vs. propofol + remifentanil.</p> <p>Secondary end-points include: an assessment of neurovegetative stress based on (a) measurement of urinary catecholamines and plasma and urinary cortisol and (b) estimate of sympathetic/parasympathetic balance by power spectrum analyses of electrocardiographic tracings recorded during anaesthesia; intraoperative adverse events; evaluation of surgical field; postoperative adverse events; patient's satisfaction and analysis of costs.</p> <p>411 patients will be recruited in 14 Italian centers during an 18-month period.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We presented the development phase of this anaesthesiological on-going trial. The recruitment started December 4^th, 2007 and up to 4^th, December 2008, 314 patients have been enrolled.</p