Quantitative modeling of tumor dynamics and development of drug resistance in non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with erlotinib

Insight into the development of treatment resistance can support the optimization of anticancer treatments. This study aims to characterize the tumor dynamics and development of drug resistance in patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with erlotinib, and investigate the relationship between baseline circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) data and tumor dynamics. Data obtained for the analysis included (1) intensively sampled erlotinib concentrations from 29 patients from two previous pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, and (2) tumor sizes, ctDNA measurements, and sparsely sampled erlotinib concentrations from 18 patients from the START-TKI study. A two-compartment population PK model was first developed which well-described the PK data. The PK model was subsequently applied to investigate the exposure-tumor dynamics relationship. To characterize the tumor dynamics, models accounting for intra-tumor heterogeneity and acquired resistance with or without primary resistance were investigated. Eventually, the model assumed acquired resistance only resulted in an adequate fit. Additionally, models with or without exposure-dependent treatment effect were explored, and no significant exposure-response relationship for erlotinib was identified within the observed exposure range. Subsequently, the correlation of baseline ctDNA data on EGFR and TP53 variants with tumor dynamics’ parameters was explored. The analysis indicated that higher baseline plasma EGFR mutation levels correlated with increased tumor growth rates, and the inclusion of ctDNA measurements improved model fit. This result suggests that quantitative ctDNA measurements at baseline have the potential to be a predictor of anticancer treatment response. The developed model can potentially be applied to design optimal treatment regimens that better overcome resistance.</p

Exploring the impact of patient-specific clinical features on osimertinib effectiveness in a real-world cohort of patients with EGFR mutated non-small cell lung cancer

Osimertinib is prescribed to patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and a sensitizing EGFR mutation. Limited data exists on the impact of patient characteristics or osimertinib exposure on effectiveness outcomes. This was a Dutch, multicenter cohort study. Eligible patients were ≥18 years, with metastatic EGFRm+ NSCLC, receiving osimertinib. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS) and safety. Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were performed. In total, 294 patients were included. Primary EGFR-mutations were mainly exon 19 deletions (54%) and p.L858R point mutations (30%). Osimertinib was given in first-line (40%), second-line (46%) or beyond (14%), with median PFS 14.4 (95% CI: 9.4-19.3), 13.9 (95% CI: 11.3-16.1) and 8.7 months (95% CI: 4.6-12.7), respectively. Patients with low BMI (&lt;20.0 kg/m2) had significantly shorter PFS/OS compared to all other subgroups. Patients with a high plasma trough concentration in steady state (Cmin,SS; &gt;271 ng/mL) had shorter PFS compared to a low Cmin,SS (&lt;163 ng/mL; aHR 2.29; 95% CI: 1.13-4.63). A significant longer PFS was seen in females (aHR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.45-0.82) and patients with the exon 19 deletion (aHR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.36-0.92). A trend towards longer PFS was seen for TP53 wild-type patients, while age did not impact PFS. Patients with a primary EGFR exon 19 deletion had longer PFS, while a low BMI, male sex and a high Cmin,SS were indicative for shorter PFS and/or OS. Age was not associated with effectiveness outcomes of osimertinib.</p

Exploring the impact of patient-specific clinical features on osimertinib effectiveness in a real-world cohort of patients with EGFR mutated non-small cell lung cancer

Osimertinib is prescribed to patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and a sensitizing EGFR mutation. Limited data exists on the impact of patient characteristics or osimertinib exposure on effectiveness outcomes. This was a Dutch, multicenter cohort study. Eligible patients were ≥18 years, with metastatic EGFRm+ NSCLC, receiving osimertinib. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS) and safety. Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were performed. In total, 294 patients were included. Primary EGFR-mutations were mainly exon 19 deletions (54%) and p.L858R point mutations (30%). Osimertinib was given in first-line (40%), second-line (46%) or beyond (14%), with median PFS 14.4 (95% CI: 9.4-19.3), 13.9 (95% CI: 11.3-16.1) and 8.7 months (95% CI: 4.6-12.7), respectively. Patients with low BMI (271 ng/mL) had shorter PFS compared to a low Cmin,SS (<163 ng/mL; aHR 2.29; 95% CI: 1.13-4.63). A significant longer PFS was seen in females (aHR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.45-0.82) and patients with the exon 19 deletion (aHR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.36-0.92). A trend towards longer PFS was seen for TP53 wild-type patients, while age did not impact PFS. Patients with a primary EGFR exon 19 deletion had longer PFS, while a low BMI, male sex and a high Cmin,SS were indicative for shorter PFS and/or OS. Age was not associated with effectiveness outcomes of osimertinib

Quantitative modeling of tumor dynamics and development of drug resistance in non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with erlotinib

Insight into the development of treatment resistance can support the optimization of anticancer treatments. This study aims to characterize the tumor dynamics and development of drug resistance in patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with erlotinib, and investigate the relationship between baseline circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) data and tumor dynamics. Data obtained for the analysis included (1) intensively sampled erlotinib concentrations from 29 patients from two previous pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, and (2) tumor sizes, ctDNA measurements, and sparsely sampled erlotinib concentrations from 18 patients from the START-TKI study. A two-compartment population PK model was first developed which well-described the PK data. The PK model was subsequently applied to investigate the exposure-tumor dynamics relationship. To characterize the tumor dynamics, models accounting for intra-tumor heterogeneity and acquired resistance with or without primary resistance were investigated. Eventually, the model assumed acquired resistance only resulted in an adequate fit. Additionally, models with or without exposure-dependent treatment effect were explored, and no significant exposure-response relationship for erlotinib was identified within the observed exposure range. Subsequently, the correlation of baseline ctDNA data on EGFR and TP53 variants with tumor dynamics’ parameters was explored. The analysis indicated that higher baseline plasma EGFR mutation levels correlated with increased tumor growth rates, and the inclusion of ctDNA measurements improved model fit. This result suggests that quantitative ctDNA measurements at baseline have the potential to be a predictor of anticancer treatment response. The developed model can potentially be applied to design optimal treatment regimens that better overcome resistance.</p

Osimertinib Plasma Trough Concentration in Relation to Brain Metastases Development in Patients With Advanced EGFR-Mutated NSCLC

Introduction: Brain metastases (BM) are common in patients with advanced EGFR-mutated (EGFRm+) NSCLC. Despite good BM-related outcomes of osimertinib, several patients still experience intracranial progression. A possible explanation is pharmacologic failure due to low plasma trough levels (Cmin,SS) and consequently limited intracranial osimertinib exposure. We investigated the relation between osimertinib Cmin,SS and BM development or progression. Methods: A prospective multicenter cohort study, including patients receiving osimertinib for advanced EGFRm+ NSCLC. At osimertinib start, patients were allocated to the BM or no or unknown BM cohort and were further divided into subgroups based on osimertinib Cmin,SS (low, middle, and high exposure). Cumulative incidence of BM progression or development and overall survival were determined for each group. Results: A total of 173 patients were included, with 49 (28.3%) had baseline BM. Of these patients, 36.7% experienced BM progression, of which 16.7% in the low (&lt;159.3 ng/mL), 40.0% in the middle, and 47.1% in the high (&gt;270.7 ng/mL) Cmin,SS subgroups. After 12 months, the cumulative incidence of BM progression for the BM cohort was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6–49.0), 31% (95% CI:10.6–53.9), and 31% (95% CI:10.8–54.5) per Cmin,SS subgroup, respectively. After 20 months, this was 20% (95% CI:2.6–49.0), 52% (95% CI:23.8–74.2), and 57% (95% CI:24.9–79.7), respectively. For the no or unknown BM cohort, 4.0% developed BM without differences within Cmin,SS subgroups. Conclusions: No relation was found between osimertinib Cmin,SS and BM development or progression in patients with advanced EGFRm+ NSCLC. This suggests that systemic osimertinib exposure is not a surrogate marker for BM development or progression.</p

Improving the tolerability of osimertinib by identifying its toxic limit

Background: Osimertinib is the cornerstone in the treatment of epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Nonetheless, ±25% of patients experience severe treatment-related toxicities. Currently, it is impossible to identify patients at risk of severe toxicity beforehand. Therefore, we aimed to study the relationship between osimertinib exposure and severe toxicity and to identify a safe toxic limit for a preventive dose reduction. Methods: In this real-life prospective cohort study, patients with NSCLC treated with osimertinib were followed for severe toxicity (grade ⩾3 toxicity, dose reduction or discontinuation, hospital admission, or treatment termination). Blood for pharmacokinetic analyses was withdrawn during every out-patient visit. Primary endpoint was the correlation between osimertinib clearance (exposure) and severe toxicity. Secondary endpoint was the exposure–efficacy relationship, defined as progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: In total, 819 samples from 159 patients were included in the analysis. Multivariate competing risk analysis showed osimertinib clearance (c.q. exposure) to be significantly correlated with severe toxicity (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88–0.99). An relative operating characteristic curve showed the optimal toxic limit to be 259 ng/mL osimertinib. A 50% dose reduction in the high-exposure group, that is 25.8% of the total cohort, would reduce the risk of severe toxicity by 53%. Osimertinib exposure was not associated with PFS nor OS. Conclusion: Osimertinib exposure is highly correlated with the occurrence of severe toxicity. To optimize tolerability, patients above the toxic limit concentration of 259 ng/mL could benefit from a preventive dose reduction, without fear for diminished effectiveness

Comparison of variant allele frequency and number of mutant molecules as units of measurement for circulating tumor DNA

Quantification of tumor‐specific variants (TSVs) in cell‐free DNA is rapidly evolving as a prognostic and predictive tool in patients with cancer. Currently, both variant allele frequency (VAF) and number of mutant molecules per mL plasma are used as units of measurement to report those TSVs. However, it is unknown to what extent both units of measurement agree and what are the factors underlying an existing disagreement. To study the agreement between VAF and mutant molecules in current clinical studies, we analyzed 1116 TSVs from 338 patients identified with next‐generation sequencing (NGS) or digital droplet PCR (ddPCR). On different study cohorts, a Deming regression analysis was performed and its 95% prediction interval was used as surrogate for the limits of agreement between VAF and number of mutant molecules per mL and to identify outliers. VAF and number of mutant molecules per mL plasma yielded greater agreement when using ddPCR than NGS. In case of discordance between VAF and number of mutant molecules per mL, insufficient molecular coverage in NGS and high cell‐free DNA concentration were the main responsible factors. We propose several optimization steps needed to bring monitoring of TSVs in cell‐free DNA to its full potential

Comparison of variant allele frequency and number of mutant molecules as units of measurement for circulating tumor DNA

Quantification of tumor‐specific variants (TSVs) in cell‐free DNA is rapidly evolving as a prognostic and predictive tool in patients with cancer. Currently, both variant allele frequency (VAF) and number of mutant molecules per mL plasma are used as units of measurement to report those TSVs. However, it is unknown to what extent both units of measurement agree and what are the factors underlying an existing disagreement. To study the agreement between VAF and mutant molecules in current clinical studies, we analyzed 1116 TSVs from 338 patients identified with next‐generation sequencing (NGS) or digital droplet PCR (ddPCR). On different study cohorts, a Deming regression analysis was performed and its 95% prediction interval was used as surrogate for the limits of agreement between VAF and number of mutant molecules per mL and to identify outliers. VAF and number of mutant molecules per mL plasma yielded greater agreement when using ddPCR than NGS. In case of discordance between VAF and number of mutant molecules per mL, insufficient molecular coverage in NGS and high cell‐free DNA concentration were the main responsible factors. We propose several optimization steps needed to bring monitoring of TSVs in cell‐free DNA to its full potential