What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence.

This study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the appropriate measurement of overconfidence, in particular, its strictly incentive compatible measurement in experiments. Despite a number of significant advances in recent research, several important issues remain to be solved. These relate to the strictness of incentive compatibility, the identification of well-calibrated participants, the trichotomous classification into over- or underconfident and well-calibrated participants, and the generalization to measuring beliefs about the performance relative to other people. This paper develops a measurement of overconfidence that is improved regarding all four of these issues. We theoretically prove that our method is strictly incentive compatible and robust to risk attitudes within the framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory. Furthermore, our method allows the measurement of various levels of overconfidence and the direct comparison of absolute and relative confidence. We tested our method, and the results meet our expectations, replicate recent results, and show that a population can be simultaneously overconfident, well-calibrated, and underconfident. In our specific case, we find that more than ninety-five percent of the population believe to be better than twenty-five percent; about fifty percent believe to be better than fifty percent; and only seven percent believe to be better than seventy-five percent.Belief elicitation, Overconfidence, Better than average, Incentive compatibility

Essays on Behavior under Risk and Uncertainty

This thesis consists of four experimental studies that investigate human behavior under risk and uncertainty in different settings. While the first two studies deal with individual risky decision-making, the third and fourth study are concerned with strategic interaction. In the first paper, we show that individuals hold systematically wrong beliefs about their success probabilities in a given task. Nonetheless, we find that the average belief on the population level is quite accurate. In the second paper, we show that a number of individuals change their risk-taking behavior if their decisions additionally affect a second, passive party, and that they are influenced by the decisions of others, whereas standard theory predicts that none of these factors should have any effect. In the strategic setting in the third paper, we find that standard theory predicts actual behavior in the experiment fairly well; yet, we find that a substantial number of subjects repeatedly chooses strategies that should never be chosen according to standard theory. Finally, in the fourth study, we show that accounting for preferences for efficiency allows for a better organization of our data than standard theory alone

The Effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy on Management of Symptoms in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

Objectives: To carry out a systematic review of literature examining the effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) alongside pharmacological treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) symptoms compared to pharmacological treatments (standard care) without CBT. Methods: The Iowa Model of Evidence-Based Practice to Promote Quality Care was used as the theoretical framework for this review of literature. Databases utilized: CINAHL, OneSearch, PubMed, and MedLine. The inclusion criteria for this search were: CBT as an intervention, articles published within 2006-2016, and English full text articles. Exclusion criteria were: participants less than 18 years of age, interventions other than CBT, or any other type of arthritis that was not RA. Out of 96 articles found, 10 were included in this review of literature. Results: Out of the 10 articles chosen for this review, included were: 51 randomized controlled trials, 31 studies, 47 transcripts, and 5,345 participants. In seven articles pain and depression symptoms showed improvement with CBT; six articles showed fatigue and physical activity improved. However, only one demonstrated evidence that CBT improved anxiety symptoms. Conclusion: This review of literature focused on how CBT in combination with standard care for RA (pharmacological therapy) would affect symptom management. Evidence suggests that CBT is an effective treatment intervention alongside pharmacological therapy on management of symptoms in RA. Research evaluating the long-term effects, overall quality of life, and maintenance therapy related to CBT should be explored further

Affordability of essential medicines: The case of fluoride toothpaste in 78 countries

Contains fulltext : 285323.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access

The 0nbb-decay nuclear matrix elements with self-consistent short-range correlations

A self-consistent calculation of nuclear matrix elements of the neutrinoless double beta decays (0nbb) of 76Ge, 82Se, 96Zr, 100Mo, 116Cd, 128Te, 130Te and 130Xe is presented in the framework of the renormalized quasiparticle random phase approximation (RQRPA) and the standard QRPA. The pairing and residual interactions as well as the two-nucleon short-range correlations are for the first time derived from the same modern realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials, namely from charge-dependent Bonn potential (CD-Bonn) and the Argonne V18 potential. In a comparison with the traditional approach of using the Miller-Spencer Jastrow correlations matrix elements for the 0nbb-decay are obtained, which are larger in magnitude. We analyze the differences among various two-nucleon correlations including those of the unitary correlation operator method (UCOM) and quantify the uncertainties in the calculated 0nbb-decay matrix elements.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Shock Location Dominated Transonic Flight Loads on the Active Aeroelastic Wing

During several Active Aeroelastic Wing research flights, the shadow of the over-wing shock could be observed because of natural lighting conditions. As the plane accelerated, the shock location moved aft, and as the shadow passed the aileron and trailing-edge flap hinge lines, their associated hinge moments were substantially affected. The observation of the dominant effect of shock location on aft control surface hinge moments led to this investigation. This report investigates the effect of over-wing shock location on wing loads through flight-measured data and analytical predictions. Wing-root and wing-fold bending moment and torque and leading- and trailing-edge hinge moments have been measured in flight using calibrated strain gages. These same loads have been predicted using a computational fluid dynamics code called the Euler Navier-Stokes Three Dimensional Aeroelastic Code. The computational fluid dynamics study was based on the elastically deformed shape estimated by a twist model, which in turn was derived from in-flight-measured wing deflections provided by a flight deflection measurement system. During level transonic flight, the shock location dominated the wing trailing-edge control surface hinge moments. The computational fluid dynamics analysis based on the shape provided by the flight deflection measurement system produced very similar results and substantially correlated with the measured loads data