The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.</p> <p>The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.</p

The distribution and transitions of physicians in Japan: a 1974–2004 retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Japan, physicians freely choose their specialty and workplace, because to date there is no management system to ensure a balanced distribution of physicians. Physicians in Japan start their careers in hospitals, then become specialists, and then gradually leave hospitals to work in private clinics and take on primary care roles in their specialty fields. The present study aimed to analyse national trends in the distribution and career transitions of physicians among types of facilities and specialties over a 30-year period.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained an electronic file containing physician registration data from the Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists. Descriptive statistics and data on movement between facilities (hospitals and clinics) for all physicians from 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004 were analysed. Descriptive statistics for the groups of physicians who graduated in 1970, 1980 and 1990 were also analysed, and we examined these groups over time to evaluate their changes of occupation and specialty.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The number of physicians per 100 000 population was 113 in 1974, and rose to 212 by 2004. The number of physicians working in hospitals increased more than threefold. In Japan, while almost all physicians choose hospital-based positions at the beginning of their career, around 20% of physicians withdrew from hospitals within 10 years, and this trend of leaving hospitals was similar among generations. Physicians who graduated in 1980 and registered in general surgery, cardiovascular surgery or paediatric surgery were 10 times more likely to change their specialty, compared with those who registered in internal medicine. More than half of the physicians who registered in 1970 had changed their specialties within a period of 30 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The government should focus primarily on changing the physician fee schedule, with careful consideration of the balance between office-based physicians and hospital-based physicians and among specialties. To implement effective policies in managing health care human resources, policy-makers should also pay attention to continuously monitoring physicians' practising status and career motivations; and national consensus is needed regarding the number of physicians required in each type of facility and specialty as well as region.</p

Mothers and daughters-in-law: a prospective study of informal care-giving arrangements and survival in Japan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Daughters-in-law have played an important role in informal care-giving arrangements within East Asian traditional norms. The aim of this study was to measure the impact of daughter-in-law care-giving on the survival of care recipients. We prospectively examined the associations between different types of kinship relationship between the main family caregiver and the care recipient in relation to survival among care recipients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A questionnaire was administered to Japanese community-dwelling seniors who were eligible to receive national long-term care insurance (LTCI) community-based services. Among 191 individuals whose informal care-giving arrangement was definitively determined, we observed 58 care recipients receiving care from spouses, 58 from daughters-in-law, 27 from biological daughters, 25 from other relatives, and 23 care recipients living alone.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During 51 months of follow-up from December 2001, 68 care recipients died, 117 survived, and 6 moved. Hazard ratios of each care-giving arrangement were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for care recipients' demographic factors, their care needs level based on their physical and cognitive functioning and their service use, caregivers' demographic factors, and household size. The highest risk of mortality was found for female elders receiving care from daughters-in-law (HR 4.15, 95% CI 1.02-16.90) followed by those receiving care from biological daughters (HR 1.64, 95% CI 0.37-7.21), compared to women receiving spousal care. By contrast, male elders receiving care from daughters-in-law tended to live longer than those receiving care from their spouses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our finding suggests that there may be a survival "penalty" for older Japanese women who are cared for by their daughters-in-law.</p