Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: the case of carbon constrained China

China’s energy sector is under pressure to achieve secure and affordable supply and a clear decarbonisation path. We examine the longitudinal trajectory of the Chinese electricity supply security and model the near future supply security based on the 12th 5 year plan. Our deterministic approach combines Shannon-Wiener, Herfindahl-Hirschman and electricity import dependence indices for supply security appraisal. We find that electricity portfolio innovation allows China to provide secure energy supply despite increasing import dependence. It is argued that long-term aggressive deployment of renewable energy will unblock China’s coal-biased technological lock-in and increase supply security in all fronts. However, reduced supply diversity in China during the 1990s will not recover until after 2020s due to the long-term coal lock-in that can threaten to hold China’s back from realising its full potential

Estimation of HIV-1 incidence among five focal populations in Dehong, Yunnan: a hard hit area along a major drug trafficking route

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 1989 when the first 146 HIV positives in China were identified, Dehong Prefecture had been one of the areas hardest-hit by HIV in China. The local and national governments have put substantial financial resources into tackling the HIV epidemic in Dehong from 2004. The objective of this study was to track dynamic changes in HIV-1 prevalence and incidence among five focal populations in Dehong and to assess the impact of HIV prevention and control efforts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Consecutive cross-sectional surveys conducted in five focal populations between 2004 and 2008. Specimens seropositive for HIV were tested with the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay to identify recent seroconversions (median, 155 days) using normalized optical density of 0.8 and adjustments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2004 to 2008, estimated annual HIV incidence among injecting drug users (IDUs) decreased significantly [from 15.0% (95% CI = 11.4%-18.5%) in 2004 to 4.3% (95% CI = 2.4%-6.2%) in 2008; trend test P < 0.0001]. The incidence among other focal populations, such as HIV discordant couples (varying from 5.5% to 4.7%), female sex workers (varying from 1.4% to 1.3%), pregnant women (0.1%), and pre-marital couples (0.2 to 0.1%) remained stable. Overall, the proportion of recent HIV-1 infections was higher among females than males (P < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Dehong continued to expand during a five-year period but at a slowing rate among IDUs, and HIV incidence remains high among IDUs and discordant couples. Intensive prevention measures should target sub-groups at highest risk to further slow the epidemic and control the migration of HIV to other areas of China, and multivariate analysis is needed to explore which measures are more effective for different populations.</p

Mobility, risk behavior and HIV/STI rates among female sex workers in Kaiyuan City, Yunnan Province, China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The mobility of female sex workers (FSWs) is a factor in the geographic spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This study describes FSW mobility patterns in a high risk area of China to identify factors associated with increased mobility, and to study the incidence and prevalence of HIV/STIs in this group.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>270 FSWs recruited from a baseline cross-sectional study were invited to participate in a one-year monthly follow-up cohort study in Kaiyuan City, Yunnan Province, China from 2006 to 2007. Laboratory tests were conducted for HIV/STIs at baseline, 6 and 12 months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 117 (43.3%) FSWs moved to another city during the year. Risk factors for increased mobility included being from another city within Yunnan (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-2.56), being from outside Yunnan (AHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04-2.54), and working in lower risk entertainment establishments (AHR 1.55, 95% CI 1.03-2.35). HIV-positive subjects, drug users and FSWs in higher risk venue were less likely to change residence, less likely to use condoms with clients, and earned less per client, but had more working locations and more clients each month.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The least mobile FSWs were from Kaiyuan, worked in higher risk venues, were more likely to use drugs and be HIV-infected. Because FSWs characteristics differ according to the venue at which they work, future prevention work should tailor programs according to venue with a particular focus on FSWs in higher risk venues.</p

Multiple sex partner behavior in female undergraduate students in China: A multi-campus survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>China is realizing increases in women engaged in premarital sex and multiple sex partner behavior. Our aim was to examine prevalence and determinants of multiple sex partner behavior among female undergraduates in China.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Anonymously completed questionnaires were received from 4,769 unmarried female undergraduates, recruited using randomized cluster sampling by type of university and students' major and grade. Items captured demographic, family, peer and work influence, and student factors (major, academic performance, and sex-related knowledge and attitudes). To examine risk factors for sexual behaviors, we used multi-level logistic regression, yielding odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 4,769 female students, 863 (18.10%) reported ever having sexual intercourse, and 5.31% reported having multiple sex partners (29.32% of all women having sexual intercourse). Several demographic, family, peer and work influences, and student factors (including major, performance, knowledge, and attitude toward sex) were risk factors for ever having sex. However, risk factors for multiple sex partners only included working in a place of entertainment, having current close friends that were living with boyfriends, poor academic performance, and positive attitudes toward multiple partners. These women also were more likely to practice masturbation, start having sex at a younger age, have sex with married men and/or men not their "boyfriends" at first coitus, and not use condoms consistently.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A small but important subset of Chinese female undergraduates is engaged in unprotected sex with multiple sex partners. Interventions need to target at risk women, stressing the importance of consistent condom use.</p

Modeling the Total Allowable Area for Coastal Reclamation : a case study of Xiamen, China

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ocean & Coastal Management 76 (2013):38-44, doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.02.015.This paper presents an analytical framework to estimate the Total Allowable Area for Coastal Reclamation (TAACR) to provide scientific support for the implementation of a coastal reclamation restriction mechanism. The logic of the framework is to maximize the net benefits of coastal reclamation subject to a set of constraints. Various benefits and costs, including the ecological and environmental costs of coastal reclamation, are systematically quantified in the framework. Model simulations are developed using data from Tongan Bay of Xiamen. The results suggest that the TAACR in Tongan Bay is 5.67 km2, and the area of the Bay should be maintained at least at 87.52 km2.The study was funded by the National Oceanic Public Welfare Projects (No. 201105006) and the Fujian Natural Science Foundation (No. 2010J01360