One-Dimensional Directed Sandpile Models and the Area under a Brownian Curve

We derive the steady state properties of a general directed ``sandpile'' model in one dimension. Using a central limit theorem for dependent random variables we find the precise conditions for the model to belong to the universality class of the Totally Asymmetric Oslo model, thereby identifying a large universality class of directed sandpiles. We map the avalanche size to the area under a Brownian curve with an absorbing boundary at the origin, motivating us to solve this Brownian curve problem. Thus, we are able to determine the moment generating function for the avalanche-size probability in this universality class, explicitly calculating amplitudes of the leading order terms.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figure

How network-based and set-based visualizations aid consistency checking in ontologies

© 2017 ACM. Ontologies describe complex world knowledge in that they consist of hierarchical relations, such as is-a, which can be expressed by quantifiers or sets, and various binary relations, which can be expressed by links or networks. Should hierarchical relations be distinguished from other binary relations as essentially different ones in building cognitively accessible systems of ontologies? In this study, two kinds of ontology visualizations, a network-based visualization (SOVA) and a set-based visualization (concept diagrams), are empirically compared in the case of consistency checking. Participants were presented with one diagram and then asked to answer the question of whether the meaning of the diagram was contradictory. Our results showed that SOVA is more effective than concept diagrams, suggesting that to represent hierarchical and binary relations of ontologies in a way based on networks suits human cognition when checking ontologies' consistencies

14-06 Development of Safety Performance Functions and Other Decision Support Tools to Assess Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety

A field study was performed at 40 uncontrolled midblock crosswalks and 26 signalized intersections on low-speed roadways selected from the areas surrounding three major urban college campuses across lower Michigan. An array of existing traffic control devices existed at the study sites, including various crosswalk marking strategies, along with additional treatments, such as pedestrian hybrid beacons (PHBs), rectangular rapid-flashing beacons (RRFBs) and single in-street R1-6 signs. The sites also collectively included a diverse set of roadway and traffic characteristics, including crossing widths, number of lanes, and median presence, along with vehicular, pedestrian, and bicyclist volumes. Three primary evaluations were performed for the midblock segments and signalized intersection study sites, including: driver yielding compliance, vehicle-pedestrian conflicts, and non-motorized traffic crash data. The yielding compliance study found that the type of crosswalk treatment has a strong influence over driver yielding compliance. While yielding compliance improves substantially when crosswalk markings are utilized, the highest compliance rates are achieved when an additional enhancement device (i.e., RRFB, PHB, or R1-6 sign), is also provided. To supplement small crash sample sizes at the study sites, Michigan statewide pedestrian and bicyclist crash data were collected and utilized to develop safety performance functions (SPFs) and other methods for predicting pedestrian and bicyclist crashes at road segments and intersections. Because pedestrian and bicyclist volumes were not available statewide, each model was developed for pedestrian and bicycle crashes based solely on vehicular AADT. In general, the models showed that pedestrian and bicycle crashes tend to increase with increasing traffic volumes. However, even in the highest volume cases, only a fraction of crashes involved a pedestrian or bicyclist. Pedestrian and bicycle crashes were further estimated based on the respective proportion of the Michigan specific SPF models for total crashes. The primary limitation towards prediction of pedestrian and bicycle crashes is the lack of a reliable exposure data to represent the amount of pedestrian or bicyclist activity on a given segment or intersection

Historical roots of Agile methods: where did “Agile thinking” come from?

The appearance of Agile methods has been the most noticeable change to software process thinking in the last fifteen years [16], but in fact many of the “Agile ideas” have been around since 70’s or even before. Many studies and reviews have been conducted about Agile methods which ascribe their emergence as a reaction against traditional methods. In this paper, we argue that although Agile methods are new as a whole, they have strong roots in the history of software engineering. In addition to the iterative and incremental approaches that have been in use since 1957 [21], people who criticised the traditional methods suggested alternative approaches which were actually Agile ideas such as the response to change, customer involvement, and working software over documentation. The authors of this paper believe that education about the history of Agile thinking will help to develop better understanding as well as promoting the use of Agile methods. We therefore present and discuss the reasons behind the development and introduction of Agile methods, as a reaction to traditional methods, as a result of people's experience, and in particular focusing on reusing ideas from histor

Instrumental methods and challenges in quantifying polybrominated diphenyl ethers in environmental extracts: a review

Increased interest in the fate, transport and toxicity of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) over the past few years has led to a variety of studies reporting different methods of analysis for these persistent organic pollutants. Because PBDEs encompass a range of vapor pressures, molecular weights and degrees of bromine substitution, various analytical methods can lead to discrimination of some PBDE congeners. Recent improvements in injection techniques and mass spectrometer ionization methods have led to a variety of options to determine PBDEs in environmental samples. The purpose of this paper is therefore to review the available literature describing the advantages and disadvantages in choosing an injection technique, gas chromatography column and detector. Additional discussion is given to the challenges in measuring PBDEs, including potential chromatographic interferences and the lack of commercial standards for higher brominated congeners, which provides difficulties in examining degradation and debromination of BDE congeners, particularly for BDE 209

Submaximal Angioplasty for Symptomatic Intracranial Atherosclerotic Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Peri-Procedural and Long-Term Risk

© 2019 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons. BACKGROUND: Symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD) is an important cause of stroke. Although the high periprocedural risk of intracranial stenting from recent randomized studies has dampened enthusiasm for such interventions, submaximal angioplasty without stenting may represent a safer endovascular treatment option. OBJECTIVE: To examine the periprocedural and long-term risks associated with submaximal angioplasty for ICAD based on the available literature. METHODS: All English language studies of intracranial angioplasty for ICAD were screened. Inclusion criteria were as follows: ≥ 5 patients, intervention with submaximal angioplasty alone, and identifiable periprocedural (30-d) outcomes. Analysis was co-nducted to identify the following: 1) periprocedural risk of any stroke (ischemic or hemorrh-agic) or death, and 2) stroke in the territory of the target vessel and fatal stroke beyond 30 d. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to summarize event rates. Funnel plot and rank correlation tests were employed to detect publication bias. The relative risk of periprocedural events from anterior vs posterior circulation disease intervention was also examined. RESULTS: A total of 9 studies with 408 interventions in 395 patients met inclusion criteria. Six of these studies included 113 posterior circulation interventions. The estimated pooled rate for 30-d stroke or death following submaximal angioplasty was 4.9% (95% CI: 3.2%-7.5%), whereas the estimated pooled rate beyond 30 d was 3.7% (95% CI: 2.2%-6.0%). There was no statistical difference in estimated pooled rate for 30-d stroke or death between patients with anterior (4.8%, 95% CI: 2.8%-7.9%) vs posterior (5.3%, 95% CI: 2.4%-11.3%) circulation disease (P \u3e. 99). CONCLUSION: Submaximal angioplasty represents a potentially promising intervention for symptomatic ICAD

Predicting phase equilibria in polydisperse systems

Many materials containing colloids or polymers are polydisperse: They comprise particles with properties (such as particle diameter, charge, or polymer chain length) that depend continuously on one or several parameters. This review focusses on the theoretical prediction of phase equilibria in polydisperse systems; the presence of an effectively infinite number of distinguishable particle species makes this a highly nontrivial task. I first describe qualitatively some of the novel features of polydisperse phase behaviour, and outline a theoretical framework within which they can be explored. Current techniques for predicting polydisperse phase equilibria are then reviewed. I also discuss applications to some simple model systems including homopolymers and random copolymers, spherical colloids and colloid-polymer mixtures, and liquid crystals formed from rod- and plate-like colloidal particles; the results surveyed give an idea of the rich phenomenology of polydisperse phase behaviour. Extensions to the study of polydispersity effects on interfacial behaviour and phase separation kinetics are outlined briefly.Comment: 48 pages, invited topical review for Journal of Physics: Condensed Matter; uses Institute of Physics style file iopart.cls (included

Lessons from the evaluation of the UK's NHS R&D Implementation Methods Programme

Background: Concern about the effective use of research was a major factor behind the creation of the NHS R&D Programme in 1991. In 1994, an advisory group was established to identify research priorities in research implementation. The Implementation Methods Programme (IMP) flowed from this, and its commissioning group funded 36 projects. In 2000 responsibility for the programme passed to the National Co-ordinating Centre for NHS Service Delivery and Organisation R&D, which asked the Health Economics Research Group (HERG), Brunel University, to conduct an evaluation in 2002. By then most projects had been completed. This evaluation was intended to cover: the quality of outputs, lessons to be learnt about the communication strategy and the commissioning process, and the benefits from the projects. Methods: We adopted a wide range of quantitative and qualitative methods. They included: documentary analysis, interviews with key actors, questionnaires to the funded lead researchers, questionnaires to potential users, and desk analysis. Results: Quantitative assessment of outputs and dissemination revealed that the IMP funded useful research projects, some of which had considerable impact against the various categories in the HERG payback model, such as publications, further research, research training, impact on health policy, and clinical practice. Qualitative findings from interviews with advisory and commissioning group members indicated that when the IMP was established, implementation research was a relatively unexplored field. This was reflected in the understanding brought to their roles by members of the advisory and commissioning groups, in the way priorities for research were chosen and developed, and in how the research projects were commissioned. The ideological and methodological debates associated with these decisions have continued among those working in this field. The need for an effective communication strategy for the programme as a whole was particularly important. However, such a strategy was never developed, making it difficult to establish the general influence of the IMP as a programme. Conclusion: Our findings about the impact of the work funded, and the difficulties faced by those developing the IMP, have implications for the development of strategic programmes of research in general, as well as for the development of more effective research in this field

Effect of early vasopressin vs norepinephrine on kidney failure in patients with septic shock. The VANISH Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Norepinephrine is currently recommended as the first-line vasopressor in septic shock; however, early vasopressin use has been proposed as an alternative. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of early vasopressin vs norepinephrine on kidney failure in patients with septic shock. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A factorial (2×2), double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted in 18 general adult intensive care units in the United Kingdom between February 2013 and May 2015, enrolling adult patients who had septic shock requiring vasopressors despite fluid resuscitation within a maximum of 6 hours after the onset of shock. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly allocated to vasopressin (titrated up to 0.06 U/min) and hydrocortisone (n = 101), vasopressin and placebo (n = 104), norepinephrine and hydrocortisone (n = 101), or norepinephrine and placebo (n = 103). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was kidney failure-free days during the 28-day period after randomization, measured as (1) the proportion of patients who never developed kidney failure and (2) median number of days alive and free of kidney failure for patients who did not survive, who experienced kidney failure, or both. Rates of renal replacement therapy, mortality, and serious adverse events were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 409 patients (median age, 66 years; men, 58.2%) were included in the study, with a median time to study drug administration of 3.5 hours after diagnosis of shock. The number of survivors who never developed kidney failure was 94 of 165 patients (57.0%) in the vasopressin group and 93 of 157 patients (59.2%) in the norepinephrine group (difference, -2.3% [95% CI, -13.0% to 8.5%]). The median number of kidney failure-free days for patients who did not survive, who experienced kidney failure, or both was 9 days (interquartile range [IQR], 1 to -24) in the vasopressin group and 13 days (IQR, 1 to -25) in the norepinephrine group (difference, -4 days [95% CI, -11 to 5]). There was less use of renal replacement therapy in the vasopressin group than in the norepinephrine group (25.4% for vasopressin vs 35.3% for norepinephrine; difference, -9.9% [95% CI, -19.3% to -0.6%]). There was no significant difference in mortality rates between groups. In total, 22 of 205 patients (10.7%) had a serious adverse event in the vasopressin group vs 17 of 204 patients (8.3%) in the norepinephrine group (difference, 2.5% [95% CI, -3.3% to 8.2%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among adults with septic shock, the early use of vasopressin compared with norepinephrine did not improve the number of kidney failure-free days. Although these findings do not support the use of vasopressin to replace norepinephrine as initial treatment in this situation, the confidence interval included a potential clinically important benefit for vasopressin, and larger trials may be warranted to assess this further. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: ISRCTN 20769191

Paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder and depressive symptoms: clinical correlates and CBT treatment outcomes.

Depression frequently co-occurs with paediatric obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), yet the clinical correlates and impact of depression on CBT outcomes remain unclear. The prevalence and clinical correlates of depression were examined in a paediatric specialist OCD-clinic sample (N = 295; Mean = 15 [7 - 18] years, 42 % female), using both dimensional (Beck Depression Inventory-youth; n = 261) and diagnostic (Development and Wellbeing Assessment; n = 127) measures of depression. The impact of depressive symptoms and suspected disorders on post-treatment OCD severity was examined in a sub-sample who received CBT, with or without SSRI medication (N = 100). Fifty-one per-cent of patients reported moderately or extremely elevated depressive symptoms and 26 % (95 % CI: 18 - 34) met criteria for a suspected depressive disorder. Depressive symptoms and depressive disorders were associated with worse OCD symptom severity and global functioning prior to CBT. Individuals with depression were more likely to be female, have had a psychiatric inpatient admission and less likely to be attending school (ps < 0.01). OCD and depressive symptom severity significantly decreased after CBT. Depressive symptoms and depressive disorders predicted worse post-treatment OCD severity (βs = 0.19 and 0.26, ps < 0.05) but became non-significant when controlling for pre-treatment OCD severity (βs = 0.05 and 0.13, ns). Depression is common in paediatric OCD and is associated with more severe OCD and poorer functioning. However, depression severity decreases over the course of CBT for OCD and is not independently associated with worse outcomes, supporting the recommendation for treatment as usual in the presence of depressive symptoms