Consumer inflation expectations Survey questions and quantification methods – the case of Poland

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order to estimate Polish consumer inflation perceptions and predictions, based on monthly consumer surveys. The paper also discusses the limited usefulness of quantitative questions, which occur to be excessively difficult for a significant part of respondents, whose numerical declarations are inconsistent with opinions expressed in a qualitative mannerInflation expectations, Surveys, Quantification, Poland

GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Wave and plasma measurements and GPS diagnostics of the main ionospheric trough as a hybrid method used for Space Weather purposes

The region of the main ionospheric trough is a unique region of the ionosphere, where different types of waves and instabilities can be generated. This region of the ionosphere acts like a lens, focusing a variety of indicators from the equator of plasmapause and local ionospheric plasma. This paper reports the results of monitoring the mid-latitude trough structure, dynamics and wave activity. For these purposes, the data gathered by the currently-operating DEMETER satellite and past diagnostics located on IK-19, Apex, and MAGION-3 spacecraft, as well as TEC measurements were used. A global-time varying picture of the ionospheric trough was reconstructed using the sequence of wave spectra registered and plasma measurements in the top-side ionosphere. The authors present the wave activity from ULF frequency band to the HF frequency detected inside the trough region and discuss its properties during geomagnetic disturbances. It is thought that broadband emissions are correlated with low frequency radiation, which is excited by the wave-particle interaction in the equatorial plasmapause and moves to the ionosphere along the geomagnetic field line. In the ionosphere, the suprathermal electrons can interact with these electrostatic waves and excite electron acoustic waves or HF longitudinal plasma waves. <br><br> Furthermore, the electron density trough can provide useful data on the magnetosphere ionosphere dynamics and morphology and, in consequence, can be used for Space Weather purposes

The Reduced Folate Carrier (SLC19A1) c.80G>A Polymorphism is associated with red cell folate concentrations among women

Low folate status may be a consequence of suboptimal intake, transport or cellular utilization of folate and, together with elevated homocysteine, is a recognized risk factor/marker for several human pathologies. As folate transport across cell membranes is mediated in part by the reduced folate carrier (RFC1), variants within this gene may influence disease risk via an effect on folate and/or homocysteine levels. The present study was undertaken to assess the association between the SLC19A1 (RFC1) c.80G>A polymorphism and folate/homocysteine concentrations in healthy young adults from Northern Ireland. The SLC19A1 c.80G>A polymorphism was not strongly associated with either serum folate or homocysteine concentrations in either men or women. However, in women, but not in men, this polymorphism explained 5% of the variation in red blood cell (RBC) folate levels (P=0.02). Relative to women with the SLC19A1 c.80GG genotype, women with the GA and AA genotypes had higher RBC folate concentrations. Consequently, compared to women with the SLC19A1 c.80AA and GA genotypes, women who are homozygous for the 80G allele may be at increased risk of having a child affected with a neural tube defect and of developing pathologies that have been associated with folate insufficiency, such as cardiovascular disease