Risk factors for non-diabetic renal disease in diabetic patients

Background. Diabetic patients with kidney disease have a high prevalence of non-diabetic renal disease (NDRD). Renal and patient survival regarding the diagnosis of diabetic nephropathy (DN) or NDRD have not been widely studied. The aim of our study is to evaluate the prevalence of NDRD in patients with diabetes and to determine the capacity of clinical and analytical data in the prediction of NDRD. In addition, we will study renal and patient prognosis according to the renal biopsy findings in patients with diabetes. Methods. Retrospective multicentre observational study of renal biopsies performed in patients with diabetes from 2002 to 2014. Results. In total, 832 patients were included: 621 men (74.6%), mean age of 61.7 6 12.8 years, creatinine was 2.8 6 2.2 mg/dL and proteinuria 2.7 (interquartile range: 1.2–5.4) g/24 h. About 39.5% (n ¼ 329) of patients had DN, 49.6% (n ¼ 413) NDRD and 10.8% (n ¼ 90) mixed forms. The most frequent NDRD was nephroangiosclerosis (NAS) (n ¼ 87, 9.3%). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, older age [odds ratio (OR) ¼ 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02–1.05, P < 0.001], microhaematuria (OR ¼ 1.51, 95% CI: 1.03–2.21, P ¼ 0.033) and absence of diabetic retinopathy (DR) (OR ¼ 0.28, 95% CI: 0.19–0.42, P < 0.001) were independently associated with NDRD. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with DN or mixed forms presented worse renal prognosis than NDRD (P < 0.001) and higher mortality (P ¼ 0.029). In multivariate Cox analyses, older age (P < 0.001), higher serum creatinine (P < 0.001), higher proteinuria (P < 0.001), DR (P ¼ 0.007) and DN (P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for renal replacement therapy. In addition, older age (P < 0.001), peripheral vascular disease (P ¼ 0.002), higher creatinine (P ¼ 0.01) and DN (P ¼ 0.015) were independent risk factors for mortality. Conclusions. The most frequent cause of NDRD is NAS. Elderly patients with microhaematuria and the absence of DR are the ones at risk for NDRD. Patients with DN presented worse renal prognosis and higher mortality than those with NDRD. These results suggest that in some patients with diabetes, kidney biopsy may be useful for an accurate renal diagnosis and subsequently treatment and prognosis

Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences