Understanding species distribution in dynamic populations : a new approach using spatio‐temporal point process models

Funding: EU consolidator’s grant STATEMIG 310820 (SB).Understanding and predicting a species’ distribution across a landscape is of central importance in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology. However, it presents daunting challenges when populations are highly dynamic (i.e. increasing or decreasing their ranges), particularly for small populations where information about ecology and life history traits is lacking. Currently, many modelling approaches fail to distinguish whether a site is unoccupied because the available habitat is unsuitable or because a species expanding its range has not arrived at the site yet. As a result, habitat that is indeed suitable may appear unsuitable. To overcome some of these limitations, we use a statistical modelling approach based on spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox processes. These model the spatial distribution of the species across available habitat and how this distribution changes over time, relative to covariates. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for spatio‐temporal dynamics that are unaccounted for by covariates through a spatio‐temporal stochastic process. We illustrate the approach by predicting the distribution of a recently established population of Eurasian cranes Grus grus in England, UK, and estimate the effect of a reintroduction in the range expansion of the population. Our models show that wetland extent and perimeter‐to‐area ratio have a positive and negative effect, respectively, in crane colonisation probability. Moreover, we find that cranes are more likely to colonise areas near already occupied wetlands and that the colonisation process is progressing at a low rate. Finally, the reintroduction of cranes in SW England can be considered a human‐assisted long‐distance dispersal event that has increased the dispersal potential of the species along a longitudinal axis in S England. Spatio‐temporal log‐Gaussian Cox process models offer an excellent opportunity for the study of species where information on life history traits is lacking, since these are represented through the spatio‐temporal dynamics reflected in the model.PostprintPeer reviewe

Health-impaired employees' job satisfaction: new evidence from Athens, Greece

By utilizing the 2008 Athens Area Study (AAS) data set, this study investigates four aspects of job satisfaction - total pay, promotion prospects, respect received from one's supervisor, and total job satisfaction - between healthy and heath-impaired employees. Health impaired employees are found to be less satisfied according to all job satisfaction measures even when a large number of productivity features, and job characteristics are controlled for. The outcomes suggest also that women are more satisfied with their jobs than men are, regardless of health status. Moreover, the estimations show that health impaired employees' job satisfaction is affected more than healthy employees' job satisfaction by adverse mental health symptoms (life dissatisfaction). Finally, health impaired employees are found to become more satisfied with their jobs with time after disability onset. The study concludes that health impaired employees may have higher expectations about what they will obtain from their work, and that they may have job satisfaction adjustments

Aboriginal young people’s perspectives and experiences of accessing sexual health services and sex education in Australia: A qualitative study

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Aboriginal) young people seek information and access health services for their sexual health needs. This study examined Aboriginal young people’s perspectives on sexual health services and sex education in Australia. Overall, 51 Aboriginal people aged 16–26 years were interviewed by peer researchers in Sydney, Australia in 2019–2020. The findings suggest that the internet was used to assess information quickly and confidentially, but Aboriginal young people questioned its reliability and accuracy. Family, Elders and peers were seen as sources of advice because they had real-life experience and highlighted intergenerational learning that occurs in Aboriginal communities. School-based sex education programmes had mixed reviews, with a preference for programmes delivered by external specialists providing anonymity, clear and accurate information about sex and relationships and positive approaches to sex education, including how to gain consent before sex. There was a need identified for school-based programmes to better consider the needs of Aboriginal young people, including those who identified as LGBTQI +. Aboriginal Medical Services were highly valued for providing culturally safe access to services, while sexual health clinics were valued for providing specialised confidential clinical services with low levels of judgement

Ethanol production from xylose by pichia stipitis NRRL Y-7124 in a stirred tank bioreactor

The ethanol production by Pichia stipitis was evaluated in a stirred tank bioreactor using semidefined medium containing xylose (90.0 g/l) as the main carbon source. Experimental assays were performed according to a 22 full factorial design to evaluate the influence of aeration (0.25 to 0.75 vvm) and agitation (150 to 250 rpm) conditions on ethanol production. In the studied range of values, the agitation increase and aeration decrease favored ethanol production, which was maximum (26.7 g/l) using 250 rpm and 0.25 vvm, conditions that gave a volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa value) of 4.9 h-1. Under these conditions, the ethanol yield factor, ethanol productivity, and the process efficiency were 0.32 g/g, 0.32 g/l.h, and 63%, respectively. These results are promising and contribute to the development of a suitable process for ethanol production from xylose by Pichia stipitis.The authors gratefully acknowledge Santander, Fapesp, Capes, and CNPq (Brazil)

Optimal functional outcome measures for assessing treatment for Dupuytren's disease: A systematic review and recommendations for future practice

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2013 Ball et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Background: Dupuytren's disease of the hand is a common condition affecting the palmar fascia, resulting in progressive flexion deformities of the digits and hence limitation of hand function. The optimal treatment remains unclear as outcomes studies have used a variety of measures for assessment. Methods: A literature search was performed for all publications describing surgical treatment, percutaneous needle aponeurotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease where outcomes had been monitored using functional measures. Results: Ninety-one studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two studies reported outcomes using patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) ranging from validated questionnaires to self-reported measures for return to work and self-rated disability. The Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score was the most utilised patient-reported function measure (n=11). Patient satisfaction was reported by eighteen studies but no single method was used consistently. Range of movement was the most frequent physical measure and was reported in all 91 studies. However, the methods of measurement and reporting varied, with seventeen different techniques being used. Other physical measures included grip and pinch strength and sensibility, again with variations in measurement protocols. The mean follow-up time ranged from 2 weeks to 17 years. Conclusions: There is little consistency in the reporting of outcomes for interventions in patients with Dupuytren’s disease, making it impossible to compare the efficacy of different treatment modalities. Although there are limitations to the existing generic patient reported outcomes measures, a combination of these together with a disease-specific questionnaire, and physical measures of active and passive individual joint Range of movement (ROM), grip and sensibility using standardised protocols should be used for future outcomes studies. As Dupuytren’s disease tends to recur following treatment as well as extend to involve other areas of the hand, follow-up times should be standardised and designed to capture both short and long term outcomes

Transfer of thawed frozen embryo versus fresh embryo to improve the healthy baby rate in women undergoing IVF : the E-Freeze RCT

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Planned delivery for pre-eclampsia between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation: the PHOENIX RCT.

BACKGROUND: In women with late preterm pre-eclampsia (i.e. at 34+0 to 36+6 weeks' gestation), the optimal delivery time is unclear because limitation of maternal-fetal disease progression needs to be balanced against infant complications. The aim of this trial was to determine whether or not planned earlier initiation of delivery reduces maternal adverse outcomes without substantial worsening of perinatal or infant outcomes, compared with expectant management, in women with late preterm pre-eclampsia. METHODS: We undertook an individually randomised, triple non-masked controlled trial in 46 maternity units across England and Wales, with an embedded health economic evaluation, comparing planned delivery and expectant management (usual care) in women with late preterm pre-eclampsia. The co-primary maternal outcome was a maternal morbidity composite or recorded systolic blood pressure of ≥ 160 mmHg (superiority hypothesis). The co-primary short-term perinatal outcome was a composite of perinatal deaths or neonatal unit admission (non-inferiority hypothesis). Analyses were by intention to treat, with an additional per-protocol analysis for the perinatal outcome. The primary 2-year infant neurodevelopmental outcome was measured using the PARCA-R (Parent Report of Children's Abilities-Revised) composite score. The planned sample size of the trial was 900 women; the trial is now completed. We undertook two linked substudies. RESULTS: Between 29 September 2014 and 10 December 2018, 901 women were recruited; 450 women [448 women (two withdrew consent) and 471 infants] were allocated to planned delivery and 451 women (451 women and 475 infants) were allocated to expectant management. The incidence of the co-primary maternal outcome was significantly lower in the planned delivery group [289 (65%) women] than in the expectant management group [338 (75%) women] (adjusted relative risk 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.94; p = 0.0005). The incidence of the co-primary perinatal outcome was significantly higher in the planned delivery group [196 (42%) infants] than in the expectant management group [159 (34%) infants] (adjusted relative risk 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.47; p = 0.0034), but indicators of neonatal morbidity were similar in both groups. At 2-year follow-up, the mean PARCA-R scores were 89.5 points (standard deviation 18.2 points) for the planned delivery group (290 infants) and 91.9 points (standard deviation 18.4 points) for the expectant management group (256 infants), both within the normal developmental range (adjusted mean difference -2.4 points, 95% confidence interval -5.4 to 0.5 points; non-inferiority p = 0.147). Planned delivery was significantly cost-saving (-£2711, 95% confidence interval -£4840 to -£637) compared with expectant management. There were nine serious adverse events in the planned delivery group and 12 in the expectant management group. CONCLUSION: In women with late preterm pre-eclampsia, planned delivery reduces short-term maternal morbidity compared with expectant management, with more neonatal unit admissions related to prematurity but no indicators of greater short-term neonatal morbidity (such as need for respiratory support). At 2-year follow-up, around 60% of parents reported follow-up scores. Average infant development was within the normal range for both groups; the small between-group mean difference in PARCA-R scores is unlikely to be clinically important. Planned delivery was significantly cost-saving to the health service. These findings should be discussed with women with late preterm pre-eclampsia to allow shared decision-making on timing of delivery. LIMITATIONS: Limitations of the trial include the challenges of finding a perinatal outcome that adequately represented the potential risks of both groups and a maternal outcome that reflects the multiorgan manifestations of pre-eclampsia. The incidences of maternal and perinatal primary outcomes were higher than anticipated on the basis of previous studies, but this did not limit interpretation of the analysis. The trial was limited by a higher loss to follow-up rate than expected, meaning that the extent and direction of bias in outcomes (between responders and non-responders) is uncertain. A longer follow-up period (e.g. up to 5 years) would have enabled us to provide further evidence on long-term infant outcomes, but this runs the risk of greater attrition and increased expense. FUTURE WORK: We identified a number of further questions that could be prioritised through a formal scoping process, including uncertainties around disease-modifying interventions, prognostic factors, longer-term follow-up, the perspectives of women and their families, meta-analysis with other studies, effect of a similar intervention in other health-care settings, and clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of other related policies around neonatal unit admission in late preterm birth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was prospectively registered as ISRCTN01879376. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

ExoClock Project III: 450 new exoplanet ephemerides from ground and space observations

The ExoClock project has been created with the aim of increasing the efficiency of the Ariel mission. It will achieve this by continuously monitoring and updating the ephemerides of Ariel candidates over an extended period, in order to produce a consistent catalogue of reliable and precise ephemerides. This work presents a homogenous catalogue of updated ephemerides for 450 planets, generated by the integration of $\sim$18000 data points from multiple sources. These sources include observations from ground-based telescopes (ExoClock network and ETD), mid-time values from the literature and light-curves from space telescopes (Kepler/K2 and TESS). With all the above, we manage to collect observations for half of the post-discovery years (median), with data that have a median uncertainty less than one minute. In comparison with literature, the ephemerides generated by the project are more precise and less biased. More than 40\% of the initial literature ephemerides had to be updated to reach the goals of the project, as they were either of low precision or drifting. Moreover, the integrated approach of the project enables both the monitoring of the majority of the Ariel candidates (95\%), and also the identification of missing data. The dedicated ExoClock network effectively supports this task by contributing additional observations when a gap in the data is identified. These results highlight the need for continuous monitoring to increase the observing coverage of the candidate planets. Finally, the extended observing coverage of planets allows us to detect trends (TTVs - Transit Timing Variations) for a sample of 19 planets. All products, data, and codes used in this work are open and accessible to the wider scientific community.Comment: Recommended for publication to ApJS (reviewer's comments implemented). Main body: 13 pages, total: 77 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables. Data available at http://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/P298