Accuracy assessment of global barotropic ocean tide models

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109077/1/rog_stammeretal_tidereviewpaper_2014.pd

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Present-day Arctic sea ice variability in the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model

As a contribution to a detailed evaluation of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-type coupled climate models against observations, this study analyzes Arctic sea ice parameters simulated by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) fully coupled climate model ECHAM5/Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Primitive Equation Ocean Model (MPI-OM) for the period from 1980 to 1999 and compares them with observations collected during field programs and by satellites. Results of the coupled run forced by twentieth-century CO2 concentrations show significant discrepancies during summer months with respect to observations of the spatial distribution of the ice concentration and ice thickness. Equally important, the coupled run lacks interannual variability in all ice and Arctic Ocean parameters. Causes for such big discrepancies arise from errors in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM atmosphere and associated errors in surface forcing fields (especially wind stress). This includes mean bias pattern caused by an artificial circulation around the geometric North Pole in its atmosphere, as well as insufficient atmospheric variability in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, for example, associated with Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). In contrast, the identical coupled ocean-ice model, when driven by NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fields, shows much increased skill in its ice and ocean circulation parameters. However, common to both model runs is too strong an ice export through the Fram Strait and a substantially biased heat content in the interior of the Arctic Ocean, both of which may affect sea ice budgets in centennial projections of the Arctic climate syste

Large-scale impact of Saharan dust on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation

The potential for a dynamical impact of Saharan mineral dust on the North Atlantic Ocean large-scale circulation is investigated. To this end, an ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric fluxes is perturbed by an idealized, seasonally varying, net shortwave flux anomaly, as it results from remote sensing observations of aerosol optical thickness representing Saharan dust load in the atmosphere. The dust dynamical impact on the circulation is assessed through a comparison between perturbed and an unperturbed run. Results suggest that, following the dust-induced shortwave irradiance anomaly, a buoyancy anomaly is created in the Atlantic offshore the African coast, which over the course of the time propagates westward into the interior Atlantic while progressively subducting. Changes in the large-scale barotropic and overturning circulations are significant after 3 years, which coincides with the elapsed time required by the bulk of the buoyancy perturbation to reach the western boundary of the North Atlantic. Although small in amplitude, the changes in the meridional overturning are of the same order as interannual-to-decadal variability. Variations in the amplitude of the forcing lead to changes in the amplitude of the response, which is almost linear during the first 3 years. In addition, a fast, but dynamically insignificant, response can be observed to propagate poleward along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic, which contributes to a nonlinear response in the subpolar region north of 40°N

On the early response of the climate system to a meltwater input from Greenland

The early response of the atmosphere–ocean system to meltwater runoff originating from the Greenland ice sheet is studied using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). For this purpose, AOGCM ensemble simulations without and with associated ocean freshening around Greenland are compared. For freshwater perturbations initiated in northern winter, the mean response for the first three months shows the emergence of negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Denmark Strait, in association with enhanced oceanic advection by the East Greenland Current. The response also shows negative SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with enhanced westerlies at the ocean surface. Additionally, the baroclinic atmospheric cyclonic circulation east of Greenland intensifies, and anticyclonic circulations with equivalent barotropic structures develop over western Europe and the North Pacific Ocean. Simulations by the atmospheric component of the AOGCM indicate that atmosphere–ocean interactions contribute significantly to enhance the response. The sensitivity of the coupled system response to the timing of freshwater perturbation is also studied. For freshwater perturbations initialized in northern summer, the response during the following winter is similar, but stronger in magnitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, the atmospheric response resembles the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode of variability. The association between anomalies in the Denmark Strait SSTs and in the atmosphere east of Greenland is consistent with that observed during previous great salinity anomaly (GSA) events. The results obtained highlight the importance of atmosphere–ocean interaction in the early climate response to Greenland melting, the teleconnections with the North Pacific and the contribution of GSA events to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensembles with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. Thus, in order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are necessary

Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002-11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions