EU economic integration agreements, Brexit and trade

The effects of regionalism on trade have been extensively evaluated within a gravity model framework. With the expected exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), the prospect of regional disintegration has brought about a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using actual and forecast data for a panel of bilateral imports between the EU15 and the rest of the world, this paper examines the trade effects of EU economic integration agreements (EIAs), their evolution over time and the related counterfactual Brexit trade policy scenarios. Distinct trade effects are obtained for the EU trade related agreements; positive, significant and of similar magnitude for the EU and free trade agreement (FTA) coefficients, but negative and significant (and smaller in magnitude) for the regional economic partnership agreements (EPAs). The subperiod results suggest the positive coefficients of EU and FTA membership tend to diminish over time, implying earlier membership of EIAs came with greater trade benefits. Finally, in generating the predicted values for the trade effects of three alternative counterfactual Brexit scenarios (hard Brexit, hard Brexit plus, global Britain), the findings suggest an asymmetric effect depending on the perspective of the UK versus the EU. Whereas the UK’s trade would decline substantially with all three country groups (the EU, the FTAs and regional EPAs) and rise substantially with the rest of the world, only minor percentage changes are predicted for EU bilateral trade

A stochastic frontier analysis of trade efficiency for the new EU member states: implications of Brexit

Examining the trade performance for the new European Union (EU) member states is an important issue in the context of the enlargement process – and in a new era of membership contraction with the likely exit of the United Kingdom from the EU. Typically, the degree of trade integration is assessed by comparing actual trade volumes with potential trade volumes projected from the gravity model parameters estimated for a reference group of countries that best represent normal trade relations. This approach, however, does not compare trade levels against a maximum level of trade defined by a stochastic frontier. In this paper, a stochastic frontier specification of the gravity model is used to identify the efficiency of trade integration relative to maximum trade levels. The findings, based on a panel dataset of bilateral exports from 18 Western European countries to the 13 new member states over the 1995-2022 period, indicate a high degree of trade integration close to two-thirds of frontier estimates. Using forecast data for 2017-2022, trade efficiency should remain broadly stable and even increase for the larger countries in the likely post-Brexit phase

Foreign direct investment performance: a stochastic frontier analysis of location and variance determinants

The opening up process of the eastern European countries was marked by greater integration of foreign direct investment (FDI) with their western neighbouring countries. Using the single step maximum likelihood (ML) approach to stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), the location and variance determinants of FDI are estimated using the knowledge capital (KK) model framework. The findings, based on a panel of bilateral FDI stocks from 10 western to 10 eastern European countries over the 1996 to 2007 period, suggest FDI is determined by both horizontal and vertical motives while the process of liberalisation and infrastructural developments significantly reduce the variance of FDI. In using a stochastic frontier specification of the KK model, the efficiency of FDI performance is identified relative to maximum levels. The bilateral efficiency scores suggest a mixed performance, indicating scope to improve the efficiency of FDI

Foreign direct investment in the eastern European countries: determinants and performance

This paper assesses the determinants, changing nature and the performance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the eastern European countries within the knowledge capital (KK) model framework. The findings from a panel of bilateral FDI stocks from 10 western European countries to 10 eastern European countries over the years 1996–2007 indicate the presence of both vertical and horizontal motives of FDI with a shift over time towards the latter. In identifying the efficiency of FDI integration relative to maximum potential levels, the stochastic frontier specification of the KK model indicates a mixed degree of FDI performance

Improving tribological properties of cast Al-Si alloys through application of wear-resistant thermal spray coatings

Flame Spray Thermal Spray coatings are low-cost, high-wear surface-treatment technologies. However, little has been reported on their potential effects on cast automotive aluminum alloys. The aim of this research was to investigate the tribological properties of as-sprayed NiCrBSi and WC/12Co Flame Spray coatings applied to two cast aluminum alloys: high-copper LM24 (AlSi8Cu3Fe), and low-copper LM25 (AlSi7Mg). Potential interactions between the mechanical properties of the substrate and the deposited coatings were deemed to be significant. Microstructural, microhardness, friction, and wear (pin-on-disk, microabrasion, Taber abrasion, etc.) results are reported, and the performance differences between coatings on the different substrates were noted. The coefficient of friction was reduced from 0.69-0.72 to 0.12-0.35. Wear (pin-on-disk) was reduced by a factor of 103-104, which was related to the high surface roughness of the coatings. Microabrasion wear was dependent on coating hardness and applied load. Taber abrasion results showed a strong dependency on the substrate, coating morphology, and homogeneity

Trends in incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983–2006

Cancer risk is increased substantially in adult kidney transplant recipients, but the long-term risk of cancer in childhood recipients is unclear. Using the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, the authors compared overall and site-specific incidences of cancer after transplantation in childhood recipients with population-based data by using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). Among 1734 childhood recipients (median age 14 years, 57% male, 85% white), 289 (16.7%) developed cancer (196 nonmelanoma skin cancers, 143 nonskin cancers) over a median follow-up of 13.4 years. The 25-year cumulative incidences of any cancer were 27% (95% confidence intervals 24-30%), 20% (17-23%) for nonmelanoma skin cancer, and 14% (12-17%) for nonskin cancer (including melanoma). The SIR for nonskin cancer was 8.23 (95% CI 6.92-9.73), with the highest risk for posttransplant lymphoproliferative disease (SIR 45.80, 95% CI 32.71-62.44) and cervical cancer (29.4, 95% CI 17.5-46.5). Increasing age at transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per year 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14), white race (aHR 3.36, 95% CI 1.61-6.79), and having a functioning transplant (aHR 2.27, 95% CI 1.47-3.71) were risk factors for cancer. Cancer risk, particularly for virus-related cancers, is increased substantially after kidney transplantation during childhood

Substrate finishing and niobium content effects on the high temperature corrosion resistance in steam atmosphere of CrN/NbN superlattice coatings deposited by PVD-HIPIMS

The main objective of this work was to evaluate the oxidation resistance of three PVD-HIPIMS CrN/NbN coatings, studying the effect of the surface finishing of the substrate and the role of niobium content into the coating composition. CrN/NbN nano-multilayered films on P92 steel were tested at 650°C in pure steam atmosphere. The mass gain was measured at fixed intervals to study their oxidation kinetics. The morphology and thickness of nanoscales were measured by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Characterization of coatings before and after the thermal treatment was performed by scanning electron microscopy-energy with facilities of dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM–EDX) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). All coatings improved the oxidation resistance of the substrate material, but the best behaviour was exhibited by the CrN/NbN with the high niobium (Nb) content and deposited on the substrate with the finest surface finishing

Life time suicidal thoughts in an urban community in Hanoi, Vietnam

BACKGROUND: Suicidal thought is a risk factor and a stage in the suicidal process from planning to attempting and dying by suicide. To date, studies on suicidal thought in the general population, especially in Asian communities, have been limited. METHOD: The WHO SUPRE-MISS (the multisite intervention study on suicidal behaviours) community survey questionnaire was filled in for 2,280 randomly selected residents of the DongDa district of Hanoi, Vietnam by means of face-to-face interviews. This multi-factor questionnaire includes such variables as sociodemographic information, suicidal thought and history of suicide attempts, physical health, alcohol consumption and medication. RESULTS: Prevalence rates for life time suicidal thoughts, suicide plans and suicide attempts were 8.9%, 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. Suicidal thoughts are associated with multiple characteristics, such as female gender, single/widowed/separated/divorced marital status, low income, lifestyle (use of alcohol, sedatives and pain relief medication), but not with low education or employment status. Having no religion and being a Buddhist appear to be protective factors for suicidal thought. The ratio of suicidal thoughts, suicide plans and suicide attempts on a lifetime basis is 22.3:2.8:1. CONCLUSION: In Vietnam, as in Western and other Asian countries, suicidal thoughts are associated with similar negative psychosocial risk factors, lifestyle and emotional problems, which implies that suicide preventive measure developed elsewhere can be adjusted to Vietnamese condition. Understanding the unique and common risks in a culture may assist in prediction and control