On hidden Markov chains and finite stochastic systems

In this paper we study various properties of finite stochastic systems or hidden Markov chains as they are alternatively called. We discuss their construction following different approaches and we also derive recursive filtering formulas for the different systems that we consider. The key tool is a simple lemma on conditional expectations

A block Hankel generalized confluent Vandermonde matrix

Vandermonde matrices are well known. They have a number of interesting properties and play a role in (Lagrange) interpolation problems, partial fraction expansions, and finding solutions to linear ordinary differential equations, to mention just a few applications. Usually, one takes these matrices square, $q\times q$ say, in which case the $i$-th column is given by $u(z_i)$, where we write $u(z)=(1,z,...,z^{q-1})^\top$. If all the $z_i$ ($i=1,...,q$) are different, the Vandermonde matrix is non-singular, otherwise not. The latter case obviously takes place when all $z_i$ are the same, $z$ say, in which case one could speak of a confluent Vandermonde matrix. Non-singularity is obtained if one considers the matrix $V(z)$ whose $i$-th column ($i=1,...,q$) is given by the $(i-1)$-th derivative $u^{(i-1)}(z)^\top$. We will consider generalizations of the confluent Vandermonde matrix $V(z)$ by considering matrices obtained by using as building blocks the matrices $M(z)=u(z)w(z)$, with $u(z)$ as above and $w(z)=(1,z,...,z^{r-1})$, together with its derivatives $M^{(k)}(z)$. Specifically, we will look at matrices whose $ij$-th block is given by $M^{(i+j)}(z)$, where the indices $i,j$ by convention have initial value zero. These in general non-square matrices exhibit a block-Hankel structure. We will answer a number of elementary questions for this matrix. What is the rank? What is the null-space? Can the latter be parametrized in a simple way? Does it depend on $z$? What are left or right inverses? It turns out that answers can be obtained by factorizing the matrix into a product of other matrix polynomials having a simple structure. The answers depend on the size of the matrix $M(z)$ and the number of derivatives $M^{(k)}(z)$ that is involved. The results are obtained by mostly elementary methods, no specific knowledge of the theory of matrix polynomials is needed

Approximate Nonnegative Matrix Factorization via Alternating Minimization

In this paper we consider the Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) problem: given an (elementwise) nonnegative matrix $V \in \R_+^{m\times n}$ find, for assigned $k$, nonnegative matrices $W\in\R_+^{m\times k}$ and $H\in\R_+^{k\times n}$ such that $V=WH$. Exact, non trivial, nonnegative factorizations do not always exist, hence it is interesting to pose the approximate NMF problem. The criterion which is commonly employed is I-divergence between nonnegative matrices. The problem becomes that of finding, for assigned $k$, the factorization $WH$ closest to $V$ in I-divergence. An iterative algorithm, EM like, for the construction of the best pair $(W, H)$ has been proposed in the literature. In this paper we interpret the algorithm as an alternating minimization procedure \`a la Csisz\'ar-Tusn\'ady and investigate some of its stability properties. NMF is widespreading as a data analysis method in applications for which the positivity constraint is relevant. There are other data analysis methods which impose some form of nonnegativity: we discuss here the connections between NMF and Archetypal Analysis. An interesting system theoretic application of NMF is to the problem of approximate realization of Hidden Markov Models

Factor Analysis and Alternating Minimization

In this paper we make a first attempt at understanding how to build an optimal approximate normal factor analysis model. The criterion we have chosen to evaluate the distance between different models is the I-divergence between the corresponding normal laws. The algorithm that we propose for the construction of the best approximation is of an the alternating minimization kind

Explicit computations for some Markov modulated counting processes

In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In finance, for instance, one could identify the background process with the `state of the economy', to which asset prices react, or as an identification of the varying default rate of an obligor. The key feature of the counting processes in this paper is that their intensity processes are functions of a finite state Markov chain. This kind of processes can be used to model default events of some companies. Many quantities of interest in this paper, like conditional characteristic functions, can all be derived from conditional probabilities, which can, in principle, be analytically computed. We will also study limit results for models with rapid switching, which occur when inflating the intensity matrix of the Markov chain by a factor tending to infinity. The paper is largely expository in nature, with a didactic flavor

Large deviations for Markov-modulated diffusion processes with rapid switching

In this paper, we study small noise asymptotics of Markov-modulated diffusion processes in the regime that the modulating Markov chain is rapidly switching. We prove the joint sample-path large deviations principle for the Markov-modulated diffusion process and the occupation measure of the Markov chain (which evidently also yields the large deviations principle for each of them separately by applying the contraction principle). The structure of the proof is such that we first prove exponential tightness, and then establish a local large deviations principle (where the latter part is split into proving the corresponding upper bound and lower bound)

Sample-path Large Deviations in Credit Risk

The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail asymptotics of the probabilities involved. We first derive a sample-path large deviation principle (LDP) for the portfolio's loss process, which enables the computation of the logarithmic decay rate of the probabilities of interest. In addition, we derive exact asymptotic results for a number of specific rare-event probabilities, such as the probability of the loss process exceeding some given function