Stocks, Bonds, T-Bills and Inflation Hedging

We analyze the inflation-hedging properties of US stocks, bonds, and T-bills at the subindex level during the 1983 “ 2012 period, for investment horizons between 1 month and 10 years. Bonds other than T-bills turn out poor inflation hedges during the entire sample period, regardless of the investment horizon. Stocks in both cyclical and non-cyclical industries have virtually no hedging ability until the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. From that moment on, equity subindices particularly in the cyclical industries started to develop statistically significant hedging ability, even in the short run. Hence, the extent to which investors can benefit from the hedging ability of stocks and bonds varies over time and across industries, maturities and investment horizons

Prognostic factors for disability claim duration due to musculoskeletal symptoms among self-employed persons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Employees and self-employed persons have, among others, different personal characteristics and different working conditions, which may influence the prognosis of sick leave and the duration of a disability claim. The purpose of the current study is to identify prognostic factors for the duration of a disability claim due to non-specific musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) among self-employed persons in the Netherlands.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study population consisted of 276 self-employed persons, who all had a disability claim episode due to MSD with at least 75% work disability. The study was a cohort study with a follow-up period of 12 months. At baseline, participants filled in a questionnaire with possible individual, work-related and disease-related prognostic factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The following prognostic factors significantly increased claim duration: age > 40 years (Hazard Ratio 0.54), no similar symptoms in the past (HR 0.46), having long-lasting symptoms of more than six months (HR 0.60), self-predicted return to work within more than one month or never (HR 0.24) and job dissatisfaction (HR 0.54).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prognostic factors we found indicate that for self-employed persons, the duration of a disability claim not only depends on the (history of) impairment of the insured, but also on age, self-predicted return to work and job satisfaction.</p

Objective Bayesian Analysis of the Yule-Simon Distribution with Applications

The Yule-Simon distribution is usually employed in the analysis of frequency data. As the Bayesian literature, so far, has ignored this distribution, here we show the derivation of two objective priors for the parameter of the Yule--Simon distribution. In particular, we discuss the Jeffreys prior and a loss-based prior, which has recently appeared in the literature. We illustrate the performance of the derived priors through a simulation study and the analysis of real datasets