Prototype solar power satellite options

The choice of options for the prototype solar power satellite is addressed relative to risk and cost. Emphasis is placed on the reduction of the risk of failure. Risk is the program cost multiplied by the reduction in probability of program success due to the risky action. Four classes of risk are identified. It is suggested that prototyping would reduce the technical risk as well as reduce the effects of the other three types of risk by allowing them to be quantified earlier. Prototype demonstration requirements addressed include electromagnetic power link feasibility demonstration, component integration verification, construction technology verification, and cost performance verification. Specific prototype requirements are listed and prototyping options are given in tabular form

High-power microwave optics for flexible power transmission systems

A large concave microwave mirror near the transmitter can magnify the apparent size of the Earth as seen from a phased array, and vice versa, permitting a small phased array to be coupled to a small rectenna while preserving the transmission efficiency (the reflection loss is slight) and peak power densities characteristic of the reference system. This augmentation of the phased array aperture with a large mirror gives the system greater resolution (in the optical sense), and opens new degrees of freedom in SPS design. The consequences of such an approach for a prototype satellite were explored. Its consequences for a mature SPS are discussed

Response to ?A Madden-Julian Oscillation Event Realistically Simulated by a Global Cloud-Resolving Model?

I agree with the authors that forecasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a high resolution global model is important for numerous reasons, including improved weather forecast skill beyond 10 days, and resolving small scale features embedded in the MJO that coarse resolution ({approx}100-300km horizontal grid spacing) climate models do not (e.g., tropical cyclones). Unfortunately, the authors promote the (incorrect) overall impression that coarse resolution climate models cannot simulate the MJO by (a) only discussing aspects of works that indicate the poor ability of coarse resolution climate models to simulate the MJO, and (b) by promoting the use of higher resolution models, and the use of embedded two-dimensional cloud resolving models embedded in coarse resolution climate models as the principal methods for realistically representing the MJO because of the difficulty of coarse resolution models 'to estimate the vertical redistribution of heat and moisture by unresolved convective clouds'. Regarding items (a) and (b), I have co-authored two of the works cited by Miura et al. that bemoan the poor ability of coarse resolution climate models to simulate the MJO, and indeed simulating the MJO in coarse resolution climate models is a grand challenge. However, I would like to draw to their attention to work that has demonstrated that two different coarse resolution climate models, using conventional parameterizations of convection and clouds, can represent the MJO with high fidelity. In the later study, where more complete model diagnostics were available, important aspects of the MJO that were realistically represented included the relationship between convection and low-level moisture convergence, surface fluxes, the vertical structure of winds and divergence, and important air-sea interactions. Additionally, regarding item (b), convection is certainly of central importance in representing the MJO, but it is the interaction of convection (parameterized or otherwise) with other aspects of the model physics that is important. Thus, it is the implementation of the full physics package that is relevant, not simply the manner in which convection is represented. The issue at hand is to determine what aspects of the physics present in the high resolution (and embedded 2-dimensional cloud resolving model) simulations are essential for incorporation into coarse resolution climate model parameterizations in order for them to adequately represent the MJO. In the foreseeable future, models used for climate and climate change studies will continue to require convective parameterization in order to produce simulations that span decadal to centennial time scales to estimate the impact of anthropogenic influences on the statistics of weather variability and extremes. As such, intercomparison across different classes of modeling is essential to better understand the physics relevant to the climate system

The First Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons

In 2004 the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) that provides scientific guidance to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) requested an assessment of (1) WCRP monsoon related activities and (2) the range of available observations and analyses in monsoon regions. The purpose of the assessment was to (a) define the essential elements of a pan-WCRP monsoon modeling strategy, (b) identify the procedures for producing this strategy, and (c) promote improvements in monsoon observations and analyses with a view toward their adequacy, and addressing any undue redundancy or duplication. As such, the WCRP sponsored the ''1st Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons'' at the University of California, Irvine, CA, USA from 15-17 June 2005. Experts from the two WCRP programs directly relevant to monsoon studies, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), gathered to assess the current understanding of the fundamental physical processes governing monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems in simulating the monsoon that can be tackled through enhanced cooperation between CLIVAR and GEWEX. The agenda with links to the presentations can be found at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/aamon/WCRPmonsoonWS/agenda.htm. Scientific motivation for a joint CLIVAR-GEWEX approach to investigating monsoons includes the potential for improved medium-range to seasonal prediction through better simulation of intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISO's). ISO's are important for the onset of monsoons, as well as the development of active and break periods of rainfall during the monsoon season. Foreknowledge of the active and break phases of the monsoon is important for crop selection, the determination of planting times and mitigation of potential flooding and short-term drought. With a few exceptions simulations of ISO are typically poor in all classes of modeling. Observational and modeling studies indicate that the diurnal cycle of radiative heating and surface fluxes over the ocean are rectified on to the intraseasonal timescale indicating that a synergistic approach to studying monsoon variability is necessary. The diurnal cycle of precipitation and clouds, which directly influence the radiative heating and surface fluxes, are also poorly represented in global models, especially. Thus, it is anticipated that improving the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation and clouds in global models will contribute to an improved ability to simulate ISOs. Improved understanding and simulation of the diurnal cycle is also important since it influences low-levels jets and the associated transport of moisture as well as the rainfall over regions of complex topography

Coupled Model Simulations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal (30-50 day) Variability, Part 1: Systematic Errors and Caution on Use of Metrics

Boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability (BSISV) over the Asian monsoon region is more complex than its boreal winter counterpart, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), since it also exhibits northward and northwestward propagating convective components near India and over the west Pacific. Here we analyze the BSISV in the CMIP3 and two CMIP2+ coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Though most models exhibit eastward propagation of convective anomalies over the Indian Ocean, difficulty remains in simulating the life cycle of the BSISV, as few represent its eastward extension into the western/central Pacific. As such, few models produce statistically significant anomalies that comprise the northwest to southeast tilted convection which results from the forced Rossby waves that are excited by the near-equatorial convective anomalies. Our results indicate that it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, that the locations the time-mean monsoon heat sources and the easterly wind shear be simulated correctly in order for the life cycle of the BSISV to be represented realistically. Extreme caution is needed when using metrics, such as the pattern correlation, for assessing the fidelity of model performance, as models with the most physically realistic BSISV do not necessarily exhibit the highest pattern correlations with observations. Furthermore, diagnostic latitude-time plots to evaluate the northward propagation of convection from the equator to India and the Bay of Bengal also need to be used with caution. Here, incorrectly representing extratropical-tropical interactions can give rise to 'apparent' northward propagation when none exists in association with the eastward propagating equatorial convection. It is necessary to use multiple cross-checking diagnostics to demonstrate the fidelity of the simulation of the BSISV

Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoon

The Earth's monsoon systems are the life-blood of more than two-thirds of the world's population through the rainfall they provide to the mainly agrarian societies they influence. More than 60 experts gathered to assess the current understanding of monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems simulating the monsoon

South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

In this paper we use the extensive integrations produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to examine the relationship between ENSO and the monsoon at interannual and decadal timescales. We begin with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the 20th century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.0, GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1, MRI, and MPI{_}ECHAM5) exhibit a robust ENSO-monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection, including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Nino3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection, including the spring predictability barrier which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore, only one of these three models (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2-3 months after the summer monsoon, which is partially attributable to the intensity of simulated El Nino itself. We find that the models that best capture the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker Circulation during El Nino events. The strength of the AIR-Nino3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal timescales. The overall magnitude and timescale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However, there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations, suggesting a lack of predictability of the decadal modulation of the monsoon-ENSO relationship. The analysis was repeated for each of the four models using results from integrations in which the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration was raised to twice pre-industrial values. From these ''best'' models in the double CO{sub 2} simulations there are increases in both the mean monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent (by 5-25%) and in its interannual variability (5-10%). We find for each model that the ENSO-monsoon correlation in the global warming runs is very similar to that in the 20th century runs, suggesting that the ENSO-monsoon connection will not weaken as global climate warms. This result, though plausible, needs to be taken with some caution because of the diversity in the simulation of ENSO variability in the coupled models we have analyzed. The implication of the present results for monsoon prediction are discussed