Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass

Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated. The contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term. Two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail: a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge. Both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools. For the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations, inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison. Many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes. This highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions

Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus

Diapause plays a key role in the life cycle of high latitude zooplankton. During diapause animals avoid starving in winter by living in deep waters where metabolism is lower and met by lipid reserves. Global warming is therefore expected to shorten the maximum potential diapause duration by increasing metabolic rates and by reducing body size and lipid reserves. This will alter the phenology of zooplankton, impact higher trophic levels and disrupt biological carbon pumps. Here we project the impacts of climate change on the key North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus under IPCC RCP 8.5. Potential diapause duration is modelled in relation to body size and overwintering temperature. The projections show pronounced geographic variations. Potential diapause duration reduces by more than 30% in the Western Atlantic, whereas in the key overwintering centre of the Norwegian Sea it changes only marginally. Surface temperature rises, which reduce body size and lipid reserves, will have a similar impact to deep water changes on diapause in many regions. Because deep water warming lags that at the surface, animals in the Labrador Sea could offset warming impacts by diapausing in deeper waters. However, the ability to control diapause depth may be limited

Development of welding techniques and filler metals for high strength aluminum alloys Annual summary report, 27 Jun. 1964 - 27 Jun. 1965

Welding techniques and filler metals for high strength aluminum alloy

How to decarbonise international shipping: Options for fuels, technologies and policies

International shipping provides 80–90% of global trade, but strict environmental regulations around NOX, SOX and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are set to cause major technological shifts. The pathway to achieving the international target of 50% GHG reduction by 2050 is unclear, but numerous promising options exist. This study provides a holistic assessment of these options and their combined potential to decarbonise international shipping, from a technology, environmental and policy perspective. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is reaching mainstream and provides 20–30% CO2 reductions whilst minimising SOX and other emissions. Costs are favourable, but GHG benefits are reduced by methane slip, which varies across engine types. Biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) could all decarbonise much further, but each faces significant barriers around their economics, resource potentials and public acceptability. Regarding efficiency measures, considerable fuel and GHG savings could be attained by slow-steaming, ship design changes and utilising renewable resources. There is clearly no single route and a multifaceted response is required for deep decarbonisation. The scale of this challenge is explored by estimating the combined decarbonisation potential of multiple options. Achieving 50% decarbonisation with LNG or electric propulsion would likely require 4 or more complementary efficiency measures to be applied simultaneously. Broadly, larger GHG reductions require stronger policy and may differentiate between short- and long-term approaches. With LNG being economically feasible and offering moderate environmental benefits, this may have short-term promise with minor policy intervention. Longer term, deeper decarbonisation will require strong financial incentives. Lowest-cost policy options should be fuel- or technology-agnostic, internationally applied and will require action now to ensure targets are met by 2050

Foehn winds in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctic: The origin of extreme warming events

Foehn winds resulting from topographic modification of airflow in the lee of mountain barriers are frequently experienced in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Strong foehn winds in the MDVs cause dramatic warming at onset and have significant effects on landscape forming processes; however, no detailed scientific investigation of foehn in the MDVs has been conducted. As a result, they are often misinterpreted as adiabatically warmed katabatic winds draining from the polar plateau. Herein observations from surface weather stations and numerical model output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during foehn events in the MDVs are presented. Results show that foehn winds in the MDVs are caused by topographic modification of south-southwesterly airflow, which is channeled into the valleys from higher levels. Modeling of a winter foehn event identifies mountain wave activity similar to that associated with midlatitude foehn winds. These events are found to be caused by strong pressure gradients over the mountain ranges of the MDVs related to synoptic-scale cyclones positioned off the coast of Marie Byrd Land. Analysis of meteorological records for 2006 and 2007 finds an increase of 10% in the frequency of foehn events in 2007 compared to 2006, which corresponds to stronger pressure gradients in the Ross Sea region. It is postulated that the intra- and interannual frequency and intensity of foehn events in the MDVs may therefore vary in response to the position and frequency of cyclones in the Ross Sea region

Numerical simulation of unconstrained cyclotron resonant maser emission

When a mainly rectilinear electron beam is subject to significant magnetic compression, conservation of magnetic moment results in the formation of a horseshoe shaped velocity distribution. It has been shown that such a distribution is unstable to cyclotron emission and may be responsible for the generation of Auroral Kilometric Radiation (AKR) an intense rf emission sourced at high altitudes in the terrestrial auroral magnetosphere. PiC code simulations have been undertaken to investigate the dynamics of the cyclotron emission process in the absence of cavity boundaries with particular consideration of the spatial growth rate, spectral output and rf conversion efficiency. Computations reveal that a well-defined cyclotron emission process occurs albeit with a low spatial growth rate compared to waveguide bounded simulations. The rf output is near perpendicular to the electron beam with a slight backward-wave character reflected in the spectral output with a well defined peak at 2.68GHz, just below the relativistic electron cyclotron frequency. The corresponding rf conversion efficiency of 1.1% is comparable to waveguide bounded simulations and consistent with the predictions of kinetic theory that suggest efficient, spectrally well defined radiation emission can be obtained from an electron horseshoe distribution in the absence of radiation boundaries.Publisher PD

Radiotherapy biobanking : current landscape, opportunities, challenges, and future aspirations

This work was supported by the National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Clinical and Translational Radiotherapy Research Working Group (CTRad), which was established in 2009 by six of the NCRI's funding partners. We gratefully acknowledge Carolyn Chan and Julie Stock (NCRI) for their assistance in collecting the responses to the questionnaire sent to CTRad membership. Open Access via the Wiley OA AgreementPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Direct activation of oestrogen receptor- α by interleukin-6 in primary cultures of breast cancer epithelial cells

Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is secreted by breast tumours and shows synergistic activity with 17β-oestradiol (E2), leading to increases in reductive 17β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase activity in breast cancer epithelial cells. However, the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. Using short-term epithelial cultures established from primary breast tumours, we have examined whether IL-6 could directly affect transcriptional activity of oestrogen reception α (ERα). Tumour epithelial cultures were established from 15 breast tumours, grown to 70% confluence and transiently transfected with a plasmid reporter containing the vitellogenin oestrogen response element and the luciferase coding sequence (ERE-TK-LUC). Following transfection, cells were incubated with E2, IL-6, the pure anti-oestrogen ZM 182780 or combinations of these substances for 48 h. Luciferase activity was then measured in cell lysates. E2 caused a dose-dependent increase in luciferase expression, causing a maximum threefold stimulation at 100 p M. In the presence of IL-6, transcriptional activity was increased by up to 2.5-fold in ERα+cultures (11/15). In combination with E2, synergistic effects were observed with increases in luciferase activity of up to sixfold over controls. This effect could be blocked by treatment with ZM 182780. Pre-incubation of cells with an antibody directed against the signalling component of IL-6, gp130, was ineffective in blocking the E2 response. This antibody reduced, but did not completely block the effect of IL-6 either alone or in combination with E2, suggesting cross-talk between the two signalling pathways. In conclusion, these results provide evidence for direct transcriptional activation of ERα by IL-6. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

High-coherence electron and ion bunches from laser-cooled atoms

XXVIII ICPEACCold atom electron and ion sources produce electron bunches and ion beams by photoionisation of laser cooled atoms. They offer high coherence and the potential for high brightness, with applications including ultrafast electron diffractive imaging of dynamic processes at the nanoscale. Here we present our cold atom electron/ion source, with an electron temperature of less than 10 K and a transverse coherence length of 10 nm. We also discuss experiments investigating space-charge effects with ions and the production of ultra-fast electron bunches using a femto-second laser. In the latter experiment we show that it is possible to produce both cold and fast electron bunches with our source.A. J. McCulloch, D. V. Sheludko, C. T. Putkunz, S. D. Saliba, D. J. Thompson, R. W. Speirs, D. Murphy, J. Torrance, B. M. Sparkes, and R. E. Scholte