149 research outputs found

    Disease transmission models for public health decision making: toward an approach for designing intervention strategies for Schistosomiasis japonica.

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    Mathematical models of disease transmission processes can serve as platforms for integration of diverse data, including site-specific information, for the purpose of designing strategies for minimizing transmission. A model describing the transmission of schistosomiasis is adapted to incorporate field data typically developed in disease control efforts in the mountainous regions of Sichuan Province in China, with the object of exploring the feasibility of model-based control strategies. The model is studied using computer simulation methods. Mechanistically based models of this sort typically have a large number of parameters that pose challenges in reducing parametric uncertainty to levels that will produce predictions sufficiently precise to discriminate among competing control options. We describe here an approach to parameter estimation that uses a recently developed statistical procedure called Bayesian melding to sequentially reduce parametric uncertainty as field data are accumulated over several seasons. Preliminary results of applying the approach to a historical data set in southwestern Sichuan are promising. Moreover, technologic advances using the global positioning system, remote sensing, and geographic information systems promise cost-effective improvements in the nature and quality of field data. This, in turn, suggests that the utility of the modeling approach will increase over time

    Using variable importance measures from causal inference to rank risk factors of schistosomiasis infection in a rural setting in China

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    Abstract Background Schistosomiasis infection, contracted through contact with contaminated water, is a global public health concern. In this paper we analyze data from a retrospective study reporting water contact and schistosomiasis infection status among 1011 individuals in rural China. We present semi-parametric methods for identifying risk factors through a comparison of three analysis approaches: a prediction-focused machine learning algorithm, a simple main-effects multivariable regression, and a semi-parametric variable importance (VI) estimate inspired by a causal population intervention parameter. Results The multivariable regression found only tool washing to be associated with the outcome, with a relative risk of 1.03 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.01-1.05. Three types of water contact were found to be associated with the outcome in the semi-parametric VI analysis: July water contact (VI estimate 0.16, 95% CI 0.11-0.22), water contact from tool washing (VI estimate 0.88, 95% CI 0.80-0.97), and water contact from rice planting (VI estimate 0.71, 95% CI 0.53-0.96). The July VI result, in particular, indicated a strong association with infection status - its causal interpretation implies that eliminating water contact in July would reduce the prevalence of schistosomiasis in our study population by 84%, or from 0.3 to 0.05 (95% CI 78%-89%). Conclusions The July VI estimate suggests possible within-season variability in schistosomiasis infection risk, an association not detected by the regression analysis. Though there are many limitations to this study that temper the potential for causal interpretations, if a high-risk time period could be detected in something close to real time, new prevention options would be opened. Most importantly, we emphasize that traditional regression approaches are usually based on arbitrary pre-specified models, making their parameters difficult to interpret in the context of real-world applications. Our results support the practical application of analysis approaches that, in contrast, do not require arbitrary model pre-specification, estimate parameters that have simple public health interpretations, and apply inference that considers model selection as a source of variation

    Quality of medication use in primary care - mapping the problem, working to a solution: a systematic review of the literature

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    Background: The UK, USA and the World Health Organization have identified improved patient safety in healthcare as a priority. Medication error has been identified as one of the most frequent forms of medical error and is associated with significant medical harm. Errors are the result of the systems that produce them. In industrial settings, a range of systematic techniques have been designed to reduce error and waste. The first stage of these processes is to map out the whole system and its reliability at each stage. However, to date, studies of medication error and solutions have concentrated on individual parts of the whole system. In this paper we wished to conduct a systematic review of the literature, in order to map out the medication system with its associated errors and failures in quality, to assess the strength of the evidence and to use approaches from quality management to identify ways in which the system could be made safer. Methods: We mapped out the medicines management system in primary care in the UK. We conducted a systematic literature review in order to refine our map of the system and to establish the quality of the research and reliability of the system. Results: The map demonstrated that the proportion of errors in the management system for medicines in primary care is very high. Several stages of the process had error rates of 50% or more: repeat prescribing reviews, interface prescribing and communication and patient adherence. When including the efficacy of the medicine in the system, the available evidence suggested that only between 4% and 21% of patients achieved the optimum benefit from their medication. Whilst there were some limitations in the evidence base, including the error rate measurement and the sampling strategies employed, there was sufficient information to indicate the ways in which the system could be improved, using management approaches. The first step to improving the overall quality would be routine monitoring of adherence, clinical effectiveness and hospital admissions. Conclusion: By adopting the whole system approach from a management perspective we have found where failures in quality occur in medication use in primary care in the UK, and where weaknesses occur in the associated evidence base. Quality management approaches have allowed us to develop a coherent change and research agenda in order to tackle these, so far, fairly intractable problems

    High-Dose Mannose-Binding Lectin Therapy for Ebola Virus Infection

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    Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) targets diverse microorganisms for phagocytosis and complement-mediated lysis by binding specific surface glycans. Although recombinant human MBL (rhMBL) trials have focused on reconstitution therapy, safety studies have identified no barriers to its use at higher levels. Ebola viruses cause fatal hemorrhagic fevers for which no treatment exists and that are feared as potential biothreat agents. We found that mice whose rhMBL serum concentrations were increased ≥7-fold above average human levels survived otherwise fatal Ebola virus infections and became immune to virus rechallenge. Because Ebola glycoproteins potentially model other glycosylated viruses, rhMBL may offer a novel broad-spectrum antiviral approach

    The Impact of Schistosoma japonicum Infection and Treatment on Ultrasound-Detectable Morbidity: A Five-Year Cohort Study in Southwest China

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    Schistosomiasis is a water-borne parasite that infects approximately 200 million people worldwide. Schistosoma japonicum, found in Asia, causes disease by releasing eggs in the liver, leading to fibrosis, anemia, and, in children, impaired growth. Ultrasound can assess liver pathology from schistosomiasis; however more information is needed to evaluate the relevance of standard ultrasound measures. We followed 578 people for up to five years, testing for schistosomiasis infection and conducting ultrasound examinations to assess the relationship between infection and seven ultrasound measures and to evaluate the impact of treatment with anti-schistosomiasis chemotherapy (praziquantel) on morbidity. All infections were promptly treated. Fibrosis of the liver parenchyma, pathology unique to S. japonicum, was associated with schistosomiasis infection, and was most advanced in people with high worm burdens. Liver fibrosis declined significantly following treatment, but reversal of severe liver fibrosis was rare. Other ultrasound measures were not consistently related to schistosomiasis infection or treatment. These findings suggest parenchymal fibrosis can be used to measure morbidity attributable to S. japonicum and evaluate the impact of disease control efforts. Because reversal of severe fibrosis was limited, disease control efforts will be most effective if they can not only treat existing infections but also prevent new infections

    Multiplex Immunoassay of Lower Genital Tract Mucosal Fluid from Women Attending an Urban STD Clinic Shows Broadly Increased IL1ß and Lactoferrin

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    BACKGROUND: More than one million new cases of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occur each day. The immune responses and inflammation induced by STDs and other frequent non-STD microbial colonizations (i.e. Candida and bacterial vaginosis) can have serious pathologic consequences in women including adverse pregnancy outcomes, infertility and increased susceptibility to infection by other pathogens. Understanding the types of immune mediators that are elicited in the lower genital tract by these infections/colonizations can give important insights into the innate and adaptive immune pathways that are activated and lead to strategies for preventing pathologic effects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 32 immune mediators were measured by multiplexed immunoassays to assess the immune environment of the lower genital tract mucosa in 84 women attending an urban STD clinic. IL-3, IL-1ß, VEGF, angiogenin, IL-8, ß2Defensin and ß3Defensin were detected in all subjects, Interferon-α was detected in none, while the remaining mediators were detected in 40% to 93% of subjects. Angiogenin, VEGF, FGF, IL-9, IL-7, lymphotoxin-α and IL-3 had not been previously reported in genital mucosal fluid from women. Strong correlations were observed between levels of TNF-α, IL-1ß and IL-6, between chemokines IP-10 and MIG and between myeloperoxidase, IL-8 and G-CSF. Samples from women with any STD/colonization had significantly higher levels of IL-8, IL-3, IL-7, IL-1ß, lactoferrin and myeloperoxidase. IL-1ß and lactoferrin were significantly increased in gonorrhea, Chlamydia, cervicitis, bacterial vaginosis and trichomoniasis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These studies show that mucosal fluid in general appears to be an environment that is rich in immune mediators. Importantly, IL-1ß and lactoferrin are biomarkers for STDs/colonizations providing insights into immune responses and pathogenesis at this mucosal site
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