A Statistical Approach to Evaluate the Tephra Deposit and Ash Concentration from Puff Model Forecasts

In this paper we present a new statistical approach able to provide tephra deposit load and ash concentration using PUFF, a lagrangian model widely used to forecast volcanic ash dispersal during volcanic crisis. We perform a parametric study in order to analyze the influence of each input parameter on model outputs. For this test, we simulate two eruptive scenarios like to the 2001 (Scenario 1) and 1998 (Scenario 2) Etna eruptions using high resolution weather data and a domain of 170 x 170 km. Results show that for both scenarios, we are able to calculate the tephra deposit load and ash concentration but the use of millions of particles is required. Specifically, up to 33 and 220 millions of particles were necessary to accurately predict the tephra deposit and ash concentration in air, respectively. This is approximately two orders of magnitude larger than values typically considered running PUFF. The parametric study shows that the horizontal diffusion coefficient, the time step of the simulations, the topography and the standard deviation of the particle distribution greatly affect the model outputs. We also validate the model by best fit procedures. Results show a good comparison between field data of the 2001 Etna eruption and PUFF simulations, being inside 5 and 1/5 times the observed data, comparable with results of Eulerian models. This work will allow to reliably outlining the areas of contaminated airspace using PUFF or any other lagrangian model in order to define the No Fly Zone and ensure the safety to aviation operations as required after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption

High Power Test of RF Separator for 12 GEV Upgrade of CEBAF at Jefferson Lab

CEBAF at JLab is in the process of an energy upgrade from 6 GeV to 12 GeV. The existing setup of the RF separator cavities in the 5th pass will not be adequate enough to extract the highest energy (11 GeV) beam to any two existing halls (A, B or C) while simultaneously delivering to the new hall D in the case of the proposed 12 GeV upgrade of the machine. To restore this capability, several options including the extension of existing normal conducting (NC) and a potential 499 MHz TEM-type superconducting (SC) cavity design have been investigated using computer simulations. Detailed numerical studies suggest that six 2-cell normal conducting structures meet the requirements; each 2-cell structure will require up to 4 kW RF input power in contrast with the current nominal operating power of 1.0 to 2.0 kW. A high power test to 4 kW is required to confirm the cavity’s operate-ability at these elevated gradient and power levels. We have assembled a 2-cell cavity, pumped down to 2.0·10-9 torr using ion pump and confirmed the low level RF performance. A high power test is in progress and will be completed soon. The detailed numerical and experimental results will be discussed in the paper

Beam Dynamics Studies of Parallel-Bar Deflecting Cavities

We have performed three-dimensional simulations of beam dynamics for parallel-bar transverse electromagnetic mode (TEM) type RF separators: normal- and superconducting. The compact size of these cavities as compared to conventional TM110 type structures is more attractive particularly at low frequency. Highly concentrated electromagnetic fields between the parallel bars provide strong electrical stability to the beam for any mechanical disturbance. An array of eight 2-cell normal conducting cavities or a one- or two-cell superconducting structure are enough to produce the required vertical displacement at the Lambertson magnet. Both the normal and superconducting structures show very small emittance dilution due to the vertical kick of the beam

Beam Dynamics Studies for Transverse Electromagnetic Mode Type rf Deflectors

We have performed three-dimensional simulations of beam dynamics for transverse electromagnetic mode (TEM) type rf deflectors: normal and superconducting. The compact size of these cavities as compared to the conventional TM110 type structures is more attractive particularly at low frequency. Highly concentrated electromagnetic fields between the parallel bars provide strong electrical stability to the beam for any mechanical disturbance. An array of six 2-cell normal conducting cavities or a single cell superconducting structure is enough to produce the required vertical displacement at the target point. Both the normal and superconducting structures show very small emittance dilution due to the vertical kick of the beam

Science Requirements and Conceptual Design for a Polarized Medium Energy Electron-Ion Collider at Jefferson Lab

This report presents a brief summary of the science opportunities and program of a polarized medium energy electron-ion collider at Jefferson Lab and a comprehensive description of the conceptual design of such a collider based on the CEBAF electron accelerator facility.Comment: 160 pages, ~93 figures This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Physics, under Contract No. DE-AC05-06OR23177, DE-AC02-06CH11357, DE-AC05-060R23177, and DESC0005823. The U.S. Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce this manuscript for U.S. Government purpose

Effects of gastroprotectant drugs for the prevention and treatment of peptic ulcer disease and its complications: a meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background: Gastroprotectant drugs are used for the prevention and treatment of peptic ulcer disease and might reduce its associated complications, but reliable estimates of the effects of gastroprotectants in different clinical settings are scarce. We aimed to examine the effects of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs), prostaglandin analogues, and histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) in different clinical circumstances by doing meta-analyses of tabular data from all relevant unconfounded randomised trials of gastroprotectant drugs. Background: Gastroprotectant drugs are used for the prevention and treatment of peptic ulcer disease and might reduce its associated complications, but reliable estimates of the effects of gastroprotectants in different clinical settings are scarce. We aimed to examine the effects of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs), prostaglandin analogues, and histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) in different clinical circumstances by doing meta-analyses of tabular data from all relevant unconfounded randomised trials of gastroprotectant drugs. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and Embase from Jan 1, 1950, to Dec 31, 2015, to identify unconfounded, randomised trials of a gastroprotectant drug (defined as a PPI, prostaglandin analogue, or H2RA) versus control, or versus another gastroprotectant. Two independent researchers reviewed the search results and extracted the prespecified outcomes and key characteristics for each trial. We did meta-analyses of the effects of gastroprotectant drugs on ulcer development, bleeding, and mortality overall, according to the class of gastroprotectant, and according to the individual drug within a gastroprotectant class. Findings: We identified comparisons of gastroprotectant versus control in 849 trials (142 485 participants): 580 prevention trials (110 626 participants), 233 healing trials (24 033 participants), and 36 trials for the treatment of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (7826 participants). Comparisons of one gastroprotectant drug versus another were available in 345 trials (64 905 participants), comprising 160 prevention trials (32 959 participants), 167 healing trials (28 306 participants), and 18 trials for treatment of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (3640 participants). The median number of patients in each trial was 78 (IQR 44·0–210·5) and the median duration was 1·4 months (0·9–2·8). In prevention trials, gastroprotectant drugs reduced development of endoscopic ulcers (odds ratio [OR] 0·27, 95% CI 0·25–0·29; p<0·0001), symptomatic ulcers (0·25, 0·22–0·29; p<0·0001), and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (0·40, 0·32–0·50; p<0·0001), but did not significantly reduce mortality (0·85, 0·69–1·04; p=0·11). Larger proportional reductions in upper gastrointestinal bleeding were observed for PPIs than for other gastroprotectant drugs (PPIs 0·21, 99% CI 0·12–0·36; prostaglandin analogues 0·63, 0·35–1·12; H2RAs 0·49, 0·30–0·80; phet=0·0005). Gastroprotectant drugs were effective in preventing bleeding irrespective of the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (phet=0·56). In healing trials, gastroprotectants increased endoscopic ulcer healing (3·49, 95% CI 3·28–3·72; p<0·0001), with PPIs more effective (5·22, 99% CI 4·00–6·80) than prostaglandin analogues (2·27, 1·91–2·70) and H2RAs (3·80, 3·44–4·20; phet<0·0001). In trials among patients with acute bleeding, gastroprotectants reduced further bleeding (OR 0·68, 95% CI 0·60–0·78; p<0·0001), blood transfusion (0·75, 0·65–0·88; p=0·0003), further endoscopic intervention (0·56, 0·45–0·70; p<0·0001), and surgery (0·72, 0·61–0·84; p<0·0001), but did not significantly reduce mortality (OR 0·90, 0·72–1·11; p=0·31). PPIs had larger protective effects than did H2RAs for further bleeding (phet=0·0107) and blood transfusion (phet=0·0130). Interpretation: Gastroprotectants, in particular PPIs, reduce the risk of peptic ulcer disease and its complications and promote healing of peptic ulcers in a wide range of clinical circumstances. However, this meta-analysis might have overestimated the benefits owing to small study bias

Improvement of ash plume monitoring, modeling and hazard assessment in the MED-SUV project

Volcanic ash clouds produced by explosive eruptions represent a strong problem for civil aviation, road transportation and other human activities. Since Etna volcano produced in the last 35 years more the 200 explosive eruptions of small and medium size. The INGV, liable for its volcano monitoring, developed since 2006 a specific system for forecasting and monitoring Etna’s volcanic ash plumes in collaboration with several national and international institutions. Between 12 January 2011 and 31 December 2013 Etna produced forty-six basaltic lava fountains. Every paroxysm produced an eruption column ranging from a few up to eleven kilometers of height above sea level. The ash cloud contaminated the controlled airspace (CTR) of Catania and Reggio Calabria airports and caused tephra fallout on eastern Sicily sometime disrupting the operations of these airports. In order to give prompt and detailed warnings to the Aviation and Civil Protection authorities, ash plumes monitoring at Osservatorio Etneo, the INGV department in Catania, is carried out using multispectral (from visible to infrared) satellite and ground-based video-surveillance images; seismic and infrasound signals processed in real-time, a Doppler RADAR (Voldorad IIB) able to detect the eruption column in all weather conditions and a LIDAR (AMPLE) for retrieving backscattering and depolarization values of the ash clouds. Forecasting is performed running tephra dispersal models using weather forecast data, and then plotting results on maps published on a dedicated website. 24/7 Control Room operators were able to timely nform Aviation and Civil Protection operators for an effective aviation safety management. A variety of multidisciplinary activities are planned in the MED-SUV project with reference to volcanic ash observations and studies. These include: 1) physical and analogue laboratory experiments on ash dispersal and aggregation; 2) integration of satellite data (e.g. METEOSAT, MODIS) and ground- based measurements (e.g., RADAR, LIDAR) of Etna’s volcanic plumes to quantify mass eruption rate, grain-size distribution at source, and ash cloud concentration; 3) improvement of tools and automatic procedures for the short-term forecasting of volcanic ash dispersal by adopting a multi-model and multi-scenario approach; 4) development of short-term forecasting tools able to use direct measurements of the plume and ash cloud in almost real time (now-casting); 5) development of long-term probabilistic ash fallout maps at the supersite volcanoes.PublishedVienna, Austria4V. Vulcani e ambienteope

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on secondary care for cardiovascular disease in the UK: an electronic health record analysis across three countries

\ua9 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. Background: Although morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 have been widely reported, the indirect effects of the pandemic beyond 2020 on other major diseases and health service activity have not been well described. Methods and results: Analyses used national administrative electronic hospital records in England, Scotland, and Wales for 2016-21. Admissions and procedures during the pandemic (2020-21) related to six major cardiovascular conditions [acute coronary syndrome (ACS), heart failure (HF), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), aortic aneurysm (AA), and venous thromboembolism(VTE)] were compared with the annual average in the pre-pandemic period (2016-19). Differences were assessed by time period and urgency of care. In 2020, there were 31 064 (-6%) fewer hospital admissions [14 506 (-4%) fewer emergencies, 16 560 (-23%) fewer elective admissions] compared with 2016-19 for the six major cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) combined. The proportional reduction in admissions was similar in all three countries. Overall, hospital admissions returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Elective admissions remained substantially below expected levels for almost all conditions in all three countries [-10 996 (-15%) fewer admissions]. However, these reductions were offset by higher than expected total emergency admissions [+25 878 (+6%) higher admissions], notably for HF and stroke in England, and for VTE in all three countries. Analyses for procedures showed similar temporal variations to admissions. Conclusion: The present study highlights increasing emergency cardiovascular admissions during the pandemic, in the context of a substantial and sustained reduction in elective admissions and procedures. This is likely to increase further the demands on cardiovascular services over the coming years

Conceptual Design of a Polarized Medium Energy Electron-Ion Collider at JLab

A medium energy electron-ion collider is envisioned as the primary future of the JLab nuclear science program beyond the 12 GeV upgraded CEBAF. The present conceptual design selects a ring-ring collider option, covers a CM energy range up to 65 GeV for collisions of polarized electrons with polarized light ions or unpolarized light to heavy ions, and reaches a luminosity at above 1034 cm-2s-1 per detector over multiple interaction points. This paper presents a brief description of the current conceptual design of the accelerator