Frontal Structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the South Indian Ocean

Using recently published atlas data [Olbers et al., 1992] and the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM) [Webb et al., 1991], an investigation has been conducted into the structure of the frontal jets centered around the region of the islands of Crozet (46°27'S, 52°0'E) and Kerguelen (48°15'S, 69°10'E) in the south Indian Ocean. Geostrophic current velocities and transports were calculated from the temperature and salinity fields available from the atlas and compared with results from FRAM and previous studies. We have identified the Agulhas Return Front (ARF) and the Subtropical Front (STF), as well as the following fronts of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC): the Subantarctic Front (SAP), the Polar Front (PF), and the Southern ACC Front (SACCF), from temperature and salinity characteristics and from geostrophic currents. This analysis of model and atlas data indicates that the jets associated with the ARF, STF, and SAF are topograpliically steered into a unique frontal system north of the islands, having some of the largest temperature and salinity gradients anywhere in the world ocean. The frontal jet associated with the ARF is detectable up to 75°E and has associated with it several northward branching jets. The PF bifurcates in the region of the Ob'Lena (Conrad) seamount; subsurface and surface expressions are identified, separated by as much as 8° of latitude immediately west of the Kerguelen Plateau. The surface expression, carrying the bulk of the transport (~65 Sv), is steered through the col in the Kerguelen Plateau at 56°S, 6° south of the latitude normally associated with the PF at this meridian. On crossing the plateau it rejoins the subsurface expression. In the south, passing eastward along the margin of the Antarctic continent and through the Princess Elizabeth Trough, a frontal jet is identified transporting up to 35 Sv, believed to be the SACCF [Orsi et al., 1995], placing the southern extent of the ACC in the region at 67°S. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union

Ensemble of global climate simulations for temperature in historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios from HadAM4

Large ensembles of global temperature are provided for three climate scenarios: historical (2006–16), 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Each scenario has 700 members (70 simulations per year for ten years) of 6-hourly mean temperatures at a resolution of 0.833° ´ 0.556° (longitude ´ latitude) over the land surface. The data was generated using the climateprediction.net (CPDN) climate simulation environment, to run HadAM4 Atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (AGCM) from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. Biases in simulated temperature were identified and corrected using quantile mapping with reference temperature data from ERA5. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository as NetCDF V4 files

Attributing human influence on July 2017 Chinese heatwave: the influence of sea-surface temperatures

On 21st-25thJuly 2017 a record breaking heatwave occurred in Central Eastern China affecting nearly half of the national population and causing severe impacts on public health, agriculture and infrastructure. Here, we compare attribution results from two UK Met Office Hadley Centre models, HadGEM3-GA6 and weather@home (HadAM3P driving 50km HadRM3P). Within HadGEM3-GA6 July 2017-like heatwaves were unequaled in the ensemble representing the world without human influences. Such heatwaves became approximately a 1 in 50 year event and increased by a factor of 4.8 (5-95% range of 3.1 to 8.0) in weather@home as a result of human activity. Considering the risk ratio (RR) for the full range of return periods shows a discrepancy at all return times between the two model results. Within weather@home a range of different counterfactual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns were used whereas HadGEM3-GA6 used a single estimate. The global mean difference in SST (between factual and counterfactual simulations) is shown to be related to the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) location parameter and consequently the RR, especially for return periods less than 50 years. It is suggested that a suitable range of SST patterns are used for future attribution studies to ensure that this source of uncertainty is represented within the simulations and subsequent attribution results. It is shown that the risk change between factual and counterfactual simulations is not purely a simple shift in the distribution (i.e. change in GEV location parameter). For return periods greater than 50 years the GEV shape parameter is found to strongly influence the RR determined with the GEV scale parameter affecting only the most severe events

Change in cooling degree days with global mean temperature rise increasing from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C

Limiting global mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C is increasingly out of reach. Here we show the impact on global cooling demand in moving from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C of global warming. African countries have the highest increase in cooling requirements. Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Norway (traditionally unprepared for heat) will sufer the largest relative cooling demand surges. Immediate and unprecedented adaptation interventions are required worldwide to be prepared for a hotter world

Epigenetic Influences on Associations between Air Pollutants and Lung Function in Elderly Men: The Normative Aging Study

Background: Few studies have been performed on pulmonary effects of air pollution in the elderly—a vulnerable population with low reserve capacity—and mechanisms and susceptibility factors for potential effects are unclear. Objectives: We evaluated the lag structure of air pollutant associations with lung function and potential effect modification by DNA methylation (< or ≥ median) at 26 individual CpG sites in nine candidate genes in a well-characterized cohort of elderly men. Methods: We measured forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), and blood DNA methylation one to four times between 1999 and 2009 in 776 men from the Normative Aging Study. Air pollution was measured at fixed monitors 4 hr to 28 days before lung function tests. We used linear mixed-effects models to estimate the main effects of air pollutants and effect modification by DNA methylation. Results: An interquartile range (IQR) increase in subchronic exposure (3 to 28 days cumulated), but not in acute exposure (during the previous 4 hr, or the current or previous day), to black carbon, total and nontraffic particles with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide was associated with a 1–5% decrease in FVC and FEV1 (p < 0.05). Slope estimates were greater for FVC than FEV1, and increased with cumulative exposure. The estimates slopes for air pollutants (28 days cumulated) were higher in participants with low (< median) methylation in TLR2 at position 2 and position 5 and high (≥ median) methylation in GCR. Conclusions: Subchronic exposure to traffic-related pollutants was associated with significantly reduced lung function in the elderly; nontraffic pollutants (particles, ozone) had weaker associations. Epigenetic mechanisms related to inflammation and immunity may influence these associations. Citation: Lepeule J, Bind MAC, Baccarelli AA, Koutrakis P, Tarantini L, Litonjua A, Sparrow D, Vokonas P, Schwartz JD. 2014. Epigenetic influences on associations between air pollutants and lung function in elderly men: the Normative Aging Study. Environ Health Perspect 122:566–572; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.120645

Sexual Robots: The Social-Relational Approach and the Concept of Subjective Reference

In this paper we propose the notion of “subjective reference” as a conceptual tool that explains how and why human-robot sexual interactions could reframe users approach to human-human sexual interactions. First, we introduce the current debate about Sexual Robotics, situated in the wider discussion about Social Robots, stating the urgency of a regulative framework. We underline the importance of a social-relational approach, mostly concerned about Social Robots impact in human social structures. Then, we point out the absence of a precise framework conceptualizing why Social Robots, and Sexual Robots in particular, may modify users’ sociality and relationality. Within a psychological framework, we propose to consider Sexual Robots as “subjective references”, namely objects symbolically referring to human subjects: we claim that, for the user experience, every action performed upon a Sexual Robot is symbolically directed toward a human subject, including degrading and violent practices. This shifting mechanism may transfer the user relational setting from human-robot interactions to human-human interactions

Lead Concentrations in Relation to Multiple Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Disease: The Normative Aging Study

Background: Lead exposure has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in animal and human studies. However, the mechanisms of action have not been fully elucidated. We therefore examined the relationship between lead and multiple biomarkers of CVD

Regression, developmental trajectory and associated problems in disorders in the autism spectrum: the SNAP study

We report rates of regression and associated findings in a population derived group of 255 children aged 9-14 years, participating in a prevalence study of autism spectrum disorders (ASD); 53 with narrowly defined autism, 105 with broader ASD and 97 with non-ASD neurodevelopmental problems, drawn from those with special educational needs within a population of 56,946 children. Language regression was reported in 30% with narrowly defined autism, 8% with broader ASD and less than 3% with developmental problems without ASD. A smaller group of children were identified who underwent a less clear setback. Regression was associated with higher rates of autistic symptoms and a deviation in developmental trajectory. Regression was not associated with epilepsy or gastrointestinal problems

Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects

The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 X 10-8) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.0131028) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ~0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9–1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function

Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the ‘equivalent parameter perturbations’, which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies