Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil-fuel and biomass-burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of brown carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of 2. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with the largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 Wm[superscript −2] (0.08 Wm[superscript −2] from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 Wm[superscript −2] from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 Wm[superscript −2], with an additional +0.11 Wm[superscript −2] of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of −80%/+140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2–1.0 Wm[superscript −2] range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 Wm[superscript −2] DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime (including the effect on the vertical profile) and the incorrect attribution of BrC absorption to BC.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program (Grant RD-83503301

Atmospheric emissions from the deepwater Horizon spill constrain air-water partitioning, hydrocarbon fate, and leak rate

The fate of deepwater releases of gas and oil mixtures is initially determined by solubility and volatility of individual hydrocarbon species; these attributes determine partitioning between air and water. Quantifying this partitioning is necessary to constrain simulations of gas and oil transport, to predict marine bioavailability of different fractions of the gas-oil mixture, and to develop a comprehensive picture of the fate of leaked hydrocarbons in the marine environment. Analysis of airborne atmospheric data shows massive amounts (∼258,000 kg/day) of hydrocarbons evaporating promptly from the Deepwater Horizon spill; these data collected during two research flights constrain air-water partitioning, thus bioavailability and fate, of the leaked fluid. This analysis quantifies the fraction of surfacing hydrocarbons that dissolves in the water column (∼33% by mass), the fraction that does not dissolve, and the fraction that evaporates promptly after surfacing (∼14% by mass). We do not quantify the leaked fraction lacking a surface expression; therefore, calculation of atmospheric mass fluxes provides a lower limit to the total hydrocarbon leak rate of 32,600 to 47,700 barrels of fluid per day, depending on reservoir fluid composition information. This study demonstrates a new approach for rapid-response airborne assessment of future oil spills. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

Global Budget and Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon Aerosol: Constraints from Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Observations across the Pacific

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to interpret aircraft curtain observations of black carbon (BC) aerosol over the Pacific from 85°N to 67°S during the 2009–2011 HIAPER (High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns. Observed concentrations are very low, implying much more efficient scavenging than is usually implemented in models. Our simulation with a global source of $6.5 Tg a^{−1}$ and mean tropospheric lifetime of 4.2 days (versus 6.8 ± 1.8 days for the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) models) successfully simulates BC concentrations in source regions and continental outflow and captures the principal features of the HIPPO data but is still higher by a factor of 2 (1.48 for column loads) over the Pacific. It underestimates BC absorbing aerosol optical depths (AAODs) from the Aerosol Robotic Network by 32% on a global basis. Only 8.7% of global BC loading in GEOS-Chem is above 5 km, versus 21 ± 11% for the AeroCom models, with important implications for radiative forcing estimates. Our simulation yields a global BC burden of 77 Gg, a global mean BC AAOD of 0.0017, and a top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing (TOA DRF) of $0.19 W m^{−2}$, with a range of $0.17–0.31 W m^{−2}$ based on uncertainties in the BC atmospheric distribution. Our TOA DRF is lower than previous estimates $(0.27 \pm 0.06 W m^{−2}$ in AeroCom, $0.65–0.9 W m^{−2}$ in more recent studies). We argue that these previous estimates are biased high because of excessive BC concentrations over the oceans and in the free troposphere.Engineering and Applied Science

Efficacy of novel recombinant fowlpox vaccine against recent Mexican H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus

Since 2012, H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has produced negative economic and animal welfare impacts on poultry in central Mexico. In the present study, chickens were vaccinated with two different recombinant fowlpox virus vaccines (rFPV-H7/3002 with 2015 H7 hemagglutinin [HA] gene insert, and rFPV-H7/2155 with 2002 H7 HA gene insert), and were then challenged three weeks later with H7N3 HPAI virus (A/chicken/Jalisco/CPA-37905/2015). The rFPV-H7/3002 vaccine conferred 100% protection against mortality and morbidity, and significantly reduced virus shed titers from the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts. In contrast, 100% of sham and rFPV-H7/2155 vaccinated birds shed virus at higher titers and died within 4 days. Pre- (15/20) and post- (20/20) challenge serum of birds vaccinated with rFPV-H7/3002 had antibodies detectable by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay using challenge virus antigen. However, only a few birds (3/20) in the rFPV-H7/2155 vaccinated group had antibodies that reacted against the challenge strain but all birds had antibodies that reacted against the homologous vaccine antigen (A/turkey/Virginia/SEP-66/2002) (20/20). One possible explanation for differences in vaccines efficacy is the antigenic drift between circulating viruses and vaccines. Molecular analysis demonstrated that the Mexican H7N3 strains have continued to rapidly evolve since 2012. In addition, we identified in silico three potential new N-glycosylation sites on the globular head of the H7 HA of A/chicken/Jalisco/CPA-37905/2015 challenge virus, which were absent in 2012 H7N3 outbreak virus. Our results suggested that mutations in the HA antigenic sites including increased glycosylation sites, accumulated in the new circulating Mexican H7 HPAIV strains, altered the recognition of neutralizing antibodies from the older vaccine strain rFPV-H7/2155. Therefore, the protective efficacy of novel rFPV-H7/3002 against recent outbreak Mexican H7N3 HPAIV confirms the importance of frequent updating of vaccines seed strains for long-term effective control of H7 HPAI virus

Cloud condensation nuclei as a modulator of ice processes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds

We propose that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are important for modulating ice formation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, through modification of the droplet size distribution. Aircraft observations from the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) study in northern Alaska in April 2008 allow for identification and characterization of both aerosol and trace gas pollutants, which are then compared with cloud microphysical properties. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the concentration of precipitating ice particles (>400 μm) is correlated with the concentration of large droplets (>30 μm). We are further able to link the observed microphysical conditions to aerosol pollution, originating mainly from long range transport of biomass burning emissions. The case studies demonstrate that polluted mixed-phase clouds have narrower droplet size distributions and contain 1–2 orders of magnitude fewer precipitating ice particles than clean clouds at the same temperature. This suggests an aerosol indirect effect leading to greater cloud lifetime, greater cloud emissivity, and reduced precipitation. This result is opposite to the glaciation indirect effect, whereby polluted clouds are expected to precipitate more readily due to an increase in the concentration of particles acting as ice nuclei