Overestimating Outcome Rates: Statistical Estimation When Reliability Is Suboptimal

To demonstrate how failure to account for measurement error in an outcome (dependent) variable can lead to significant estimation errors and to illustrate ways to recognize and avoid these errors. Data Sources . Medical literature and simulation models. Study Design/Data Collection . Systematic review of the published and unpublished epidemiological literature on the rate of preventable hospital deaths and statistical simulation of potential estimation errors based on data from these studies. Principal Findings . Most estimates of the rate of preventable deaths in U.S. hospitals rely upon classifying cases using one to three physician reviewers (implicit review). Because this method has low to moderate reliability, estimates based on statistical methods that do not account for error in the measurement of a “preventable death” can result in significant overestimation. For example, relying on a majority rule rating with three reviewers per case (reliability ∼0.45 for the average of three reviewers) can result in a 50–100 percent overestimation compared with an estimate based upon a reliably measured outcome (e.g., by using 50 reviewers per case). However, there are statistical methods that account for measurement error that can produce much more accurate estimates of outcome rates without requiring a large number of measurements per case. Conclusion . The statistical principles discussed in this case study are critically important whenever one seeks to estimate the proportion of cases belonging to specific categories (such as estimating how many patients have inadequate blood pressure control or identifying high-cost or low-quality physicians). When the true outcome rate is low (<20 percent), using an outcome measure that has low-to-moderate reliability will generally result in substantially overestimating the proportion of the population having the outcome unless statistical methods that adjust for measurement error are used.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74896/1/j.1475-6773.2006.00661.x.pd

Determinants of online shopping among tertiary students in Ghana: An extended technology acceptance model

The increasing penetration rate of the internet and technology in the world is quickly promoting online shopping. This has been fueled by growing innovations in the telecommunication and financial sector in an attempt to depeen financial inclusion. Innovations such as mobile money payments systems by mobile telephony companies have contributed to the continuous growth in online shopping amidst and the new generation of consumers who desire richer experiences. This study sought to identify the determinants of online shopping behaviour among tertiary students through the lens of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The study proposed a revised TAM that integrated perceived cost and perceived risk to investigate what determined students online shopping intention and actual use. The survey involved a sample of 580 undergraduate students. The statistical technique used was Structural Equation Modelling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS). The results showed that effect of ease of use on usefulness was very significant as same has been predicted by the Technology Acceptance Model. Among the independent variables, perceived cost (PC) was found to be the most significant factor affecting actual use (AU) of online shopping among students, nonetheless, perceived cost (PC) had no significant effect on purchase intention (PI). Perceived risk (PR) had no significant effect on actual use (AU) however, had a significant effect on purchase intention (PI). The study recommends online sellers to make online shopping efficient and less costive with assured safety and security of transactions as well as the product itself. A set of shopping platform could even be created specifically to give discounts and other offers to students. It also recommends future studies to employ additional determining factors such as the type of product/service, convenience and personal/demographic and geographic factors as influential to students’ online purchasing behaviour. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license

Comparative Effectiveness Research: An Empirical Study of Trials Registered in ClinicalTrials.gov

Background The $1.1 billion investment in comparative effectiveness research will reshape the evidence-base supporting decisions about treatment effectiveness, safety, and cost. Defining the current prevalence and characteristics of comparative effectiveness (CE) research will enable future assessments of the impact of this program. Methods We conducted an observational study of clinical trials addressing priority research topics defined by the Institute of Medicine and conducted in the US between 2007 and 2010. Trials were identified in ClinicalTrials.gov. Main outcome measures were the prevalence of comparative effectiveness research, nature of comparators selected, funding sources, and impact of these factors on results. Results 231 (22.3%; 95% CI 19.8%–24.9%) studies were CE studies and 804 (77.7%; 95% CI, 75.1%–80.2%) were non-CE studies, with 379 (36.6%; 95% CI, 33.7%–39.6%) employing a placebo control and 425 (41.1%; 95% CI, 38.1%–44.1%) no control. The most common treatments examined in CE studies were drug interventions (37.2%), behavioral interventions (28.6%), and procedures (15.6%). Study findings were favorable for the experimental treatment in 34.8% of CE studies and greater than twice as many (78.6%) non-CE studies (P<0.001). CE studies were more likely to receive government funding (P = 0.003) and less likely to receive industry funding (P = 0.01), with 71.8% of CE studies primarily funded by a noncommercial source. The types of interventions studied differed based on funding source, with 95.4% of industry trials studying a drug or device. In addition, industry-funded CE studies were associated with the fewest pediatric subjects (P<0.001), the largest anticipated sample size (P<0.001), and the shortest study duration (P<0.001). Conclusions In this sample of studies examining high priority areas for CE research, less than a quarter are CE studies and the majority is supported by government and nonprofits. The low prevalence of CE research exists across CE studies with a broad array of interventions and characteristics.National Library of Medicine (U.S.) (5G08LM009778)National Institutes of Health (U.S.

On deciding to have a lobotomy:either lobotomies were justified or decisions under risk should not always seek to maximise expected utility

In the 1940s and 1950s thousands of lobotomies were performed on people with mental disorders. These operations were known to be dangerous, but thought to offer great hope. Nowadays, the lobotomies of the 1940s and 1950s are widely condemned. The consensus is that the practitioners who employed them were, at best, misguided enthusiasts, or, at worst, evil. In this paper I employ standard decision theory to understand and assess shifts in the evaluation of lobotomy. Textbooks of medical decision making generally recommend that decisions under risk are made so as to maximise expected utility (MEU) I show that using this procedure suggests that the 1940s and 1950s practice of psychosurgery was justifiable. In making sense of this finding we have a choice: Either we can accept that psychosurgery was justified, in which case condemnation of the lobotomists is misplaced. Or, we can conclude that the use of formal decision procedures, such as MEU, is problematic

Accuracy of advanced versus strictly conventional 12-lead ECG for detection and screening of coronary artery disease, left ventricular hypertrophy and left ventricular systolic dysfunction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Resting conventional 12-lead ECG has low sensitivity for detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and low positive predictive value (PPV) for prediction of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD). We hypothesized that a ~5-min resting 12-lead <it>advanced </it>ECG test ("A-ECG") that combined results from both the advanced and conventional ECG could more accurately screen for these conditions than strictly conventional ECG.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Results from nearly every conventional and advanced resting ECG parameter known from the literature to have diagnostic or predictive value were first retrospectively evaluated in 418 healthy controls and 290 patients with imaging-proven CAD, LVH and/or LVSD. Each ECG parameter was examined for potential inclusion within multi-parameter A-ECG scores derived from multivariate regression models that were designed to optimally screen for disease in general or LVSD in particular. The performance of the best retrospectively-validated A-ECG scores was then compared against that of optimized pooled criteria from the strictly conventional ECG in a test set of 315 additional individuals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to optimized pooled criteria from the strictly conventional ECG, a 7-parameter A-ECG score validated in the training set increased the sensitivity of resting ECG for identifying disease in the test set from 78% (72-84%) to 92% (88-96%) (P < 0.0001) while also increasing specificity from 85% (77-91%) to 94% (88-98%) (P < 0.05). In diseased patients, another 5-parameter A-ECG score increased the PPV of ECG for LVSD from 53% (41-65%) to 92% (78-98%) (P < 0.0001) without compromising related negative predictive value.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Resting 12-lead A-ECG scoring is more accurate than strictly conventional ECG in screening for CAD, LVH and LVSD.</p

Restriction and Sequence Alterations Affect DNA Uptake Sequence-Dependent Transformation in Neisseria meningitidis

Transformation is a complex process that involves several interactions from the binding and uptake of naked DNA to homologous recombination. Some actions affect transformation favourably whereas others act to limit it. Here, meticulous manipulation of a single type of transforming DNA allowed for quantifying the impact of three different mediators of meningococcal transformation: NlaIV restriction, homologous recombination and the DNA Uptake Sequence (DUS). In the wildtype, an inverse relationship between the transformation frequency and the number of NlaIV restriction sites in DNA was observed when the transforming DNA harboured a heterologous region for selection (ermC) but not when the transforming DNA was homologous with only a single nucleotide heterology. The influence of homologous sequence in transforming DNA was further studied using plasmids with a small interruption or larger deletions in the recombinogenic region and these alterations were found to impair transformation frequency. In contrast, a particularly potent positive driver of DNA uptake in Neisseria sp. are short DUS in the transforming DNA. However, the molecular mechanism(s) responsible for DUS specificity remains unknown. Increasing the number of DUS in the transforming DNA was here shown to exert a positive effect on transformation. Furthermore, an influence of variable placement of DUS relative to the homologous region in the donor DNA was documented for the first time. No effect of altering the orientation of DUS was observed. These observations suggest that DUS is important at an early stage in the recognition of DNA, but does not exclude the existence of more than one level of DUS specificity in the sequence of events that constitute transformation. New knowledge on the positive and negative drivers of transformation may in a larger perspective illuminate both the mechanisms and the evolutionary role(s) of one of the most conserved mechanisms in nature: homologous recombination

A trial on unruptured intracranial aneurysms (the TEAM trial): results, lessons from a failure and the necessity for clinical care trials

The trial on endovascular management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (TEAM), a prospective randomized trial comparing coiling and conservative management, initiated in September 2006, was stopped in June 2009 because of poor recruitment (80 patients). Aspects of the trial design that may have contributed to this failure are reviewed in the hope of identifying better ways to successfully complete this special type of pragmatic trial which seeks to test two strategies that are in routine clinical use. Cultural, conceptual and bureaucratic hurdles and difficulties obstruct all trials. These obstacles are however particularly misplaced when the trial aims to identify what a good medical practice should be. A clean separation between research and practice, with diverging ethical and scientific requirements, has been enforced for decades, but it cannot work when care needs to be provided in the presence of pervasive uncertainty. Hence valid and robust scientific methods need to be legitimately re-integrated into clinical practice when reliable knowledge is in want

Effectiveness of manual therapies: the UK evidence report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this report is to provide a succinct but comprehensive summary of the scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of manual treatment for the management of a variety of musculoskeletal and non-musculoskeletal conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The conclusions are based on the results of systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), widely accepted and primarily UK and United States evidence-based clinical guidelines, plus the results of all RCTs not yet included in the first three categories. The strength/quality of the evidence regarding effectiveness was based on an adapted version of the grading system developed by the US Preventive Services Task Force and a study risk of bias assessment tool for the recent RCTs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By September 2009, 26 categories of conditions were located containing RCT evidence for the use of manual therapy: 13 musculoskeletal conditions, four types of chronic headache and nine non-musculoskeletal conditions. We identified 49 recent relevant systematic reviews and 16 evidence-based clinical guidelines plus an additional 46 RCTs not yet included in systematic reviews and guidelines.</p> <p>Additionally, brief references are made to other effective non-pharmacological, non-invasive physical treatments.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Spinal manipulation/mobilization is effective in adults for: acute, subacute, and chronic low back pain; migraine and cervicogenic headache; cervicogenic dizziness; manipulation/mobilization is effective for several extremity joint conditions; and thoracic manipulation/mobilization is effective for acute/subacute neck pain. The evidence is inconclusive for cervical manipulation/mobilization alone for neck pain of any duration, and for manipulation/mobilization for mid back pain, sciatica, tension-type headache, coccydynia, temporomandibular joint disorders, fibromyalgia, premenstrual syndrome, and pneumonia in older adults. Spinal manipulation is not effective for asthma and dysmenorrhea when compared to sham manipulation, or for Stage 1 hypertension when added to an antihypertensive diet. In children, the evidence is inconclusive regarding the effectiveness for otitis media and enuresis, and it is not effective for infantile colic and asthma when compared to sham manipulation.</p> <p>Massage is effective in adults for chronic low back pain and chronic neck pain. The evidence is inconclusive for knee osteoarthritis, fibromyalgia, myofascial pain syndrome, migraine headache, and premenstrual syndrome. In children, the evidence is inconclusive for asthma and infantile colic.</p

SOSORT consensus paper: school screening for scoliosis. Where are we today?

This report is the SOSORT Consensus Paper on School Screening for Scoliosis discussed at the 4th International Conference on Conservative Management of Spinal Deformities, presented by SOSORT, on May 2007. The objectives were numerous, 1) the inclusion of the existing information on the issue, 2) the analysis and discussion of the responses by the meeting attendees to the twenty six questions of the questionnaire, 3) the impact of screening on frequency of surgical treatment and of its discontinuation, 4) the reasons why these programs must be continued, 5) the evolving aim of School Screening for Scoliosis and 6) recommendations for improvement of the procedure