Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy with sticky prices a la Calvo and forward looking behavior. In this paper we extend this standard model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. As the linear Phillips curve may be questioned on theoretical grounds and seems not to be favoured by empirical evidence, a similar procedure has already been undertaken in a series papers over the last few years, e.g., Schaling (1999), Semmler and Zhang (2004), Nobay and Peel (2000), Tambakis (1999), and Dolado et al. (2004). However, these papers were mainly concerned with the analysis of the problem of inflation bias, by deriving an interest rate rule which is nonlinear, leaving the issues of stability and the possible existence of endogenous cycles in such a framework mostly overlooked. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for both convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into a fully deterministic structure of the standard model produces significant changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy in the standard model. We should emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable and chaotic fixed points (endogenous cycles); (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem interesting. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate may have a lower mean and is certainly less volatile; secondly, for changes in the degree of price stickiness the results are not are clear cut as in the previous case, however, we can also observe that when such stickiness is high the inflation rate tends to display a somewhat larger mean and also higher volatility; and thirdly, it shows that the target values for inflation and the output gap (π^,x^), both crucially affect the dynamics of the economy in terms of average values and volatility of the endogenous variables --- e.g., the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility --- while in the linear case only the π^ does so (obviously, only affecting in this case the level of the endogenous variables). Moreover, the existence of endogenous cycles due to chaotic motion may raise serious questions about whether the old dictum of monetary policy (that the Central Bank should conduct policy with discretion instead of commitment) is not still very much in the business of monetary policy.Optimal monetary policy, Interest Rate Rules, Nonlinear Phillips Curve, Endogenous Fluctuations and Stabilization

A temporal analysis on patient and health service delays in pulmonary tuberculosis in Portugal: Inter and intra‑regional differences and in(equalities) between gender and age

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment delays increase the period of infectiousness, making TB control difficult and increasing the fatality rates. This study aimed to determine the evolution of health care service delay (time between the patient’s first contact with the health service and the diagnosis/start of treatment) and patient delay (time between onset symptoms date and the date of first contact with health services) for Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) in Portugal between 2008 and 2017 across different regions, age groups and gender. Methods: An exploratory analysis was performed, trends of both delays were studied, and 36 months forecasts were generated. We used the permutation test to test differences between groups and the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for forecasting for both Health and Patient delays. We used data from notified PTB cases in mainland Portugal between 2008 and 2017, provided by the national surveillance system. Results: Health delays remained relatively constant while patient delays increased. Females had significantly higher health delays in some regions. Individuals older than 64 had higher health delays than younger individuals, while patient delay for working-age individuals between 15 and 64 years old, presents higher patient delay. Conclusions: Forecasts presage that the upward trend of the delays is unlikely to fall in the coming years. It is important to understand the evolution of the delays and predict how these will evolve. Our understanding of the delays behaviours will contribute to better health policies and resources allocation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Características morfométricas da carcaça de ovinos morada nova alimentados com farelo de castanha de caju.

Objetivou-se avaliar a influência da inclusão de farelo de castanha de caju na dieta sobre as características de carcaça de ovinos Morada Nova

Características físicas e químicas de frutos de cajuí (Anacardium ssp.).

O cajuizeiro é uma espécie ainda não domesticada bastante vulnerável do ponto de vista de exploração extensiva dos ecossistemas e sobre a qual se dispõe de poucas informações. Sua exploração é totalmente extrativista, encontrando-se ameaçada pelo uso inadequado dos ecossistemas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar características físicas e químicas de frutos de cajuí, obtidos na área da Embrapa Meio-Norte, em Teresina, PI. Coletaram-se frutos maduros no período da safra e analisaram-se as seguintes características: peso médio do pedúnculo (PMP); comprimento do pedúnculo (CP); diâmetro médio do pedúnculo (DMEDP); relação CP/DMEDP; peso médio da castanha (PMC); relação PMC/PMP; sólidos solúveis totais (SST); acidez total titulável (ATT); e relação SST/ATT. Há presença de ampla variabilidade fenotípica no germoplasma estudado. Os genótipos G-7, G-6, G-1 e G-14 são mais apropriados para aproveitamento in natura

Medidas morfométricas da carcaça de cordeiros de diferentes genótipos submetidos a dois sistemas de produção.

Resumo: Objetivou-se avaliar a influência do sistema de produção, bem como de diferentes grupos genéticos sobre as características morfométricas da carcaça de cordeiros. Foram observados 24 animais, machos não castrados, das raças ½Dorper x ½SPRD, ½Santa Inês x ½SPRD e ½Somalis x ½SPRD, submetidos à terminação a pasto e em confinamento. Os animais foram abatidos com peso vivo médio de 30 kg. As carcaças foram pesadas e refrigeradas a 4ºC por 24h, quando então foram mensuradas as seguintes medidas morfométricas: comprimento corporal, perímetro torácico, perímetro da perna, comprimento da perna e comprimento interno. O sistema de produção interferiu nas medidas de perímetro da perna e comprimento interno, não havendo diferença significativa (P>0,05) para as demais medidas. Os genótipos estudados não influenciaram na medida de perímetro. As medidas de comprimento da carcaça, perímetro da perna e comprimento interno não diferiram estatisticamente para os mestiços ½Dorper x ½SPRD e ½Santa Inês x ½SPRD, no entanto esses genótipos apresentaram diferença significativa para a raça ½Somalis x ½SPRD nesses parâmetros. O sistema de produção não acarretou mudanças importantes para as medidas morfométricas de comprimento de carcaça, perímetro torácico e comprimento da perna. O mestiço ½Dorper x ½SPRD apresentou as melhores médias para as medidas estudadas. [Morphometric carcass characteristics of lambs of different genotypes under two production systems]. Abstract: Objectified to evaluate the influence of production system, well as of different genetic groups on the morphometric characteristics of the carcass of lambs. 24 animals had been observed, males not castrated, of breeds ½ Dorper x ½ SPRD, ½ Santa Inês x ½ SPRD and ½ Somalis x ½ SPRD, submitted to termination grass and confinement. The animals had been abated with average alive weight 30 kg. The carcasses had been weighed and cooled 4ºC for 24h, when then following morphometric measures had been measured: corporal length, thoracic perimeter, perimeter of leg, length of leg and internal length. The production system intervened with the measures of perimeter of leg and internal length, not having significant difference (P>0.05) for excessively measures. Studied genotypes had not influenced in measure of perimeter. Measures of length of carcass, perimeter of leg and internal length hanot statistical differed for the mestizos ½ Dorper x ½ SPRD and ½ Santa Inês x ½ SPRD, however these genotypes had presented significant difference for the breed ½ Somalis x ½ SPRD in these parameters. The production system does not cause important changes for morphometric measures of carcass length, thoracic perimeter and length of the leg. The mestizo ½ Dorper x ½ SPRD presented best averages for studied measures

Características qualitativas da carcaça de cordeiros de diferentes genótipos submetidos a dois sistemas de produção.

Resumo: No sistema de produção de carne, as características qualitativas da carcaça são de fundamental importância para complementar a avaliação do desempenho animal. Assim, objetivou-se avaliar a influência do sistema de produção, bem como diferentes genótipos sobre as características qualitativas da carcaça de cordeiros. Foram observados 24 animais, machos inteiros, das raças ½Dorper x ½SPRD, ½Santa Inês x ½SPRD e ½Somalis x ½SPRD, submetidos à terminação a pasto e em confinamento. Os animais foram abatidos com peso vivo médio de 30 kg. As carcaças foram pesadas e refrigeradas por 24h, quando foram extraídos os Longissimus dorsi e neles mensurados grau de marmoreio, distribuição e textura da gordura, além da cor e textura da carne. A distribuição da gordura na carcaça não sofreu influência de nenhum tratamento (P>0,05), enquanto que o grau de marmoreio e textura da gordura teve interferência do sistema de produção, assim como a cor da carne. Os genótipos avaliados não diferiram nos atributos de distribuição da gordura, como também na textura e cor da carne. Os cordeiros ½Santa Inês x ½SPRD apresentaram as menores médias para grau de marmoreio e textura da gordura. O mestiço ½Dorper x ½SPRD proporcionou os melhores resultados para os parâmetros qualitativos avaliados nesta pesquisa. [Qualitative characteristics the Carcass Lambs Different Submitted Genotypes Two Systems of Production]. Abstract: In system meat production, qualitative characteristics of carcass are basic importance to complement the evaluation of animal performance. Thus, objectified to evaluate the influence of production system, as well different genotypes on qualitative characteristics carcass of lambs. Twenty four animals had been observed, entire males, breeds ½ Dorper x ½ SPRD, ½ Saint Ines x ½ SPRD and ½ Somalis x ½ SPRD, submitted the termination the grass and in confinement. The animals had been abated with average alive weight of 30 kg. The carcasses had been weighed and cooled for 24h, when they had been extracted Longissimus dorsi and in them measured degree of marbling, distribution and texture of the fat and texture beyond the color and texture of the meat. Distribution of fat in carcass did not suffer influence from no treatment (P>0.05), whereas the degree of marbling and texture of fat had interference of the production system, as well the color of meat. Evaluated genotypes had not differed in distribution attributes of fat, as well as in texture and color of meat. The lambs ½ Saint Ines x ½ SPRD presented the average minors for the marbling attributes and texture of fat. The mixed race ½ Dorper x ½ SPRD provided the best ones resulted for the attributes evaluated in this research

Effect of storage conditions on stability of free and encapsulated – in plain or cysteine-supplemented alginate, Lactobacillus acidophilus Ki

Lately, many functional food products have been widely released. Functional foods are foods which promote health beyond providing basic nutrition (Sanders, 1998). Probiotic bacteria are currently used in the development of functional food products (Pimentel-González, 2009; Siró et al., 2008), yet sometimes face technological challenges when incorporated in food matrices with more aggressive environments – salt, acid or oxygen concentrations. In order to be effective, the suggested concentration for probiotic bacteria is 106 CFU/g of a product (Shah, 2000). Encapsulation is an efficient technique to overcome such difficulties since microcapsules help in their protection from both the product intrinsic properties and the gastrointestinal tract conditions. Besides the challenges originated by the food matrices and the gastrointestinal tract there is also the challenge of conservation of the viable microorganisms throughout production and storage of the delivery food product which is also a reason for encapsulating probiotics (Allan-Wojtas et al., 2008) since the encapsulation technique can also help to protect the probiotics from the storage conditions of the product and thus increase its shelf-life in which the microorganisms are inside their effectiveness range. In this research work stability of calcium alginate capsules, produced by extrusion by aerodynamically assisted flow, throughout six months storage was studied. The effect of four storage temperatures (21, 4, -20 and -80 ºC) upon the viability of free and encapsulated cells of Lactobacillus acidophilus Ki was assessed. Two types of microcapsules were produced – one with calcium alginate and another where L-cysteine·HCl was utilized as a supplement to the calcium alginate matrix.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Endocardite Aguda Bi-Valvular Esquerda por Estafilococo Aureus Meticilino-Resistente com Complicações Cardíaca, Cerebral, Renal e Sepsis

Infective endocarditis (IE) is now rare in developed countries, but its prevalence is higher in elderly patients with prosthetic valves, diabetes, renal impairment, or heart failure. An increase in health-care associated IE (HCAIE) has been observed due to invasive maneuvers (30% of cases). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Enterococcus are the most common agents in HCAIE, causing high mortality and morbidity. We review complications of IE and its therapy, based on a patient with acute bivalvular left-sided MRSA IE and a prosthetic aortic valve, aggravated by congestive heart failure, stroke, acute immune complex glomerulonephritis, Candida parapsilosis fungémia and death probably due to Serratia marcescens sepsis. The HCAIE was assumed to be related to three temporally associated in-hospital interventions considered as possible initial etiological mechanisms: overcrowding in the hospital environment,iv quinolone therapy and red blood cell transfusion. Later in the clinical course,C. parapsilosis and S. marcescens septicemia were considered to be possible secondary etiological mechanisms of HCAIE