47 research outputs found
Lâ Ă©volution de la thĂ©orie des crises bancaires : Les quatre types de gĂ©nĂ©rations de modĂšles de crises bancaires
Résumé
Lâhistoire de la finance est jalonnĂ©e par la rĂ©currence des crises bancaires. Les diffĂ©rentes Ă©tudes rĂ©alisĂ©es pour comprendre et prĂ©dire leurs avĂšnements ont donnĂ© naissance Ă quatre types de gĂ©nĂ©ration de modĂšles de crises bancaires. La premiĂšre gĂ©nĂ©ration sâest intĂ©ressĂ©e aux sources dâinstabilitĂ© financiĂšre qui pouvaient mettre en pĂ©ril le systĂšme financier. La deuxiĂšme gĂ©nĂ©ration sâest penchĂ©e sur le comportement des dĂ©posants qui pouvait dĂ©clencher une ruĂ©e bancaire et sur les Ă©lĂ©ments qui alimentaient une bulle spĂ©culative. La troisiĂšme gĂ©nĂ©ration a analysĂ© les facteurs de vulnĂ©rabilitĂ© bancaire. Et enfin la quatriĂšme gĂ©nĂ©ration avec le dĂ©clenchement de la crise des subprimes marque la genĂšse dâun nouveau tournant dans la rĂ©solution des crises qui a donnĂ© naissance Ă un nouveau paradigme « macroprudentiel » et a ouvert un dĂ©bat sur lâefficacitĂ© de la politique mixte intĂ©grĂ©e et sĂ©parĂ©e. Ainsi, dans cet article, nous traiterons lâĂ©volution de ces quatre types de gĂ©nĂ©ration de modĂšles de crises bancaires qui ont comme objectif de limiter la genĂšse et le dĂ©clenchement de nouvelles crises.  
Crise ou pas crise : Comment lâeÌviter ?
Il est treÌs difficile de pouvoir preÌdire les crises et encore moins de pouvoir limiter leur aveÌnement. ReÌcemment une crise sous une nouvelle forme de nature sanitaire a fait son apparition. Elle risque de provoquer une crise systeÌmique aÌ nâimporte quel moment malgreÌ les diffeÌrentes mesures prises par les autoriteÌs pour atteÌnuer les tensions financieÌres en preÌservant les flux de creÌdit et en maintenant lâactiviteÌ eÌconomique. Ces actions entreprises peuvent bien au contraire induire aÌ des turbulences financieÌres. En effet, les banques centrales sont confronteÌes aÌ un arbitrage entre stimuler et favoriser la croissance eÌconomique sur le court terme et devoir supporter la monteÌe des risques sur le moyen et le long terme. Lâaugmentation des facteurs de vulneÌrabiliteÌ alimente la bulle qui est en train de se constituer et risque de produire des effets neÌfastes si elle se deÌclenche. Nous avons essayeÌ aÌ travers cet article dâanalyser la situation actuelle pour deÌterminer les facteurs deÌclencheurs de crises. Notre analyse a reÌveÌleÌ lâexistence de principalement quatre facteurs lâaleÌa moral lieÌ au programme dâachat des actifs, le surendettement et le risque de lâeffet de levier ainsi que le deÌsalignement des prix dont la politique macroprudentielle peut eÌtre efficace aÌ faire reÌduire leurs effets indeÌsirables
Le profil des investisseurs socialement responsables au Maroc
Si lâInvestissement Socialement Responsable (ISR) est bien connu outre mer, il reste quasiment mĂ©connu en Afrique. Au Maroc, bien que les prĂ©misses de ce marchĂ© de niche remontent Ă fin 2005, sa genĂšse vĂ©ritable Ă la Bourse des Valeurs de Casablanca (BVC) nâest pas encore rĂ©ellement Ă©vidente. Ce qui fait quâil est relativement plus connu des investisseurs institutionnels. Quant au segment des particuliers, il est totalement ignorĂ© et ignorant dans ce domaine. En outre, peu dâĂ©tudes au Maroc ont essayĂ© de comprendre le phĂ©nomĂšne mĂȘme de lâISR. Pour pallier ce vide, nous avons menĂ© une enquĂȘte auprĂšs dâun Ă©chantillon De 690 Ă©pargnants particuliers. Ainsi, cet article prĂ©sente une lecture prospective des comportements potentiels des investisseurs particuliers face Ă lâISR. Il aboutit Ă la construction des profils des particuliers susceptibles dâĂȘtre intĂ©ressĂ©s par lâISR et dont lâĂ©pargne pourrait, de ce fait, ĂȘtre canalisĂ©e vers la BVC dans une logique de dynamisation de notre marchĂ© financier et de diversification des sources de financement des Entreprises Socialement Responsables (ESR).
 
Lâeffet combineÌ de la baisse de creÌation dâentreprises et du PIB sur la deÌfaillance dâentreprises Marocaines: Une analyse eÌconomeÌtrique
Depuis longtemps, les probleÌmes de deÌfaillance ont susciteÌ lâinteÌreÌt de plusieurs chercheurs, aussi bien des eÌconomistes que des juristes, car il sâagit dâun enjeu fondamental de la socieÌteÌ. Pour ces chercheurs, la deÌfinition du terme de la deÌfaillance et la deÌlimitation de son champ dâintervention eÌtait lâune des taÌches les plus difficiles, vu la varieÌteÌ des situations relatives aÌ lâapplication de ce pheÌnomeÌne. De nos jours les experts s'attendent aÌ une forte hausse du nombre de faillites d'entreprises aÌ la suite de la crise du coronavirus. Cette eÌtude se fixe pour objectif dâexplorer les implications possibles de lâeffet combineÌ de la baisse de creÌation dâentreprises et du PIB sur la deÌfaillance des entreprises marocaines en examinant les approches eÌconomiques explicatives de la deÌfaillance. Ces approches cherchent surtout aÌ deÌterminer les facteurs de deÌfaillance des entreprises aÌ travers des apports theÌoriques et des eÌtudes eÌconomeÌtriques. De ce fait, nous formulons notre hypotheÌse centrale selon laquelle « La deÌfaillance des entreprises est expliqueÌe par les conditions macroeÌconomiques »
New Petro-Mineralogical Results on the Magmatic Surrounding Rocks of Cu-Ag Mineralization in Tagmout (Eastern Anti -Atlas, Morocco)
Tagmout deposit is located in the Eastern Anti-Atlas, about 30 km south of the city of Qalùat Mgouna. It contains Cu-Ag mineralization which is embedded in magmatic rocks that are essentially intrusive of various facies. Detailed mapping (1/1200) and petro-mineralogical observation of these facies allow us to distinguish: 1) Olivine gabronorite, it is composed mainly of pyroxenes (CPX and OPX), olivine and biotite; 2) Quartz monzogabbro, it is characterized by the presence of pyroxenes, amphiboles, plagioclases, FK and quartz; 3) Quartz monzodiorite, which is a porphyric facies. It occupies the center of the Tagmout sector which is rich in FK, plagioclase, quartz, amphibole and pyroxene; 4) Granodiorite, it is a facies associated with quartz monzodiorite. It shows a paragenesis composed of FK, quartz and plagioclase; 5) Pink microgranite, metric dykes developing in different directions (N10° to N15°, N70° to N90°, N120° to N130 °). It is a facies rich in quartz, FK and plagioclase; 6) Dolerite, It is a dark-colored facies with a typical doleritic texture. It is rich in plagioclase and relics of pyroxenes and amphiboles. This facies occupies the eastern part of Tagmout complex; 7) Volcano-sedimentary facies with rhyolite appearance of brick red color. It is a vitreous fine matrix and conglomerate elements which is rich in quartz and FK. These are conglomerates that are affected by the terminal neoproterozoic rhyolitic lavas. They are also affected to different degrees by several phases of hydrothermal alterations of potassic, phyllitic, clayey, and propylitic types. The effect of these alterations on the rock at the surface is very variable. The granodiorite is highly affected while olivine gabbronorite is not very sensitive and retains a remarkable state of freshness. This raises an interrogation on the chronological place and the advanced age for these facies (557 ± 5 Ma, Benziane and al. 2008).With the exception of recent formations (microgranite, dolerite and volcano-sedimentary facies), the contact between the plutonic rocks of Tagmout (olivine gabbronorite, quartz monzogabbro, quartz monzodiorite, granodiorite and granite) never takes major structural discontinuity nor contact metamorphism. But the localization of some enclaves on both sides of the neighboring facies with an intense brecciation marked the contact of these facies. This configuration suggests that the plutonic formations of Tagmout massive that the setting up was done in a contemporary way and is derived from the same magma by fractional crystallization in a magmatic chamber
The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance
INTRODUCTION
Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic.
RATIONALE
We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs).
RESULTS
Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants.
CONCLUSION
Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century
PreÌvision de la vulneÌrabiliteÌ du secteur bancaire marocain : Stress tests retenus dans notre eÌtude et ceux reÌaliseÌs par Bank Al Maghrib
ApreÌs le deÌclenchement de la crise sanitaire et ses retombeÌes neÌgatives sur lâeÌconomie marocaine, il eÌtait essentiel de preÌvoir la vulneÌrabiliteÌ du secteur bancaire marocain. Nous avons deÌcideÌ de reprendre notre eÌtude reÌaliseÌe entre 2019 et deÌbut 2020 pour comparer les hypotheÌses du sceÌnario pessimiste eÌtabli avec celles formuleÌes par Bank Al Maghrib en 2021 qui se sont aveÌreÌes moins seÌveÌres. La reÌalisation de notre eÌtude a porteÌ sur la construction dâun indice semestriel sur une peÌriode allant du mois de deÌcembre 2005 au mois deÌcembre 2018, sur lâestimation du modeÌle VECM et sur lâapplication des stress tests de trois types de sceÌnarios avec des hypotheÌses diffeÌrentes. Les reÌsultats de notre eÌtude montrent que le secteur bancaire marocain est moyennement vulneÌrable et fera preuve de sa reÌsilience dâici 2023. NeÌanmoins il risque de subir un choc de taux dâinteÌreÌt suite aÌ un mouvement deÌfavorable. Bank Al Maghrib est appeleÌe donc aÌ coordonner entre les variations du taux et les restrictions prudentielles
Current situation, genetic relationship and control measures of infectious bronchitis virus variants circulating in African regions
Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a major viral pathogen of commercial poultry, affecting chickens of all ages and causing major economic losses in poultry industry worldwide. Frequent points of mutations and recombination events in the S1 gene region, result in the emergence of new IBVs variants circulating in the form of several serotypes/genotypes that can be partially or poorly neutralized by current vaccines. IBV is well studied worldwide, nevertheless in African countries epidemiological and scientific data are poor and not updated.
This review aims to give a current overview of IBV situation, to establish evolutionary relationship between the African variants and to list some of the potential measures to control IBV in Africa.
Three S1 gene hypervariable regions were studied and compared to the reference genotypes/serotypes that found emerging in African regions. This comparison was based on phylogenetic trees, nucleotide and amino-acid sequence analysis. It clearly appears that IBV variants reported in Africa, display a low genetic relationship between them and with the majority of the reference strains emerging in neighboring countries, except the case of variants from Libya and Egypt that show a high relatedness. Also the Massachusetts serotypes were the most prevalent co-circulating with both serotypes, Italy02 type in Morocco and Qx-like genotype in South part of the African continent. In order to control the IBV variants in African regions, an efficient vaccination strategy program should be implemented
Multifocal osteoarticular tuberculosis and pleuropulmonary involvement in an immunocompetent patient
Introduction: Multifocal tuberculosis is an uncommon presentation in immune-competent patients; itâs associated more with an immune-depression like HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) infection. Here, we are presenting unusual multifocal osteoarticular localizations including the wrist and tarsal joint which are rare and pleura-pulmonary tuberculosis.
Case presentation: Wrist, ankle, tarsal joint, hip and lung involvement was detected in a 30Â year-old male patient. Mycobacterium tuberculosis was isolated from both synovial and pleural biopsy specimen cultures. The treatment was based on 9Â months of antituberculosis drugs: rifampin (RMP), isoniazid (INH), pyrazinamide (Z) and ethambutol (EMB). INH (300Â mg/day), RMP (600Â mg/day), PZA (3gr/day) and EMB (1200Â mg/day) were given for treatment 6Â days/7. In the 4th week the patientâs condition improved and was discharged. After two months, the therapy was continued with INH and RMP up to 9Â months. A hip replacement surgery and wrist Arthrodesis will be discussed after the patientâs total healing.
Conclusion: Tuberculous osteoarthritis is a frequently missed diagnosis, especially in different clinical patterns. A high level of suspicion is required particularly in high-risk populations and endemic areas. Well conducted treatment improves the prognosis