How Personal Judgment Influences Scenario Development: an Example for Future Rural Development in Europe

Scenarios of alternative plausible futures have been used extensively to explore the potential effects of socioeconomic and environmental change. The ultimate objective of any explorative scenario exercise is to assess the variation in possible futures to provide insights into the range of potential outcomes. These results provide stakeholders with guidance for policy development, planning, and management. We explore how personal judgment can influence scenario development. Scenarios for the future of European rural regions are used to explore alternative outcomes under a public interventionist future and a market liberalization oriented future. A transparent qualitative framework is used to identify differences in outcomes based on personal judgment. Results show that, for both scenarios, there are plausible mechanisms that can lead to similar positive or negative outcomes. Choosing a single process per scenario, based on personal judgment and interpretation, can therefore greatly influence scenario outcomes and limit the range of uncertainty that is covered by the scenarios. The exercise shows the importance of making these judgments explicit in scenario development, especially when exploring broad consequences of alternative policy directions that may be based in political worldviews

Molecular Analysis of Endocrine Disruption in Hornyhead Turbot at Wastewater Outfalls in Southern California Using a Second Generation Multi-Species Microarray

Sentinel fish hornyhead turbot ( Pleuronichthys verticalis ) captured near wastewater outfalls are used for monitoring exposure to industrial and agricultural chemicals of ~ 20 million people living in coastal Southern California. Although analyses of hormones in blood and organ morphology and histology are useful for assessing contaminant exposure, there is a need for quantitative and sensitive molecular measurements, since contaminants of emerging concern are known to produce subtle effects. We developed a second generation multi-species microarray with expanded content and sensitivity to investigate endocrine disruption in turbot captured near wastewater outfalls in San Diego, Orange County and Los Angeles California. Analysis of expression of genes involved in hormone [e.g., estrogen, androgen, thyroid] responses and xenobiotic metabolism in turbot livers was correlated with a series of phenotypic end points. Molecular analyses of turbot livers uncovered altered expression of vitellogenin and zona pellucida protein, indicating exposure to one or more estrogenic chemicals, as well as, alterations in cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A, CYP3A and glutathione S-transferase-α indicating induction of the detoxification response. Molecular responses indicative of exposure to endocrine disruptors were observed in field-caught hornyhead turbot captured in Southern California demonstrating the utility of molecular methods for monitoring environmental chemicals in wastewater outfalls. Moreover, this approach can be adapted to monitor other sites for contaminants of emerging concern in other fish species for which there are few available gene sequences