Influence of survey engagement and multiple-choice heuristics in the estimation of the value of a statistical life

Estimating the value of non-market goods, such as reductions in mortality risks due to traffic accidents or air pollution, is typically done using stated choice (SC) data. However, issues with potential estimation biases due to the hypothetical nature of SC experiments arise, as protest choices are common and survey engagement is not constant across respondents. Further, if respondents choose to use different choice mechanisms and this is not considered, the results may also be biased. We designed an SC experiment to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions, that allowed us to simultaneously estimate the WTP to reduce the risk of traffic accident deaths and cardiorespiratory deaths due to air pollution. We formulated and estimated a multiple heuristic latent class model that also considered two latent constructs: Institutional Belief, to consider protest responses, and survey Engagement as a class membership covariate. We found, first, that individuals with lower institutional belief gave a higher probability of choice to the status-quo alternative, shying away from programs involving governmental action. Second, that not identifying respondents who do not appropriately engage in the experiment, biased the WTP estimators. In our case WTP decreased up to 26% when two different choice heuristics were allowed for in the model. © 202

The 2016 seismic series in the south Alboran Sea: Seismotectonics, Coulomb Failure Stress changes and implications for the active tectonics in the area

The Southern Alboran Sea, particularly the area offshore Al Hoceima Bay, presents moderate but continuous seismic activity since the Mw 6.0 1994 Al Hoceima earthquake. The maximum magnitude occurred in the area was a Mw 6.3 earthquake in the 2004 Al Hoceima – Tamasint seismic series. Since then, the seismicity in the Al Hoceima area has been usual, with maximum seismic magnitudes around 4. An increase in the seismic rate was registered during 2015, especially from May, culminating in the seismic series in January 2016. The mainshock occurred on January 25th 2016 with a magnitude Mw 6.3 and it was preceded by a Mw 5.1 foreshock on January 21st. The seismic series took place at the western end of the Alboran Ridge. Towards the northeast the Alboran Ridge bends, and seems to be connected with the NW-SE right-lateral transtensional Yusuf Fault. The recorded seismicity is mainly located in the Alboran Ridge area and along the N-S Al-Idrisi Fault that seems to continue southwards, towards the Al Hoceima Bay. The focal mechanisms calculated previously in the area showed a leftlateral strike-slip faulting with some normal component in the Alboran Ridge; but always within a complex system of diffuse deformation and high rupture type variability. We have used 41 computed focal mechanisms of this seismic series to analyze its seismotectonics and structural characteristics. To group the focal mechanisms we used a clustering algorithm using the spatial distribution of the events and also the type of rupture mechanism. For each cluster we have obtained the composed focal mechanism, associating it to a particular fault or family of structures. We have tested the mechanical compatibility of these structures by Coulomb Failure Stress transfer modeling. The mainshock of the series occurred in the Al Idrisi Fault intersecting the western Alboran Ridge. This event triggered aftershocks and independent series in left-lateral strike-slip faults associated with the Al Idrisi Fault System towards the south, but also in near pure reverse faults in the fault zone bounding the the Alboran Ridge. Both types of faults and rupture-mechanisms coexist, linked mechanically by stress transfer, being coeval the uplift of the Alboran Ridge and its northwestward displacement due to the left-lateral motion of the Al-Idrisi Fault. It is also discussed how the contrasting faulting processes and seismic ruptures are developed in two differentially oriented fault zones in the context the current NW-SE plate convergence between the African and Eurasian plates in the Westernmost Mediterranean

Nonparametric estimation to reconstruct the deformation history of an active fold in the Caspian Basin

The complete shape of an active fold in the western margin of the South Caspian Basin is established with a seismic section from a post-stacked cube migrated in depth. The structure is an open anticline, which deforms a thick sequence (more than 7 km) of Late Miocene to Pliocene sediments: the productive series (PS 5.9–3.1 Ma). A major erosive unconformity separates the most recent sediments with onlap and draping geometries towards the anticline culmination. Deformation is reconstructed using the complete fit of numerous reflections by the nonparametric regression method. This fold is detached above a weak, shale-rich unit located between 8 and 10 km depth dipping gently towards the E (7∘). The fold geometry resembles a detachment fold, although it is reconstructed a long-lived history of basinward tilting accompanying sedimentation and folding, which diminished from 0.61 to 0.34∘/Ma during deposition of the PS. Fold growth started at 3.5 Ma within the upper PS with a shortening rate of 0.2 mm/year and coinciding with maximum sedimentation rates (3.24 mm/year). Folding continued up-to-Present under lower sedimentation rates (av. 0.66 ± 0.2 mm/year) and a shortening rate that increased slightly from 0.17 mm/year at 3.1 Ma to 0.29 mm/year during the last 1.6 Ma. The balance between sedimentation and shortening rates varies during folding, explaining the contrasting geometries observed in the growth sediments. It is also inferred that the possible occurrence of lateral flow of overpressured mud-rich sediments inflated the fold core during shortening, similarly to the upwelling process commonly described in salt-core anticlines.MICINN research projectsJunta de Andalucí

Adaptive Asymmetric Least Squares baseline estimation for analytical instruments

Automated signal processing in analytical instrumentation is today required for the analysis of highly complex biomedical samples. Baseline estimation techniques are often used to correct long term instrument contamination or degradation. They are essential for accurate peak area integration. Some methods approach the baseline estimation iteratively, trying to ignore peaks which do not belong to the baseline. The proposed method in this work consists of a modification of the Asymmetric Least Squares (ALS) baseline removal technique developed by Eilers and Boelens. The ALS technique suffers from bias in the presence of intense peaks (in relation to the noise level). This is typical of diverse instrumental techniques such as Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) or Gas Chromatography-Ion Mobility Spectrometry (GC-IMS). In this work, we propose a modification (named psalsa) to the asymmetry weights of the original ALS method in order to better reject large peaks above the baseline. Our method will be compared to several versions of the ALS algorithm using synthetic and real GC signals. Results show that our proposal improves previous versions being more robust to parameter variations and providing more accurate peak areas

Applicability of magnetic fabrics in rocks associated with the emplacement of salt structures (the Bicorb-Quesa and Navarrés salt walls, Prebetics, SE Spain)

This work assesses the applicability of the analysis of the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) to rocks associated with salt structures.Magnetic fabrics from16 sites sampled on Upper Triassic clays (Keuper facies) interbedded within the salt layers of the Bicorb-Quesa and Navarrés saltwalls (Prebetic Zone, SE Spain) aremostly characterized by oblate magnetic ellipsoids with theirmagnetic foliation parallel to the bedding andmagnetic lineation contained in the bedding plane but without a constant relationship with dip direction. To evaluate the quality and significance of the low-field AMS, several experiments were carried out to characterize the magnetic mineralogy of representative samples and enable separation of the contributions from paramagnetic and ferromagnetic (s.l.) minerals. The comparison between the orientation of the observed magnetic lineation and that of the structural elements characterizing the internal geometry of the studied salt structures (antiforms, minor folds, faults and shear zones) and flanks indicates that the magnetic fabric is controlled by deformation processes affecting the salt walls during their growth and/or evolution. Samples were also analyzed from sixteen sites from Miocene rocks outcropping in several syn-diapiric Miocene half-grabens related to the salt walls studied. Their magnetic fabric is interpreted to reflect the dominant stretching direction at the syn-diapiric half grabens during and/or shortly after deposition. Our results indicate that caution is required in interpreting magnetic lineations related to salt flow mechanics from rocks associated with salt structures

La tasa de retorno energético desde un enfoque agroecológico y su aplicación a la evolución de la agricultura española, 1900-2010

Los análisis energéticos aplicados a la agricultura deben expresar algo más que el "coste energético" de la biomasa neta producida en beneficio de la sociedad. Deben, además, informar sobre los cambios estructurales y funcionales en los agroecosistemas que puedan afectar al mantenimiento de los servicios ambientales que éstos proporcionan. Con este fin, hemos desarrollado una propuesta metodológica que propone Tasas de Retorno Energético (TRE) con enfoque agroecológico, que complementan las TRE con enfoque económico existentes. Esta propuesta se ha aplicado a la agricultura española en tres momentos clave: la agricultura orgánica equilibrada (año 1900), el comienzo de la industrialización de la agricultura (1960) y la plena industrialización agraria (2008). Los resultados muestran la pérdida de eficiencia energética debido al proceso de industrialización y cuestionan que la intensificación haya supuesto beneficios ambientales a causa del abandono parcial de las tierras agrarias.Energy analyses applied to agriculture should express something more than the “energy cost” of the net biomass produced for the benefit of society. They should also provide information about structural and functional changes in the agro-ecosystem which might affect the maintenance of the ecosystem services which the agro-ecosystem provides. With this aim, a methodological proposal has been developed to add agro-ecological Energy Return on Investment (EROIs) to the existing economic EROIs. This proposal has been applied to Spanish agriculture at three key moments: one of balanced organic agriculture (1900), at the beginning of agriculture industrialization (1960) and full agricultural industrialization (2008). The results show the energy efficiency loss caused by industrialization and belie that intensification has caused environmental benefits due to the partial abandonment of agricultural land.Eje A4: Ambiente, Naturaleza y AgroecologíaFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Positron emission tomography of the airway distribution of intranasal challenge solutions

Abstract of: Scientific Sessions: 2007 AAAAI Annual Meeting, February 23-27, San Diego, CAIntranasal administration is one of the main routes of allergen challenge in mouse models of airway disease. Although it is widely used, it is not well established the amount of allergen that reaches the lung or is lost to the gastrointestinal tract. The local distribution of the challenge solution within the airways is also unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the distribution immediately after intranasal delivery using a Positron Emission Tomography scanner (PET)FIS 01/0598 and Foundation SEAICPublicad

La tasa de retorno energético desde un enfoque agroecológico y su aplicación a la evolución de la agricultura española, 1900-2010

Los análisis energéticos aplicados a la agricultura deben expresar algo más que el "coste energético" de la biomasa neta producida en beneficio de la sociedad. Deben, además, informar sobre los cambios estructurales y funcionales en los agroecosistemas que puedan afectar al mantenimiento de los servicios ambientales que éstos proporcionan. Con este fin, hemos desarrollado una propuesta metodológica que propone Tasas de Retorno Energético (TRE) con enfoque agroecológico, que complementan las TRE con enfoque económico existentes. Esta propuesta se ha aplicado a la agricultura española en tres momentos clave: la agricultura orgánica equilibrada (año 1900), el comienzo de la industrialización de la agricultura (1960) y la plena industrialización agraria (2008). Los resultados muestran la pérdida de eficiencia energética debido al proceso de industrialización y cuestionan que la intensificación haya supuesto beneficios ambientales a causa del abandono parcial de las tierras agrarias.Energy analyses applied to agriculture should express something more than the “energy cost” of the net biomass produced for the benefit of society. They should also provide information about structural and functional changes in the agro-ecosystem which might affect the maintenance of the ecosystem services which the agro-ecosystem provides. With this aim, a methodological proposal has been developed to add agro-ecological Energy Return on Investment (EROIs) to the existing economic EROIs. This proposal has been applied to Spanish agriculture at three key moments: one of balanced organic agriculture (1900), at the beginning of agriculture industrialization (1960) and full agricultural industrialization (2008). The results show the energy efficiency loss caused by industrialization and belie that intensification has caused environmental benefits due to the partial abandonment of agricultural land.Eje A4: Ambiente, Naturaleza y AgroecologíaFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale