Evaluation of Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts Based on EPS for a Mountainous Basin in Turkey

AbstractWhen designing water structures or managing a watershed it is a challenging task to determine the response of a basin to storm and/or snowmelt. In this study, the Upper Euphrates Basin (10,275 km2 area and elevation range of 1125-3500 m) located at the headwater of Euphrates River, one of Turkey's most important rivers, is selected as the application area. In this region, snowmelt runoff constitutes approximately 2/3 in volume of the total yearly runoff, therefore, runoff modeling and forecasting during spring and early summer is important in terms of energy and water resources management. The aim of the study is to make a forward-oriented, medium-range flow forecasting using Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) which is a pioneer study for Turkey. Conceptual hydrological model HBV, which has a common usage in the literature, is chosen to predict streamflows. According to the results, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies are 0.85 for calibration (2001-2008) and 0.71 for validation (2009-2014) respectively. After calibrating/validating the hydrologic model, EPS data including 51 different combinations produced by ECMWF is used as probability based weather forecasts. Melting period during March-June of 2011 is chosen as the forecast period. The probabilistic skill of EPS based hydrological model results are analyzed to verify the ensemble forecasts

Beyond Functional Diversity: The Importance of Trophic Position to Understanding Functional Processes in Community Evolution

Ecosystem structure—that is the species present, the functions they represent, and how those functions interact—is an important determinant of community stability. This in turn aects how ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic crises, and whether species or the ecological functions that they represent are able to persist. Here we use fossil data from museum collections, literature, and the Paleobiology Database to reconstruct trophic networks of Tethyan paleocommunities fromthe Anisian and Carnian (Triassic), Bathonian (Jurassic), and Aptian (Cretaceous) stages, and compare these to a previously reconstructed trophic network from a modern Jamaican reef community. We generated model food webs consistent with functional structure and taxon richnesses of communities, and compared distributions of guild level parameters among communities, to assess the eect of the Mesozoic Marine Revolution on ecosystem dynamics. We found that the trophic space of communities expanded from the Anisian to the Aptian, but this pattern was notmonotonic.We also found that trophic position for a given guild was subject to variation depending on what other guilds were present in that stage. The Bathonian showed the lowest degree of trophic omnivory by top consumers among all Mesozoic networks, and was dominated by longer food chains. In contrast, the Aptian network displayed a greater degree of short food chains and trophic omnivory that we attribute to the presence of large predatory guilds, such as sharks and bony fish. Interestingly, the modern Jamaican community appeared to have a higher proportion of long chains, as was the case in the Bathonian. Overall, results indicate that trophic structure is highly dependent on the taxa and ecological functions present, primary production experienced by the community, and activity of top consumers. Results from this study point to a need to better understand trophic position when planning restoration activities because a community may be so altered by human activity that restoring a species or its interactions may no longer be possible, and alternatives must be considered to restore an important function. Further work may also focus on elucidating the precise roles of top consumers in moderating network structure and community stability

From vineyards to feedlots: a fund-flow scanning of sociometabolic transition in the Vallès County (Catalonia) 1860-1956-1999

We analyse the changes to agricultural metabolism in four municipalities of Vallès County (Catalonia, Iberia) by accounting for their agroecosystemfunds and flows during the socioecological transition from organic to industrial farming between the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The choice of three different stages in this transition allows us to observe the transformation of its funds and flows over time, the links established between them and the effect on their energy profiles.We emphasize the relevance of the integration and consistency of agroecosystem funds for energy efficiency in agriculture and their role as underlying historical drivers of this socioecological transition. While readjustment to market conditions and availability and affordability of external inputs are considered the main drivers of the transition, we also highlight the role of societal energy and nutritional transitions. An analysis of advanced organic agriculture c. 1860 reveals the great effort required to reproduce soil fertility and livestock from the internal recirculation of biomass. Meanwhile, a balance between land produce and livestock densities enabled the integration of funds, with a positive impact on energy performance. The adoption of fossil fuels and synthetic fertilizers c. 1956 reduced somewhat the pressure exerted on the land by overcoming the former dependence on local biomass flows to reproduce the agroecosystem. Yet external inputs diminished sustainability. Partial dependence on external markets existed congruently with internal crop diversity and the predominance of organic over industrial farm management. A shift towards animal production and consumption led to a new specialization process c. 1999 that resulted in crop homogenization and agroecological landscape disintegration. The energy returns of this linear feed-food livestock bioconversion declined compared to earlier mixed farming. Huge energy flows driven by a globalized economy ran through this agroecosystem, provoking deep impacts at both a local and external scale

Il faut refaire l'Europe des savants

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Real time snow recognition from msg satellite for mountainous areas

In Hydrology Satellite Application Facilities (HydroSAF) Project which is a financially supported project by EUMETSAT, the use of snow products retrieved from satellite images in hydrological applications and to observe the impact of the products are key issues. Turkey is a part of the HydroSAF project, both in developing satellite derived snow products (snow recognition, effective snow cover, and snow water equivalent) for mountainous areas, cal/val of satellite-derived snow products with ground observations and impact studies with hydrological modeling in the mountainous terrain of Europe. The snow recognition product for mountainous regions is evaluated in this paper. An algorithm has been developed for snow recognition over mountainous areas of Europe. The proposed algorithm uses Satellite Application Facility to support Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting's (SAFNWC) cloud products. Two main validation processes have been applied for the snow cover product belonging to 19th January 2008 produced with SEVIRI data. First, the comparison of the SEVIRI snow cover product with the snow cover product produced from a single NOAA AVHRR data for the same date 19th January 2008 has been performed. Second, SEVIRI snow cover product was validated with 43 synoptic weather stations distributed over Europe

Pinhole SPECT imaging of dopamine transporters correlates with dopamine transporter immunohistochemical analysis in the MPTP mouse model of Parkinson's disease

The in vivo analysis of dopaminergic degeneration in animal models of Parkinson's disease (PD), using pinhole single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), ideally should afford a serial study design, enabling the analysis of the degenerative process as well as the potential neuroprotective and/or restorative properties of drugs over time in living animals. Previously, we demonstrated that striatal dopamine transporter (DAT) levels in rats could be analyzed reproducibly, using pinhole SPECT with the DAT probe [(123)I]N-omega-fluoropropyl-2beta-carbomethoxy-3beta-{4-iodophenyl}nortropane (FP-CIT). However, the capacity of this approach to accurately detect a range of striatal DAT levels in the most widely used animal model of PD, i.e., the 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP)-treated mouse, remains to be determined. For this purpose, various levels of DAT were induced by treating c57BL/6J mice for 1, 3, or 5 days with MPTP (25 mg/kg ip), respectively. [(123)I]FP-CIT SPECT scans were performed 5 days after the last MPTP injection. Mice were perfused 6 days after the last MPTP injection, and the SPECT data were compared to ex vivo striatal and nigral DAT levels as measured by immunohistochemistry within the same animals. The analysis of striatal DAT levels using SPECT and DAT immunohistochemistry yielded highly comparable results on the percentage of DAT reduction in each MPTP group. The in vivo data showed a decrease of specific striatal to non-specific binding ratios by 59%, 82%, and 76% in mice treated for 1, 3, and 5 days, respectively. Moreover, a strong, positive correlation was observed between the in vivo and ex vivo parameters. The present study provides the first evidence that [(123)I]FP-CIT pinhole SPECT allows the accurate detection of a range of striatal DAT (i.e., losses of approximately 60-80%) levels in mice. Since such large dopaminergic lesions could be detected, this SPECT method may at least be useful for analyzing neuroprotective treatment with a clear-cut positive (i.e., complete protection) or negative (i.e., not any protection) effect. Whether this method is also useful for analyzing more subtle effects of neuroprotective treatment (partial protection) remains to be established, by studying mice with small dopaminergic lesions

Reliability and Construct Validity of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised in a Swedish Non-Criminal Sample - A Multimethod Approach including Psychophysiological Correlates of Empathy for Pain

Cross-cultural investigation of psychopathy measures is important for clarifying the nomological network surrounding the psychopathy construct. The Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (PPI-R) is one of the most extensively researched self-report measures of psychopathic traits in adults. To date however, it has been examined primarily in North American criminal or student samples. To address this gap in the literature, we examined PPI-R's reliability, construct validity and factor structure in non-criminal individuals (N = 227) in Sweden, using a multimethod approach including psychophysiological correlates of empathy for pain. PPI-R construct validity was investigated in subgroups of participants by exploring its degree of overlap with (i) the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV), (ii) self-rated empathy and behavioral and physiological responses in an experiment on empathy for pain, and (iii) additional self-report measures of alexithymia and trait anxiety. The PPI-R total score was significantly associated with PCL:SV total and factor scores. The PPI-R Coldheartedness scale demonstrated significant negative associations with all empathy subscales and with rated unpleasantness and skin conductance responses in the empathy experiment. The PPI-R higher order Self-Centered Impulsivity and Fearless Dominance dimensions were associated with trait anxiety in opposite directions (positively and negatively, respectively). Overall, the results demonstrated solid reliability (test-retest and internal consistency) and promising but somewhat mixed construct validity for the Swedish translation of the PPI-R