Analyzing the Effects of Climate Change for the Water Tower of Mesopotamia, Türkiye​​​​​​​

This study aims to analyze future snowmelt runoff and snow extent for the Upper Euphrates Basin (41 109 km2) which is the most upstream basin of the water tower Mesopotamia and located in the Eastern mountainous part of Türkiye. The future characterization of snowmelt runoff and snow water equivalent is investigated taking the regional climate model projections into account through hydrological model applications. The basin is divided into two major sub-basins Karasu Basin and Murat Basin. The conceptual hydrological models, HBV and HEC-HMS have been utilized to establish a rainfall-runoff relationship. The models are calibrated and validated with observed daily total precipitation and average temperature data for the 1980–2011 period. Future projections are selected for the 2025–2100 periods using EU-CORDEX data with various global circulation models. MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5 data sets and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are used for future projections. The results indicate a decrease in snow cover extent and an increase in snowmelt runoff. The overall assessment will help us to understand how these changes will affect the operations of water resources systems (downstream reservoirs) in terms of flood control, energy production, irrigation, water supply, etc.</p

From vineyards to feedlots: a fund-flow scanning of sociometabolic transition in the Vallès County (Catalonia) 1860-1956-1999

We analyse the changes to agricultural metabolism in four municipalities of Vallès County (Catalonia, Iberia) by accounting for their agroecosystemfunds and flows during the socioecological transition from organic to industrial farming between the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The choice of three different stages in this transition allows us to observe the transformation of its funds and flows over time, the links established between them and the effect on their energy profiles.We emphasize the relevance of the integration and consistency of agroecosystem funds for energy efficiency in agriculture and their role as underlying historical drivers of this socioecological transition. While readjustment to market conditions and availability and affordability of external inputs are considered the main drivers of the transition, we also highlight the role of societal energy and nutritional transitions. An analysis of advanced organic agriculture c. 1860 reveals the great effort required to reproduce soil fertility and livestock from the internal recirculation of biomass. Meanwhile, a balance between land produce and livestock densities enabled the integration of funds, with a positive impact on energy performance. The adoption of fossil fuels and synthetic fertilizers c. 1956 reduced somewhat the pressure exerted on the land by overcoming the former dependence on local biomass flows to reproduce the agroecosystem. Yet external inputs diminished sustainability. Partial dependence on external markets existed congruently with internal crop diversity and the predominance of organic over industrial farm management. A shift towards animal production and consumption led to a new specialization process c. 1999 that resulted in crop homogenization and agroecological landscape disintegration. The energy returns of this linear feed-food livestock bioconversion declined compared to earlier mixed farming. Huge energy flows driven by a globalized economy ran through this agroecosystem, provoking deep impacts at both a local and external scale

Real time snow recognition from msg satellite for mountainous areas

In Hydrology Satellite Application Facilities (HydroSAF) Project which is a financially supported project by EUMETSAT, the use of snow products retrieved from satellite images in hydrological applications and to observe the impact of the products are key issues. Turkey is a part of the HydroSAF project, both in developing satellite derived snow products (snow recognition, effective snow cover, and snow water equivalent) for mountainous areas, cal/val of satellite-derived snow products with ground observations and impact studies with hydrological modeling in the mountainous terrain of Europe. The snow recognition product for mountainous regions is evaluated in this paper. An algorithm has been developed for snow recognition over mountainous areas of Europe. The proposed algorithm uses Satellite Application Facility to support Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting's (SAFNWC) cloud products. Two main validation processes have been applied for the snow cover product belonging to 19th January 2008 produced with SEVIRI data. First, the comparison of the SEVIRI snow cover product with the snow cover product produced from a single NOAA AVHRR data for the same date 19th January 2008 has been performed. Second, SEVIRI snow cover product was validated with 43 synoptic weather stations distributed over Europe

Review of snow data assimilation methods for hydrological, land surface, meteorological and climate models: Results from a COST harmosnow survey

The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1404 “HarmoSnow”, entitled, “A European network for a harmonized monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather prediction” (2014-2018) aims to coordinate efforts in Europe to harmonize approaches to validation, and methodologies of snow measurement practices, instrumentation, algorithms and data assimilation (DA) techniques. One of the key objectives of the action was “Advance the application of snow DA in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological models and show its benefit for weather and hydrological forecasting as well as other applications.” This paper reviews approaches used for assimilation of snow measurements such as remotely sensed and in situ observations into hydrological, land surface, meteorological and climate models based on a COST HarmoSnow survey exploring the common practices on the use of snow observation data in different modeling environments. The aim is to assess the current situation and understand the diversity of usage of snow observations in DA, forcing, monitoring, validation, or verification within NWP, hydrology, snow and climate models. Based on the responses from the community to the questionnaire and on literature review the status and requirements for the future evolution of conventional snow observations from national networks and satellite products, for data assimilation and model validation are derived and suggestions are formulated towards standardized and improved usage of snow observation data in snow DA. Results of the conducted survey showed that there is a fit between the snow macro-physical variables required for snow DA and those provided by the measurement networks, instruments, and techniques. Data availability and resources to integrate the data in the model environment are identified as the current barriers and limitations for the use of new or upcoming snow data sources. Broadening resources to integrate enhanced snow data would promote the future plans to make use of them in all model environments

Impaired Antibody Response Is Associated with Histone-Release, Organ Dysfunction and Mortality in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Purpose: the pathophysiologic mechanisms explaining differences in clinical outcomes following COVID-19 are not completely described. This study aims to investigate antibody responses in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in relation to inflammation, organ failure and 30-day survival. Methods: All patients with PCR-verified COVID-19 and gave consent, and who were admitted to a tertiary Intensive care unit (ICU) in Sweden during March-September 2020 were included. Demography, repeated blood samples and measures of organ function were collected. Analyses of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgM, IgA and IgG) in plasma were performed and correlated to patient outcome and biomarkers of inflammation and organ failure. Results: A total of 115 patients (median age 62 years, 77% male) were included prospectively. All patients developed severe respiratory dysfunction, and 59% were treated with invasive ventilation. Thirty-day mortality was 22.6% for all included patients. Patients negative for any anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody in plasma during ICU admission had higher 30-day mortality compared to patients positive for antibodies. Patients positive for IgM had more ICU-, ventilator-, renal replacement therapy- and vasoactive medication-free days. IgA antibody concentrations correlated negatively with both SAPS3 and maximal SOFA-score and IgM-levels correlated negatively with SAPS3. Patients with antibody levels below the detection limit had higher plasma levels of extracellular histones on day 1 and elevated levels of kidney and cardiac biomarkers, but showed no signs of increased inflammation, complement activation or cytokine release. After adjusting for age, positive IgM and IgG antibodies were still associated with increased 30-day survival, with odds ratio (OR) 7.1 (1.5-34.4) and 4.2 (1.1-15.7), respectively. Conclusion: In patients with severe COVID-19 requiring intensive care, a poor antibody response is associated with organ failure, systemic histone release and increased 30-day mortality

Snow Data Assimilation and Evaluation Methods for Hydrological, Land Surface, Meteorological and Climate Models – A COST Action HarmoSnow Assessment Questionnaire

This chapter is based on outcomes of the working group 3 Questionnaire of the COST Action ES1404 (www.harmosnow.eu) and provides a discussion of snow data assimilation in research and operational applications, which will be presented in detail in a manuscript (Helmert et al., 2018)