Indirect estimation of the comparative treatment effect in pharmacogenomic subgroups

Evidence of clinical utility is a key issue in translating pharmacogenomics into clinical practice. Appropriately designed randomized controlled trials generally provide the most robust evidence of the clinical utility, but often only data from a pharmacogenomic association study are available. This paper details a method for reframing the results of pharmacogenomic association studies in terms of the comparative treatment effect for a pharmacogenomic subgroup to provide greater insight into the likely clinical utility of a pharmacogenomic marker, its' likely cost effectiveness, and the value of undertaking the further (often expensive) research required for translation into clinical practice. The method is based on the law of total probability, which relates marginal and conditional probability. It takes as inputs: the prevalence of the pharmacogenomic marker in the patient group of interest, prognostic effect of the pharmacogenomic marker based on observational association studies, and the unstratified comparative treatment effect based on one or more conventional randomized controlled trials. The critical assumption is that of exchangeability across the included studies. The method is demonstrated using a case study of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C19 genotype and the anti-platelet agent clopidogrel. Indirect subgroup analysis provided insight into relationship between the clinical utility of genotyping CYP2C19 and the risk ratio of cardiovascular outcomes between CYP2C19 genotypes for individuals using clopidogrel. In this case study the indirect and direct estimates of the treatment effect for the cytochrome P450 2C19 subgroups were similar. In general, however, indirect estimates are likely to have substantially greater risk of bias than an equivalent direct estimate.Michael J. Sorich, Michael Coory, Brita A. K. Pekarsk

Extrapolation of survival curves using standard parametric models and flexible parametric spline models: comparisons in large registry cohorts with advanced cancer

Background: It is often important to extrapolate survival estimates beyond the limited follow-up times of clinical trials. Extrapolated survival estimates can be highly sensitive to model choice; thus, appropriate model selection is crucial. Flexible parametric spline models have been suggested as an alternative to standard parametric models; however, their ability to extrapolate is not well understood. Aim: To determine how well standard parametric and flexible parametric spline models predict survival when fitted to registry cohorts with artificially right-censored follow-up times. Methods: Adults with advanced breast, colorectal, small cell lung, non–small cell lung, or pancreatic cancer with a potential follow-up time of 10 y were selected from the SEER 1973–2015 registry data set. Patients were classified into 15 cohorts by cancer and age group at diagnosis (18–59, 60–69, 70+ y). Follow-up times for each cohort were right censored at 20%, 35%, and 50% survival. Standard parametric models (exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, log-logistic, log-normal, generalized gamma) and spline models (proportional hazards, proportional odds, normal/probit) were fitted to the 10-y data set and the 3 right-censored data sets. Predicted 10-y restricted mean survival time and percentage surviving at 10 y were compared with the observed values. Results: Across all data sets, the spline odds and spline normal models most frequently gave accurate predictions of 10-y survival outcomes. Visually, spline models tended to demonstrate better fit to the observed hazard functions than standard parametric models, both in the censored and 10-y data. Conclusions: In these cohorts, where there was little uncertainty in the observed data, the spline models performed well when extrapolating beyond the observed data. Spline models should be routinely included in the set of models that are fitted when extrapolating cancer survival data

Risk Factors for Severe Diarrhea with an Afatinib Treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Clinical Trials

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Afatinib is an effective therapy for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) but it is associated with a relatively high incidence of severe diarrhea. The association between pre-treatment candidate predictors (age, sex, race, performance status, renal function, hemoglobin, and measures of body mass) and severe (grade ≥ 3) diarrhea was evaluated using logistic regression with pooled individual participant data from seven clinical studies. A risk score was developed based on the count of major risk factors. Overall, 184 of 1151 participants (16%) experienced severe diarrhea with use of afatinib. Body weight, body mass index, and body surface area all exhibited a prominent non-linear association where risk increased markedly at the lower range (p < 0.005). Low weight (<45 kg), female sex, and older age (≥60 years) were identified as major independent risk factors (p < 0.01). Each risk factor was associated with a two-fold increase in the odds of severe diarrhea, and this was consistent between individuals commenced on 40 mg or 50 mg afatinib. A simple risk score based on the count of these risk factors identifies individuals at lowest and highest risk (C-statistic of 0.65). Risk of severe diarrhea for individuals commenced on 40 mg afatinib ranged from 6% for individuals with no risk factors to 33% for individuals with all three risk factors

Characterising deviation from treat-to-target strategies for early rheumatoid arthritis: the first three years

INTRODUCTION: Treat-to-target (T2T) strategies using a protocol of pre-defined adjustments of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) according to disease activity improve outcomes for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, successful implementation may be limited by deviations from the protocol. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of protocol deviation, explore the reasons and identify subsets of patients in whom treatment protocols are more difficult to follow. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, treatment-naïve patients with RA of less than one year's duration, attending a dedicated early arthritis clinic between 2001 and 2013, were followed for three years from initiation of combination therapy with conventional DMARDs which was subsequently modified according to a T2T protocol. At each clinic visit, whether deviation from the protocol occurred, the type of deviation and the reasons for deviation were assessed. The relationship between protocol deviations and baseline variables was determined using linear regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 198 patients contributed 3,654 clinic visits. The prevalence of protocol deviations was 24.5% and deviation in at least at one clinic visit was experienced by 90.4% of patients. The median time to first deviation was 30 weeks. Continuing existing treatment rather than intensifying therapy was the most common type of deviation (59.9%). Patient and physician related factors were the most common reasons for deviation, each accounting for 24.7% of deviations, followed by toxicities (23.3%) and comorbidities (20.0%). The prevalence of protocol deviations was lower among patients who achieved remission after three years (13.1%; 162 deviations out of 1,228 visits) compared with those who were not in remission (30.9%; 523/1692) (P<0.0001). On multivariate analysis, only body mass index (P=0.003) and helplessness score (P=0.04) were independent predictors of protocol deviations although the predictive power of the model was not strong (R2=0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Deviation from a T2T protocol occurred in one quarter of visits, indicating that applying the T2T approach is feasible in clinical practice. Failure to escalate dose when indicated was commonly encountered, and just under half of the observed deviations were related to either toxicities or comorbidities and were therefore justifiable on clinical grounds.Nasir Wabe, Michael J Sorich, Mihir D Wechalekar, Leslie G Cleland, Leah McWilliams, Anita Lee, Llewellyn Spargo, Robert G Metcalf, Cindy Hall, Susanna M Proudman, and Michael D Wies

Personal non-commercial use only

ABSTRACT. Objective. To investigate the association between adherence to treat-to-target (T2T) protocol and disease activity, functional outcomes, and radiographic outcomes in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. Data from a longitudinal cohort of patients with early RA were used. Adherence was determined at each followup visit over 3 years according to predefined criteria. The primary endpoint was remission according to Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) criteria. Functional and radiographic outcomes measured by modified Health Assessment Questionnaire and modified total Sharp score, respectively, were secondary endpoints. Results. A total of 198 patients with 3078 clinic visits over 3 years were included in this analysis. After adjusting for relevant variables, although there was no significant association between adherence to T2T and remission rate after 1 year, the associations reached significance after 3 years for both DAS28 (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.16-2.50; p = 0.006) and SDAI criteria (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.06-3.56; p = 0.033). After 3 years, adherence was also associated with improvement in physical function (β = 0.12, 95% CI 0.06-0.18; p &lt; 0.0001). None of the radiographic outcomes were associated with adherence after either 1 or 3 years, although there was a trend for higher adherence to be associated with less radiographic progression at the end of the study (p = 0.061). Conclusion. Increased adherence to T2T was associated with better longterm disease activity and functional outcomes, which suggests that the benefit of a T2T protocol may be enhanced by ensuring adequate adherence. (J Rheumatol First Release July 15 2016; doi:10.3899/jrheum.151392

Personal non-commercial use only

ABSTRACT. Objective. To investigate the association between adherence to treat-to-target (T2T) protocol and disease activity, functional outcomes, and radiographic outcomes in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. Data from a longitudinal cohort of patients with early RA were used. Adherence was determined at each followup visit over 3 years according to predefined criteria. The primary endpoint was remission according to Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) criteria. Functional and radiographic outcomes measured by modified Health Assessment Questionnaire and modified total Sharp score, respectively, were secondary endpoints. Results. A total of 198 patients with 3078 clinic visits over 3 years were included in this analysis. After adjusting for relevant variables, although there was no significant association between adherence to T2T and remission rate after 1 year, the associations reached significance after 3 years for both DAS28 (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.16-2.50; p = 0.006) and SDAI criteria (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.06-3.56; p = 0.033). After 3 years, adherence was also associated with improvement in physical function (β = 0.12, 95% CI 0.06-0.18; p &lt; 0.0001). None of the radiographic outcomes were associated with adherence after either 1 or 3 years, although there was a trend for higher adherence to be associated with less radiographic progression at the end of the study (p = 0.061). Conclusion. Increased adherence to T2T was associated with better longterm disease activity and functional outcomes, which suggests that the benefit of a T2T protocol may be enhanced by ensuring adequate adherence

Modeling Mechanisms of In Vivo Variability in Methotrexate Accumulation and Folate Pathway Inhibition in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Cells

Methotrexate (MTX) is widely used for the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The accumulation of MTX and its active metabolites, methotrexate polyglutamates (MTXPG), in ALL cells is an important determinant of its antileukemic effects. We studied 194 of 356 patients enrolled on St. Jude Total XV protocol for newly diagnosed ALL with the goal of characterizing the intracellular pharmacokinetics of MTXPG in leukemia cells; relating these pharmacokinetics to ALL lineage, ploidy and molecular subtype; and using a folate pathway model to simulate optimal treatment strategies. Serial MTX concentrations were measured in plasma and intracellular MTXPG concentrations were measured in circulating leukemia cells. A pharmacokinetic model was developed which accounted for the plasma disposition of MTX along with the transport and metabolism of MTXPG. In addition, a folate pathway model was adapted to simulate the effects of treatment strategies on the inhibition of de novo purine synthesis (DNPS). The intracellular MTXPG pharmacokinetic model parameters differed significantly by lineage, ploidy, and molecular subtypes of ALL. Folylpolyglutamate synthetase (FPGS) activity was higher in B vs T lineage ALL (p<0.005), MTX influx and FPGS activity were higher in hyperdiploid vs non-hyperdiploid ALL (p<0.03), MTX influx and FPGS activity were lower in the t(12;21) (ETV6-RUNX1) subtype (p<0.05), and the ratio of FPGS to γ-glutamyl hydrolase (GGH) activity was lower in the t(1;19) (TCF3-PBX1) subtype (p<0.03) than other genetic subtypes. In addition, the folate pathway model showed differential inhibition of DNPS relative to MTXPG accumulation, MTX dose, and schedule. This study has provided new insights into the intracellular disposition of MTX in leukemia cells and how it affects treatment efficacy

Fluoropyrimidine type, patient age, tumour sidedness and mutation status as determinants of benefit in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with EGFR monoclonal antibodies: individual patient data pooled analysis of randomised trials from the ARCAD database

Background KRAS mutations in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are used as predictive biomarkers to select therapy with EGFR monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). Other factors may be significant determinants of benefit. Methods Individual patient data from randomised trials with a head-to-head comparison between EGFR mAb versus no EGFR mAb (chemotherapy alone or best supportive care) in mCRC, across all lines of therapy, were pooled. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared between groups. Treatment effects within the predefined KRAS biomarker subsets were estimated by adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj) and 95% confidence interval (CI). EGFR mAb efficacy was measured within the KRAS wild-type subgroup according to BRAF and NRAS mutation status. In both KRAS wild-type and mutant subgroups, additional factors that could impact EGFR mAb efficacy were explored including the type of chemotherapy, line of therapy, age, sex, tumour sidedness and site of metastasis. Results 5675 patients from 8 studies were included, all with known mCRC KRAS mutation status. OS (HRadj 0.90, 95% CI 0.84–0.98, p = 0.01) and PFS benefit (HRadj 0.73, 95% CI 0.68–0.79, p < 0.001) from EGFR mAbs was observed in the KRAS wild-type group. PFS benefit was seen in patients treated with fluorouracil (HRadj 0.75, 95% CI 0.68–0.82) but not with capecitabine-containing regimens (HRadj 1.04, 95% CI 0.86–1.26) (pinteraction = 0.002). Sidedness also interacted with EGFR mAb efficacy, with survival benefit restricted to left-sided disease (pinteraction = 0.038). PFS benefits differed according to age, with benefits greater in those under 70 (pinteraction = 0.001). The survival benefit was not demonstrated in those patients with mutations found in the KRAS, NRAS or BRAF genes. The presence of liver metastases interacted with EGFR mAb efficacy in patients with KRAS mutant mCRC (pinteraction = 0.004). Conclusion The benefit provided by EGFR mAbs in KRAS WT mCRC is associated with left-sided primary tumour location, younger patient age and absence of NRAS or BRAF mutations. Survival benefit is observed with fluorouracil but not capecitabine. Exploratory results support further research in KRAS mutant mCRC without liver metastases