The growing importance of oceanic moisture sources for continental precipitation

The precipitation that falls on the continents defines the extent and nature of terrestrial ecosystems and human activity in them, all of which are adapted to and maintained by present-day precipitation. In essence, precipitation is supplied by moisture that either comes directly from the ocean, or is subsequently recycled from the continents themselves. Both the processes that control evaporation and the main mechanisms of moisture transport clearly differ between the ocean and the continent, thus within the context of a changing climate, it may be expected that the relationship between precipitation of oceanic and terrestrial origin varies globally and regionally, as will the influence of these two basic components of total precipitation on global and regional precipitation trends, especially in tropical regions. We describe an approach based on a Lagrangian technique for estimating the precipitation in a target region given the proportions of moisture transported from the two sources (ocean and continent) to reveal that the percentage of precipitation of oceanic origin has increased globally in the current climate (1980–2016). The greatest observed rate of increase is in the tropical regions; furthermore, the trends of precipitation in these regions are controlled by trends in precipitation for which the source of moisture is the ocean.Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. RTI2018-095772-B-I00Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B 2019/070Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2017/64-GR

Fractional importance of various moisture sources influencing precipitation in Iran using a comparative analysis of analytical hierarchy processes and machine learning techniques

Studying the moisture sources responsible for precipitation in Iran is highly important. In recent years, moisture sources that influence precipitation across Iran have been studied using various methods. In this study, moisture uptake rate from individual sources that influences precipitation across Iran has been determined using the (E − P) values obtained by the FLEXPART model for the 1981–2015 period. Then, moisture uptake rate from individual sources has been used as independent parameters to investigate the fractional importance of moisture sources that influence precipitation in Iran using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as well as machine learning (ML) methods including artificial neural networks, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gboost, and XGboost. Furthermore, the average annual precipitation in Iran was simulated using ML methods. The results showed that the Arabian Sea has a dominant fractional influence on precipitation in both wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) periods. Simulation of precipitation amounts using the ML methods presented accurate models during the wet period, whereas the developed models for the dry period were not adequate. Finally, validation of the accuracy of the ML models using RMSE and R2 values showed that the models developed using XGboost had the highest accuracy.Mahidol University | Ref. MU-PD-2021-13Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2019/070Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/4

CRONOLOGÍA, ESTACIONALIDAD Y MAGNITUD DE LOS CICLONES TROPICALES QUE HAN AFECTADO A LA PROVINCIA DE CIEGO DE ÁVILA. PERÍODO 1851-2012

Se hace un estudio de los ciclones tropicales (CT) que han afectado a la provincia de Ciego de Ávila durante el período comprendido entre el 1851 al 2013. Se realizó una descripción climatológica de estos organismos tropicales, se halló la función de distribución que mejor ajusta la serie utilizada y se calcularon los períodos de retorno para los ciclones tropicales, huracanes y grandes huracanes. Se halló la distribución de frecuencias según las zonas más ciclogenéticas y se estudian las variaciones y las tendencias que experimentaron los ciclones tropicales y huracanes durante dicho período. Este trabajo mejorará nuestros conocimientos acerca de los ciclones tropicales. Es de mucha utilidad en la evaluación de riesgos y vulnerabilidad de diferentes poblaciones y objetivos económicos de nuestra provincia. Este trabajo servirá para una mejor comprensión de los huracanes y su impacto en una nueva etapa de alta actividad ciclónica.

A rama atmosférica do ciclo hidrolóxico. Dende a evaporación oceánica ata a precipitación nos continentes

Este libro presenta unha caracterización da rama atmosférica do ciclo hidrolóxico baseada na relación entre fontes e sumidoiros e o transporte de humidade. Nela analízanse os principais mecanismos e procesos relacionados co transporte de humidade e revísase a localización das principais fontes oceánicas e terrestres e as rexións influenciadas por elas. Ademais, faise fincapé nos extremos hidrometeorolóxicos (secas e inundacións) e as suas principais causas ademais do efecto do cambio climático nesta rama do ciclo hidrolóxico. Esta monografía pretende de realizar unha síntese dos principais factores involucrados no ciclo hidrolóxico e no transporte de humidade cara os continentes; resultando nun libro de consulta especialmente indicado para o alumnado de materias medioambientais tanto de grao coma mestrado, así coma para o alumnado de doutoramento ou persoas que queiran iniciarse na investigación da vertente atmosférica do ciclo hidrolóxico

Moisture source identification for precipitation associated with tropical cyclone development over the Indian Ocean: a Lagrangian approach

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUGIn this study, we investigated the moisture sources for precipitation through a Lagrangian approach during the genesis, intensification, and dissipation phases of all tropical cyclones (TCs) that occurred over the two hemispheric sub-basins of the Indian Ocean (IO) from 1980 to 2018. In the North IO (NIO), TCs formed and reached their maximum intensity on both sides of the Indian Peninsula, to the east in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and to the west in the Arabian Sea (AS). The oceanic areas where TCs occurred were their main moisture sources for precipitation associated with TCs. Additionally, for TCs over the BoB, continental sources from the Ganges River basin and the South China Sea also played a notable role; for TCs over the AS, the Somali Low-Level jet (along the African coast in a northerly direction) also acted as an essential moisture transport. In the South IO (SIO), the western, central, and eastern basins were identified as the preferred areas for the genesis and development of TCs. During TC activity, the central IO and the Wharton and Perth basins mostly supplied atmospheric moisture. The Mascarene High circulation was the main moisture transport mechanism for the precipitation of TCs formed in the SIO basin. In both basins, during their intensification process, TCs gained more moisture (even more intensely when reaching the hurricane category) than during the genesis or dissipation stages. Additionally, the modulation during monsoonal seasons of the moisture contribution to the TCs was more noticeable over the NIO basin than for the SIO. Overall, the moisture uptake for precipitation from the sources for TCs occurred slightly faster in the NIO basin than in the SIO basin.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B 2019/070Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2020/193Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. RTI2018-095772-B-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I0

Vegetation greenness sensitivity to precipitation and its oceanic and terrestrial component in selected biomes and ecoregions of the world

In this study, we conducted a global assessment of the sensitivity of vegetation greenness (VGS) to precipitation and to the estimated Lagrangian precipitation time series of oceanic (PLO) and terrestrial (PLT) origin. The study was carried out for terrestrial ecosystems consisting of 9 biomes and 139 ecoregions during the period of 2001–2018. This analysis aimed to diagnose the vegetative response of vegetation to the dominant component of precipitation, which is of particular interest considering the hydroclimatic characteristics of each ecoregion, climate variability, and changes in the origin of precipitation that may occur in the context of climate change. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) was used as an indicator of vegetation greenness. Without consideration of semi-arid and arid regions and removing the role of temperature and radiation, the results show the maximum VGS to precipitation in boreal high-latitude ecoregions that belong to boreal forest/taiga: temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands. Few ecoregions, mainly in the Amazon basin, show a negative sensitivity. We also found that vegetation greenness is generally more sensitive to the component that contributes the least to precipitation and is less stable throughout the year. Therefore, most vegetation greenness in Europe is sensitive to changes in PLT and less to PLO. In contrast, the boreal forest/taiga in northeast Asia and North America is more sensitive to changes in PLO. Finally, in most South American and African ecoregions, where PLT is crucial, the vegetation is more sensitive to PLO, whereas the contrast occurs in the northern and eastern ecoregions of Australia.Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2021/134Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481D 2022/020Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. RYC2021-034044-

Coastal flooding associated with hurricane Irma in Central Cuba (Ciego de Ávila Province)

Irma was a major hurricane that developed during the 2017 season. It was a category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane wind scale. This hurricane caused severe damage in the Caribbean area and the Florida Keys. The social, economic, and environmental impacts, mainly related to coastal flooding, were also significant in Cuba. The maximum limits of coastal flooding caused by this hurricane were determined in this research. Field trips and the use of the GPS supported our work, which focused on both the northern and southern coasts of the Ciego de Ávila province. This work has been critical for improving coastal flooding scenarios related to a strong hurricane, as it has been the first experience according to hurricane data since 1851. Results showed that the Punta Alegre and Júcaro towns were the most affected coastal towns. The locals had never seen similar flooding in these places before. The differences between flood areas associated with Hurricane Irma and previous modeled hazard scenarios were evident (the flooded areas associated with Hurricane Irma were smaller than those modeled for categories 1, 3, and 5 hurricanes). The effects of this hurricane on the most vulnerable coastal settlements, including the impacts on the archeological site “Los Buchillones”, were also assessed.Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. RYC2021-034044-

How much of precipitation over the Euroregion Galicia - Northern Portugal is due to tropical-origin cyclones?: A Lagrangian approach

Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00Universidade de Vigo/CISU

Oceanic and terrestrial origin of precipitation over 50 major world river basins: Implications for the occurrence of drought

The terrestrial and oceanic origins of precipitation over 50 major river basins worldwide were investigated for the period 1980–2018. For this purpose, we used a Lagrangian approximation that calculates the humidity that results in precipitation from the entire ocean area (ocean component of the precipitation, PLO) and the entire land area (land component, PLT) as well as the sum of both components (Lagrangian precipitation, PL). PL and its components were highly correlated with precipitation over the basins, where PLT accounted for >50 % of the PL in most of them. This confirmed the importance assigned by previous studies to terrestrial recycling of precipitation and moisture transport within the continents. However, the amount of PLO in almost all North American river basins was highlighted. The assessment of drought conditions through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a temporal scale of 1- and 3-months revealed the number of drought episodes that affected each river basin, especially the Amazon, Congo, and Nile, because of the lower number of episodes but higher average severity and duration. A direct relationship between the severity of drought episodes and the respective severity computed on the oceanic and terrestrial SPI series was also found for the majority of basins. This highlights the influence of the severity of the SPI of oceanic origin for most basins in North America. However, for certain basins, we found an inverse relationship between the severity of drought and the associated severity according to the SPI of oceanic or terrestrial origin, thus highlighting the principal drought attribution. Additionally, a copula analysis provided new information that illustrates the estimated conditional probability of drought for each river basin in relation to the occurrence of drought conditions of oceanic or terrestrial origin, which revealed the possible main driver of drought severity in each river basin.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2019/070Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2021/134Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481A-2020/193Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. RTI2018-095772-B-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-122314OB-I00Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISU

Sigatoka negra (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) y seguridad alimentaria. Escenarios bioclimáticos en bananos bajo efecto del cambio climático en Ciego de Ávila, Cuba

The negative evidence of climate change of high importance for the future agricultural production and the need of foodsovereignty and security, impose to develop research to predict the phenology of plants and their pests, mainly those ofeconomic importance. The aim of this work is to interpret the epidemiological behavior of the black Sigatoka disease(Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) in banana for the years 2020 and 2025 under the effects of climate change in Ciego deAvila. There were made bioclimatic scenarios using daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature andaccumulated rainfall of 14 days generated by the Regional Climatic Model "PRECIS Caribbean" with boundary conditions of the global model ECHAM - 4 for future climate projections under scenarios of emission A2 and B2. The keyindicators of this disease: "Sum of Speed " and the "Evolution state" of 4 leaves were obtained. The results show Sumsspeeds above 11000 thermo-physiological units, as well as a continuous and progressive increase in the "Evolution State"with values above 500 units during the analyzed years. We infers will occur an increase in the number of treatments andthe plant protection cost, which implies the need to draw integrated management measures that include agro-ecologicalprinciples, search for resistant varieties to replace those susceptible to the disease that are currently used and strengthenthe climate change adaptation and the resilience in the agricultural ecosystem.Evidencias negativas del Cambio Climático, de elevada trascendencia para el futuro productivo de la esfera agrícola y lanecesidad de una soberanía y seguridad alimentaria, imponen desarrollar investigaciones para conocer el comportamientofenológico de especies vegetales y sus plagas; fundamentalmente las de relevancia económica. El objetivo del trabajoconsiste en interpretar el comportamiento epidemiológico de la enfermedad Sigatoka negra (Mycosphaerella fijiensisMorelet) en bananos para los años 2020 y 2025 bajo efectos del cambio climático en Ciego de Ávila. Se confeccionaronescenarios bioclimáticos utilizando datos diarios de temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima y el acumulado de precipitación de 14 días generados por el Modelo Climático Regional “PRECIS CARIBE” con condiciones de frontera delmodelo global ECHAM-4 para proyecciones climáticas futuras bajo escenario de emisiones A2 y B2. Se obtuvieronindicadores fundamentales de valoración de esta patología: la “Suma de Velocidades” y el “Estado de Evolución” de 4hojas. Los resultados muestran Sumas de Velocidades por encima de 11000 unidades termo-fisiológicas, así como uncontinuo y progresivo incremento del “Estado de Evolución” con valores superiores a 500 unidades durante todos losaños analizados. Se infiere se produzca un incremento en el número de tratamientos y el costo fitosanitario, lo que supone la necesidad de trazar medidas de manejo integrado que incluyan principios agroecológicos; así como la búsqueda devariedades resistentes para sustitución de las susceptibles a la enfermedad que se emplean en la actualidad y consolidar laadaptación al cambio climático y la resiliencia en este agroecosistema