Partition-dependent framing effects in lab and field prediction markets

Many psychology experiments show that individually judged probabilities of the same event can vary depending on the partition of the state space (a framing effect called "partition-dependence"). We show that these biases transfer to competitive prediction markets in which multiple informed traders are provided economic incentives to bet on their beliefs about events. We report results of a short controlled lab study, a longer field experiment (betting on the NBA playoffs and the FIFA World Cup), and naturally-occurring trading in macro-economic derivatives. The combined evidence suggests that partition-dependence can exist and persist in lab and field prediction markets

Modelling of the Quench Process for the Optimisation of the Design and Protection of Superconducting Busbars for the LHC

The superconducting busbars powering the LHC magnets are highly stabilised with copper to reduce the probability of a quench starting in a busbar and to avoid excessive temperatures after a quench during current discharge. In order to determine the required copper stabilisation and the parameters of the protection system a finite difference program has been developed. The program numerically approximates the heat balance equation and evaluates the temperature profile after a quench as a function of time and space. The approach emphasises the modelling of heat transfer into helium. The evaluation of the temperature includes the entire quench process, i.e., the time for quench detection and the current decay

Quench simulations for superconducting elements in the LHC accelerator

The design of he protection system for he superconducting elements in an accel- erator such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC),now under construction at CERN, requires a detailed understanding of the hermo-hydraulic and electrodynamic pro- cesses during a quench.A numerical program (SPQR -Simulation Program for Quench Research)has been developed o evaluate temperature and voltage dis ri- butions during a quench as a func ion of space and ime.The quench process is simulated by approximating the heat balance equation with the finite di fference method in presence of variable cooling and powering conditions.The simulation predicts quench propagation along a superconducting cable,forced quenching with heaters,impact of eddy curren s induced by a magnetic field change,and heat trans- fer hrough an insulation layer in o helium,an adjacen conductor or other material. The simulation studies allowed a better understanding of experimental quench data and were used for determining the adequate dimensioning and protection of the highly stabilised superconducting cables for connecting magnets (busbars),opti- mising the quench heater s rip layou for the main magnets,and s udying quench back by induced eddy curren s in he superconductor.After the in roduction of the theoretical approach,some applications of he simulation model for the LHC dipole and corrector magnets are presented and he outcome of he s udies is compared with experimental data

Quench Propagation and Heating in the Superconducting 600 A Auxiliary Busbars of the LHC

In the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN 22 km of flexible superconducting cable, the auxiliary busbar cable, will conduct currents of up to 600 A to a large number of corrector magnets distributed throughout the accelerator. A prototype cable with 42 active conductors underwent several experiments to measure the hot spot temperature and the quench propagation velocity as a function of the current. The former was evaluated for various energy extraction scenarios as they are foreseen for the LHC corrector circuits. The experimental results and the heat flow simulations show that the quench behavior in this busbar prototype is strongly influenced by the heat flow through the insulation material (polyimide) into the helium bath, leading to stable configurations above the critical temperature Tc for currents between 250 A and 500 A. Special attention was paid to the study of discontinuities in the wires, like feed-throughs, where the wire is not immersed in liquid helium, and joints, where the wire cross-section is increased. The experiments and simulations led to a thorough understanding of the quench process in the wires of the prototype cable, which resulted in guidelines for the design, the use and the installation of the cable in the LHC

On the two-day oscillations and the day-to-day variability in global 3-D-modeling of the chemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region

International audienceThe integration of the photochemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region brought evidence that the system is able to respond in a nonlinear manner under certain conditions. Under the action of the diurnally-periodic insolation, the system creates subharmonic oscillations or chaos if disregarding strong diffusion, and under special conditions it possesses multiple solutions. The models used in the past were simplified and idealized in view of the number of dimensions and the consideration of the full dynamics. On the basis of our global 3-D-model of the dynamics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere (COMMA-IAP), we also found a nonlinear response in the photochemistry under realistic conditions. The model under consideration is not yet self-consistent, but the chemical model uses the dynamical fields calculated by the dynamic model. From our calculations we got period-2 oscillations of the photochemical system within confined latitudinal regions around the solstices but not during the equinoxes. The consequence of the period-2 oscillation of the chemical active minor constituents is that a marked two-day variation of the chemical heating rates is an important thermal pumping mechanism. We discuss these findings particularly in terms of the influence of realistic dynamics on the creation of nonlinear effects

Long-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study

We investigate the influence the rising concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide which have occurred since the pre-industrial era, have had on the chemistry of the mesosphere. For this investigation we use our global 3-D-model COMMA-IAP which was designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and in particular the extended mesopause region. Assumptions and approximations for the trends in the Lyman-α flux (needed for the water vapor dissociation rate), methane and the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause are necessary to accomplish this study. To approximate the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number record which extends back to 1749 and is the only solar proxy available for the Lyman-α flux prior to 1947. We assume that methane increases with a constant growth rate from the pre-industrial era to the present. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of how the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause should be specified during this period. We assume that the hygropause was dryer during pre-industrial times than the present. As a consequence of methane oxidation, the model simulation indicates that the middle atmosphere has become more humid as a result of the rising methane concentration, but with some dependence on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km in summer high latitudes, but becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The enhanced water vapor concentration increases the hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increases in CO<sub>2</sub> concentration enhance slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere. However, its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region

Long-term trends of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere ? a model study

International audienceWe investigate the influence of the rising concentrations of methane, dinitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial era upon the chemistry of the mesosphere. We use for calculations our global 3D-model COMMA-IAP designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and particularly the extended mesopause region. In order to get approximated data of the solar Lyman-? flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number available since 1749 as the only solar proxy for the Lyman-? flux before 1947. The Lyman-? flux values are employed to determine the water vapor dissociation rate. The water vapor trend analysis utilizes estimated methane trends since the pre-industrial era. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause during the time range of trend calculation. We assume that the hygropause was dryer at the pre-industrial time than currently. As a consequence of the methane oxidation, the middle atmosphere became more humid according to the rising methane concentration, but depending on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km within summery high latitudes, but it becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The growing water vapor concentration increases the hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increasing CO2 concentration enhances slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere, but its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. We discuss the trends particularly in view of the impact on the NLC region

Energy Extraction for the LHC Superconducting Circuits

The superconducting magnets of the LHC will be powered in about 1700 electrical circuits. The energy stored in circuits, up to 1.3 GJ, can potentially cause severe damage of magnets, bus bars and current leads. In order to protect the superconducting elements after a resistive transition, the energy is dissipated into a dump resistor installed in series with the magnet chain that is switched into the circuit by opening current breakers. Experiments and simulation studies have been performed to identify the LHC circuits that need energy extraction. The required values of the extraction resistors have been computed. The outcome of the experimental results and the simulation studies are presented and the design of the different energy extraction systems that operate at 600 A and at 13 kA is described

Quench Propagation in the Superconducting 6 kA Flexible Busbars of the LHC

Flexible superconducting cables with currents up to 6 kA will be used to power magnets individually in the insertion regions of the LHC. In case of a quench, the currents in these circuits will decay very fast (with time constants of about 200 ms) such that relatively small copper cross sections are sufficient for these busbars. Quench propagation experiments on a prototype cable and corresponding simulations led to a detailed understanding of the quench behavior of these busbars and to recommendations for the design and application of the cable. Simulations of the quench process in a multi-strand conductor led to a detailed understanding of the way current crosses from superconducting to pure copper strands and how this affects the quench propagation velocity. At nominal current (6 kA), the quench propagation velocities are high (10 m/s) and the hot spot temperature increases rapidly. In this situation, timely quench detection and energy extraction (current reduction) are vital to prevent damage of circuit components

How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field

A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics